Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Ravens vs. Browns

We're treated to a classic AFC North battle Monday night, as the 9-3 Browns (no, really!) are 3.0-point home underdogs to the 7-5 Ravens in a game with a 46.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns come in after winning each of their last four games, including a big 41-35 victory over Tennessee last week, a game in which they led 38-7 at halftime. Meanwhile, the Ravens have really struggled, losing four of their last five, with losses to the Patriots, Titans and Steelers. A rash for COVID issues upended the team, but they will get most of their key players back, which is why they are favored. Nevertheless, a close game will likely have most fantasy players building balanced lineups as opposed to stacks for either team.

QUARTERBACKS

Baltimore's Lamar Jackson ($11,800 DK, $17,000 FD) seems to have put his struggles behind him, as he rushed 13 times for 94 yards and a touchdown and completed 12-of-17 passes for 107 yards and two scores in last week's win over the Cowboys, his first game with three touchdowns since Week 4 against Football Team. Any consideration for Jackson has to revolve around his ability to throw touchdown passes and what he can do in the rushing game because he's passed for over 200 yards only four times this season, half of which came in the first two weeks.

His matchup looks good on paper too, as the Browns have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, which was helped by Jackson himself, who threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns and added 45 rushing yards against them back in Week 1. The Browns had improved a bit lately, allowing fewer than 240 passing yards in four straight games before Ryan Tannehill got 389 and three touchdowns against them last week; but remember, the Browns were ahead by 31 by halftime. Given the way the Ravens' offense works, Jackson will surely be very popular as a flex play and as captain/MVP.

On the other side is Baker Mayfield ($10,000 DK, $15,000 FD), who is coming off one of his best games of the season, as he completed 25-of-33 passes for a season-high 334 yards and four touchdowns against Tennessee, and he'll now get another shot at a Ravens defense that limited him to 189 yards and one touchdown in Week 1. Baltimore has been up and down this season, and while they allowed at least 265 passing yards in three straight games, including two with multiple touchdowns, the team had kind of been in COVID disarray with multiple games getting rescheduled.

We also should acknowledge that the Browns have an excellent rushing attack, and Mayfield is usually more of a complement to that than the other way around. Given that, it's tough to get overly excited about Mayfield, which makes him more of a contrarian play, especially as captain/MVP, as fantasy players who want top exposure to the Browns' offense will likely target their running backs.

RUNNING BACKS

The Ravens and Browns rank third and fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts, respectively, and first and third in rushing yards, so there will surely be fantasy players targeting their running backs. Jackson obviously hurts the Ravens' backfield a bit since he leads the team in carries (116) and rushing yards (669). However, that shouldn't completely dissuade us from the running backs even if it seems like a messy committee.

J.K. Dobbins ($8,200 DK, $11,500 FD) is most likely to lead the backfield like he did Tuesday against the Cowboys, though his 11 carries were only four more than Gus Edwards ($5,200 DK, $8,500 FD) and five more than Mark Ingram ($2,800 DK, $8,000 FD), and while he picked up 71 yards and a touchdown, Edwards rumbled for 101. And if you want to figure out who the pass-catching back is, well, they all combined for one target last week and Jackson doesn't really throw enough passes to really think about it much anyway. 

The Browns have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and only thrice have they allowed more than 100 rushing yards to the position, so it's not like we can rely on limited volume against a horrific defense.

The Cleveland situation is different in that it's only Nick Chubb ($10,200 DK, $14,500 FD) and Kareem Hunt ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD), though Chubb has been so much better on his touches that he'll surely be the more popular of the two. Hunt is more of a pass catcher even though they've run a similar number of routes recently, but if there's one guy many people will look to if they want Browns exposure, it's going to be Chubb. No running back in the league with at least 50 rushing attempts has a higher yards per carry average than Chubb's 6.0, which has helped him reach at least 80 rushing yards in six of his last seven games, including at least 114 in three of his last four. He also leads the team with seven rushing touchdowns.

The interest in Chubb is justified, but those who want a little leverage should certainly consider Hunt, who has double-digit rushing attempts in every game this season and is third among active players on the team in targets (35) and receptions (25), and he leads the team in receiving touchdowns (four), which combined with his four rushing touchdowns gives him more scores than Chubb.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD) is the most-targeted player of all players in Monday's game, but his 78 targets only rank 35th in the NFL, giving us another example of how run-heavy these teams play. He's been good of late, with 11 and 10 targets in the past two games, respectively, helping him to eight catches in each for 143 and 62 yards, two of his three highest yardage totals of the season. If you're looking for access to the Browns' pass catchers, Landry is the first place to look.

Unfortunately, you're buying into a team that's facing a defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the second-fewest touchdowns (eight). Given that situation, it makes some sense to look for cheaper options who may be able to pay off their lower salaries, which brings Rashard Higgins ($6,200 DK, $9,500 FD), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD) and Marvin Hall ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) into the discussion. Hall is brand new to the team and Peoples-Jones had his best game of the season last week when he caught two of three targets for 92 yards and a touchdown, his third game this season with multiple targets. The reason those two will be considerations is because KhaDarel Hodge is out with a hamstring injury, though Higgins is surely expected to get more opportunities anyway. 

Higgins, who caught six of nine targets for 95 yards and a touchdown last week against Tennessee, is likely to get an increase in opportunities if the Browns fall behind and have to try to catch up, but it's tough to expect a lot from a player with only two games this season with more than four targets. His 13.8 aDOT is the highest among active Browns, which is only slightly higher than Peoples-Jones' 13.7, so we can get the idea that they'll be able to make impacts with limited opportunities. Landry's 8.8 is more indicative of his value as a possession receiver, so he'll surely need volume to make him worth rostering.

However, it's not just the wide receivers who get looks from Mayfield, who also likes to throw to his tight ends. Harrison Bryant ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD) and David Njoku ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD) could see an uptick in playing time with the expectation that Austin Hooper ($5,400 DK, $7,500 FD) sits out because of the neck injury that has him officially listed as questionable. Hooper has been a pretty regular target of Mayfield, which contributes to Bryant and Njoku not having more than two targets since Week 8. However, with the wide receivers not heavily used either, other than Landry and maybe Higgins, Njoku and Bryant could get some looks (though neither will be popular).

The Ravens' pass catchers aren't much easier to trust, though they'll get two of their top options back from COVID-19 absences. Tight end Mark Andrews ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD) and Willie Snead ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD) missed the past two games due to the virus, and top wideout Marquise Brown ($7,400 DK, $10,000 FD) took advantage with eight targets in each, catching nine for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Brown leads the team in targets (75), receptions (41), receiving yards (555), air yards (1,050) and aDOT (14.4), so theoretically he should be a valuable option. However, his eight targets in the past two games tied for the second-most he's had all season, and he just doesn't get enough volume or catch enough passes to be an easy play.

Andrews is likely to be the most popular option, as he's second on the team in targets (60), receptions (38), receiving yards (454) and air yards (590), but more importantly leads the team with six touchdowns and 12 red-zone targets, including six inside the 10.

All of the other receivers are pretty much guys who should be in the player pool for those who make lots of lineups but it's tough to get excited about any, even against a Browns defense that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Snead's absence last week helped Miles Boykin ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) make an impact by scoring a 38-yard touchdown, but he did it on only three targets, the most he had had since Week 8. Snead is certainly an option after getting seven targets in three of his last four games before his COVID absence, and his cheaper price could make him somewhat popular versus Brown.

Their returns are also likely to make most people forget about Devin Duvernay ($1,600 DK, $6,500 FD), who at least has the somewhat added benefit of being a kick returner, so he will have some opportunities with the ball in his hands.

Andrews is an interesting candidate as a captain/MVP since he's one of the most reliable pass catchers in the game, though Landry is theoretically a play on the other side for those who like his consistency. Of course, he's facing a very tough Ravens' secondary while Andrews is up against a Browns defense that has allowed nine tight end touchdowns this season (the third-most in the league), including four in the past three games.

KICKERS

The recent success of the Browns' offense has been helpful to Cody Parkey's ($3,400 DK, $8,500 FD) fantasy production, while the Ravens' recent inconsistency has understandably affected Justin Tucker's ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD). A fairly modest game total should make fantasy players consider both kickers because of their floors, as guys in their price ranges like Bryant, Ingram, Boykin and Edwards may not get enough opportunities to reach similar floors. However, each of those players are more likely to score touchdowns than Parkey or Tucker kicking five or six field goals, which is what they'd have to do to reach their ceilings, which is why the kickers should be more popular in cash games and single-entry GPPs than larger-field tournaments.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

While the Ravens defense ($4,400 DK) has been solid in terms of not allowing many fantasy (or real life) points, they only forced four turnovers and recorded four sacks in the past four games. Meanwhile, the Browns had six turnovers and 10 sacks in that span, which is better but still not great.

What we should focus on is the quarterbacks, except both Mayfield and Jackson have only thrown seven interceptions each while taking 17 and 24 sacks, respectively. Neither number is that high, and given that the teams like to run a lot, we're pretty much left with hoping for highly variant situations to play out, either with a fumble recovery return for a touchdown or some kind of special teams score. It doesn't seem likely that either defense will be popular, and certainly not in the captain slot, but the Ravens will probably be more popular than the Browns if only because people think they are better.