NFL Best Ball Strategy: Planning Specific Stacks on Underdog and Drafters

NFL Best Ball Strategy: Planning Specific Stacks on Underdog and Drafters

This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.

When making picks in the early rounds of a best ball draft, it's helpful to know if and when you'll be able to select a stacking partner. For example, if you take Terry McLaurin (Underdog ADP 25.9) at the 2/3 turn, you should know there's not much chance Jayden Daniels (ADP 38.3) will make it back to you at the 4/5 turn. There's a much better chance of pairing Tee Higgins (24.7) and Joe Burrow (48.9), although it also seems that the viability of doing so may be inflating both of their ADPs, as I recently discussed in an article identifying the best and worst values from early drafts.

Below we'll look at some of the early stacking options and what draft position they work from, before switching over to some of the better options in the middle and late rounds. The easiest stacks to create are the ones that pair an early round WR/TE with a middle/late-round QB (e.g. Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert), as we don't lose much value when drafting Herbert in Round 8 or 9 instead of at his R10 ADP. The projected difference between picks is much larger earlier in drafts, which makes it less palatable — though not entirely off the table — to take Daniels at No. 25, for example.

(If you're looking for ADPs from early best ball drafts, you can find them all HERE, along with some of my opinions on the best and worst values.)

         

Early Stacks

        

This is one of the easiest stacks to manage, but also perhaps the priciest, with Chase going first or second overall, Higgins at the 2/3 turn and Burrow at the 4/5 turn. If you really want, you can also stack Higgins and Burrow without Chase from middle position, taking Higgins in the middle of Round 2 and Burrow in mid-R4, although that feels like a major overpay in both cases — it's not something I'll be doing.

        

This one is a bit more difficult to pull off but definitely doable, with Brown going in the middle of Round 2 (UD ADP 18.0) while Smith (41.6) and Hurts (42.5) have nearly identical ADPs in Round 4. One way to do it is from middle position, drafting Brown in Round 2 and Hurts in Round 3, then hoping for Smith to still be available Round 4. It's probably best done when picking 8th, 9th or 10th, which would mean drafting Brown at 15-17, Hurts at 32-34 and Smith at 39-41. You can also do it from late position, although it's hard for me to pull the trigger on Brown at 13th or 14th overall, ahead of players like Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty and Drake London who have much higher volume ceilings.

       

Allen's ADP is right in the middle of Round 3 and Shakir's in the middle of Round 7. That means there are a lot of ways to play this, and I don't really think it's worth reaching for Shakir, considering he's mostly been used as a possession receiver with minimal opportunities downfield and near the goal line. WR Keon Coleman (Round 10 ADP) is a cheaper, riskier fallback option, but one who arguably makes more strategic sense as a stacking partner due to the possibility of seeing more deep shots and end-zone targets. In any case, if you do want to target the Allen/Shakir stack, it's most easily done from early or middle position, taking Allen in Round 3 and then Shakir in Round 6/7. 

If you're picking from late position and take Allen at a slight discount toward the end of Round 3, you'll then have to decide between reaching for Shakir in early Round 6 or hoping he falls a few picks past ADP and lasts until late in Round 7. I'm fine with that, because Coleman in a sensible backup plan who can then be taken late in Round 9, but if you definitely want Shakir as the stacking partner then know that the value you're getting on Allen at the late-R3 price will be cancelled out by reaching for Shakir in early Round 6.

                

This one is pretty easy, with Jackson having a mid-R3 ADP (UD 31.4) and Flowers being mid-R4 (44.1). The catch is that Flowers' ADP likely is being driven up by the popularity/ease of this stack, so I do think we're subtly paying a premium even if both guys are drafted right around where they normally go. I'd rather take someone else in the fourth round and then pair Jackson with Mark Andrews (86.9) in Round 7/8 or Isaiah Likely in Round 11/12 (134.4). The best way to play it, in my opinion, is to take Jackson late in Round 3 when he falls slightly past ADP, then nab Andrews late in Round 7 slightly ahead of ADP (or Likely in Round 11 a bit ahead of his ADP).

              

I like the Worthy-Rice combination because they're very different players who thrive on different routes and in different parts of the field, plus both may get a boost in target-share projection if Travis Kelce retires and/or Hollywood Brown signs elsewhere (without being properly replaced). This stack is easiest to pull off from middle position, taking both Worthy and Rice slightly ahead of ADP. The chances of someone reaching for Mahomes before mid-R6 then go down considerably, because nobody else has any Chiefs on their team. It can also work from late position, which means getting a better deal on Worthy (late R3 instead of mid-R3) but a worse deal on Rice (early R4 instead of late-R4).

            

On Underdog, the ADPs are slightly more than two rounds apart, with Sutton at 57.8 (mid/late-R5) and Nix at 85.5 (early R8). If you take the former in Round 5, you should be able to draft the latter in Round 7, even from middle or late position. That's less probable on Drafters, where Nix has a much earlier ADP (77.6) right in the middle of Round 7. I'm willing to reach slightly for both players, taking Sutton as early as the 4/5 turn and Nix at the 5/6 turn. Fellow Bronco Marvin Mims has a 10th-round ADP, going at 114.1 on Underdog and 109.5 on Drafters; I have no problem taking him in Round 9 to pair with Nix.

       

Evans is going at 36.8 on Underdog and 31.9 on Drafters, which is one of the biggest differences for any player in the early rounds. I really like the value on UD, where his TD-heavy profile plays well in a half-PPR format. Plus, Mayfield is also going later on Underdog, at 89.3 (mid-R8) instead of 83.4 (7/8 turn). 

If you take Evans late in the third round, there's some chance to get McMillan late in the seventh (though he usually goes a bit earlier) and then Mayfield early in the eighth. The ADPs admittedly make it difficult to pair all three without reaching considerably for McMillan, but the Evans-Mayfield duo is much more easily done. Impending free agent Chris Godwin (ADP 64) is easier to tack on than McMillan, with Godwin working well at the 5/6 turn after taking Evans at the 3/4. Just remember that Godwin is coming off a major injury and has an expiring contract, so he won't necessarily be with the Buccaneers (or remain productive) in 2025.

              

Mid-Round Stacks

           

Pearsall's ADP (UD 84.6) is right at the 7/8 turn, with Purdy (99.2) going early in Round 9. There's a lot of variability with where Purdy will actually be picked, however, as Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings all typically get drafted ahead of Pearsall, which means competition for stacking. The safe way to do it is by taking both Pearsall and Purdy at the 7/8 turn, which admittedly means going about 15 picks ahead of ADP for the quarterback. We're deep enough into a draft that I'm fine with doing that to secure a teammate duo at this point, especially if we already have one of CMC/Kittle/Aiyuk/Jennings rostered. The other move is to take Pearsall in the middle of Round 7 and accept some risk of Purdy not being there mid-R8. 

            

I can't say I'm a fan of Johnston, but this one is there if you want it, with Underdog ADPs making it fairly easy to accomplish. Herbert is at 112.0 (mid-R10) and Johnston at 140.5 (mid-R12), which means you should be able to get the former in Round 11 after taking the latter in Round 9. I'd probably only consider that from late position, not wanting to reach for a player I don't like (Johnston) at ADP in the first place. I'd rather take Ladd McConkey in the middle of Round 2 and then Herbert in the middle of Round 9 (which is about 8 picks ahead of ADP, and with none of his other stacking partners having been drafted).

       

This is a natural pairing in terms of the Underdog ADPs, with Lawrence at 128.2 and Kirk at 134.7, both around the 11/12 turn (although you could also take them in Rounds 10 and 11 without losing much value). Just remember that Kirk has only one season and no guaranteed money remaining on his contract, making him one of the top candidates to be released this offseason. TE Evan Engram (UD ADP 132.9) is in the same boat, both in terms of ADP and the contract situation. 

From a financial/contract standpoint, the Jags are incentivized to give Gabe Davis (ADP 221.7) another shot and maybe move on from Engram to Brenton Strange (ADP 238.1) a shot. My favorite way to play it? Draft Brian Thomas at the 1/2 turn, followed by Lawrence and either Kirk or Engram at the 11/12 turn, and then Davis/Strange in the endgame. You then hope the pass catcher you drafted at the 11/12 turn (Kirk or Engram) ends up with a new team, which would increase the volume outlook for the Jaguars left behind. It's not like leaving Jacksonville would be a death sentence for Kirk/Engram's fantasy value.

            

Mooney's ADP is right at the 8/9 turn on both Underdog and Drafters, while Penix is at 132.2 on UD (11/12 turn) and 136 on Drafters (R12). If you're drafting from early position, you can take Mooney late in the eighth round and then Penix early in the 11th. From late position, it'd be Mooney early in the eighth and hoping for Penix late in the 11th. It thus works out better from early or middle position, and there's also the option of adding Kyle Pitts in Round 12 (ADP 145.6, 12/13 turn) if you can stomach it. 

FWIW... Mooney caught seven of 11 targets for 119 yards in the two games he played with Penix before missing Week 18. Drake London caught 12 of 21 targets for 165 yards in those same two games, before exploding for 10-187-2 in Week 18 against Carolina with Mooney on the shelf. Pitts was a dud, unsurprisingly, catching seven of 10 targets for 66 yards and a TD over the three-game stretch.

        

Downs has a mid-R8 ADP, with Pittman then going late in Round 9 and Richardson in Round 12 (140.8 on UD, 135.5 on Drafters). The trio stack works most naturally from middle position, taking Down in the eighth, Pittman in the ninth and Richardson in the 11th. Some people will prefer to take Richardson without a stacking partner, but I disagree, as he'll likely get benched again if his passing improves. If our best-ball team is making one bet on that happening, we might as well make two or three.

            

The ADP gap between these two is 21.3 spots on Underdog (122.7, 144.0) but only 13.7 spots on Drafters (126.8, 140.5). On UD, there's a decent chance Ferguson will be available late in the 12th round if we take Prescott early in the 11th. On Drafters, it makes more sense as a middle position play, still taking Prescott in the 11th and Ferguson in the 12th. I'm also fine with taking these guys in the 10th and 11th, respectively, especially on a team that already has WR CeeDee Lamb.

       

Young is going around the 12/13 turn, slightly after Xavier Legette, who has a 131.0 ADP on Underdog or 143.3 on Drafters (one of the bigger gaps between the sites). Adam Thielen is the opposite, going way later on Underdog (174.6) than he does on Drafters (149.4). The easiest combo logistically is Young in Round 12 and then Coker in Round 13, but really, there are a few different ways to play this based on personal preference and which site you're on. Panthers TE Ja'Tavion Sanders can be added on later, going at 195.4 on Underdog (R15/16) and 206.4 on Drafters (R16/17).

     

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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