This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football, Week 14
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Week 14 brings an AFC matchup between the Tennessee Titans (4-8) and the Miami Dolphins (9-3). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Titans vs. Dolphins Betting Odds for Monday Week 14 Football
Titans: Spread +13.5 (-102), Moneyline +600; Projected Score 16.3 points
Dolphins: Spread -13.5 (-118), Moneyline -900; Projected Score 29.8 points
Game Total: 46.0 points
Most Dolphins games are going to have significant line movement from when they originally opened as their offense has been even better in 2023 and they are the No. 1 seed in the AFC. This game opened Miami -7.5 and reopened at -11.5 on Nov. 28. It moved again in favor of the Dolphins over the last week up to -13.5 at its peak. It is also indicative of the Titans starting rookie quarterback Will Levis.
Totaling bets thus far, 96 percent of the money and 87 percent of the bets are on the Dolphins. There is 88 percent of the money on the Dolphins' moneyline, which is 97 percent of the bets. There is 92 percent of the money and 81 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Titans: DT Jeffery Simmons (OUT)
Dolphins: OT Terron Armstead (Questionable), LB Jerome Baker (OUT), LB Jaelan Phillips (OUT), OG Robert Hunt (OUT)
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Titans vs. Dolphins Betting Picks This Week
Titans vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Tua Tagovailoa OVER 286.5 passing yards (DraftKings -115) for 0.75 unit
Consider this a correlation play with the OVER team total that I cover below, as Tua has averaged over 300 passing yards in five home games. Tyreek Hill has a very high yardage prop, but he still should be able to put up decent numbers along with Jaylen Waddle to get Tua over the 286.5 passing-yards number.
Titans vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Will Levis UNDER 4.5 rushing yards (BetMGM -110) for 0.75 unit
Levis has a combined 10 rushes for a combined six yards over his last five games. This was after rushing seven times for 11 yards in his debut. He just does not look to run and even though 4.5 is a very low number, his lack of running is so low that I would look for the Dolphins to be able to keep him in the pocket.
Titans vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Dolphins OVER 30.5 points (FanDuel +100) for 1 unit
The Dolphins have averaged 38.8 points at home and the Titans passing defense will not be able to slow them down. The one concern is that the Dolphins take the Titans lightly and this plays out similar to the Raiders game, but I think that game will actually serve notice for Miami to get out to a fast start. I was looking for an OVER on the Dolphins team total for the first half, but decided to go full game.
Titans vs. Dolphins Prediction
Titans - #23 overall DVOA, #22 DVOA offense, #22 DVOA defense
Dolphins - #4 overall DVOA, #2 DVOA offense, #13 DVOA defense
The Dolphins are the No. 1 seed in the AFC and with most of the AFC Playoff picture now at 8-5 or 7-6, this is a very important game in cementing getting home field and the bye in the postseason. Miami has won three in a row and is undefeated at home, while the Titans are winless on the road.
Miami is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 home games as favorites. Tennessee is awful on the road, going 1-9 straight up in its last 10 as underdogs.
Dolphins 34, Titans 16
