NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 11 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 11 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 11 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST and features 11 games. The Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks and Buccaneers are on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Titans-Packers), Sunday Night Football (Kansas City-Chargers) and Monday Night Football (49ers-Cardinals) participants are also excluded from Sunday's main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 11, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $200,000 to the top 3,003 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 11,760 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $200k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 11 plays include a pair of affordable running backs likely to benefit from heavy workloads against bad defenses, two high-profile receivers going head to head, and the guy throwing the ball to one of those star wideouts.

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott, DAL at MIN ($29): Prescott's a nice value against a Vikings secondary that's quietly allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game. While turnovers remain a bugaboo for the Dallas quarterback, Prescott has tossed five touchdowns in his last two starts while running in another one. The Dallas-Minnesota over/under of 47.5 points is second only to Chicago-Atlanta (49.5) in what's expected to be a rather low-scoring slate, so Prescott's in position to do some damage with his arm while supplementing that output with his legs.

Honorable Mentions

Josh Allen, BUF vs. CLE ($40); Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CAR ($36); Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DET ($30)

Against the Grainers

Joe Burrow, CIN at PIT ($34); Kirk Cousins, CIN vs. DAL ($27); Marcus Mariota, ATL vs. CHI ($25)

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery, CHI at ATL ($18): All eyes have been on quarterback Justin Fields lately, but Fields is likely to come back down to earth as a rusher after mustering 325 yards and three touchdowns over the past two games, and he's still a work in progress as a passer. The threat of Fields running should open up lanes on the ground for Montgomery, who's in line for a substantial bump in workload after fellow Bears running back Khalil Herbert suffered a hip injury in a Week 10 loss to the Lions. Montgomery's the kind of old-school running back who wears down defenses and gets better with more work. In his last 20 games played, he's logged at least 20 carries five times, and six of his eight rushing touchdowns over that span have come in those five busy games. If you want to capitalize on an Atlanta defense that's giving up 399.5 scrimmage yards per game, Montgomery is a superior value proposition to Fields at $42.

Brian Robinson, WAS at HOU ($17): Houston's 181.8 rushing yards allowed per game are easily the most in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities for both Robinson and Antonio Gibson ($20). Gibson offers a bit more burst and versatility, but Washington will likely eschew Gibson's short catches and outside runs in favor of Robinson's tough inside running. Such an approach worked in the Commanders' upset of the Eagles on MNF, as Robinson rushed 26 times for 86 yards and a touchdown while Gibson turned 14 carries and three catches into 56 yards and a touchdown. If Robinson gets a similar workload in this one, he's likely to wind up posting big numbers, as all five running backs to notch at least 20 carries against the Texans this season have rushed for at least 143 yards, and those five combined for nine rushing touchdowns.

Honorable Mentions

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. DET ($33); Joe Mixon, CIN at PIT ($28); Alvin Kamara, NO vs. LAR ($24)

Against the Grainers

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DAL ($25); Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. PHI ($24); Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL vs. CHI ($22)

WIDE RECEIVER

Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. DAL ($36): With other top wide receivers battling injuries, tough matchups or the potential for brutal weather, Jefferson stands head and shoulders above the pack at the position. He's coming off a 193-yard performance in Minnesota's Week 10 win over the Bills, and Jefferson has racked up a whopping 814 receiving yards over the past six games. The 23-year-old wideout needs 88 receiving yards to pass Randy Moss for the most in a player's first three NFL seasons, and the way Jefferson's been producing lately, he could have that by halftime against a Dallas secondary that just got burned for three touchdowns by Green Bay's Christian Watson.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL at MIN ($24): If you're going to use Dak under center, Lamb becomes almost a must-have as part of a Dallas passing game stack. Even if you go a different direction at quarterback, Dallas' No. 1 wide receiver has plenty of standalone value. Lamb's receiving yardage total has trended up for four consecutive games, and he's caught 16 of 22 targets for 227 yards and three touchdowns in the past two games. Minnesota's 1,794 yards allowed to wide receivers are second most in the NFL, so both teams are likely to get elite performances out of their star receivers in this one.

Parris Campbell, IND vs. PHI ($11): If you need to clear cap space for some pricier options, Campbell's a nice bargain play at just above the minimum. The Colts' entire offense was abysmal during Sam Ehlinger's stint under center, but Campbell has quietly built up some impressive chemistry with Matt Ryan, who was reinstated as the starter last week. In the last three games started by Ryan, Campbell has caught 24 of 32 targets for 203 yards while finding the end zone in each of those games. Indianapolis will likely fall behind the 8-1 Eagles early, leading to more passes for Ryan, and thus another busy afternoon for Campbell.

Honorable Mentions

Tee Higgins, CIN at PIT ($27); Terry McLaurin, WAS at HOU ($19); Darius Slayton, NYG vs. DET ($14) 

Against the Grainers

Darnell Mooney, CHI at ATL ($19); Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at NYG ($18); Garrett Wilson, NYJ at NE ($15)

TIGHT END

Greg Dulcich, DEN vs. LV ($16): Dulcich is coming off the first dud of his young NFL career, as the rookie tight end was held to one catch by the Titans after securing 12 of 17 targets for 182 yards and one touchdown over his first three games. A bounce-back opportunity awaits at home against the Raiders, who have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends -- one short of the highest total in the league. Vegas is 0-5 on the road this season, while Denver's 2-2 at Empower Field at Mile High.

Honorable Mentions

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. CAR ($29); T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. DAL ($19); Cole Kmet, CHI at ATL ($14)

Against the Grainers

Dalton Schultz, DAL at MIN ($12); Tyler Higbee, LAR at NO ($11); Juwan Johnson, NO vs. LAR ($11)

DEFENSE

Baltimore Ravens, BAL vs. CAR ($17): In addition to Baltimore and the teams listed below, the Buffalo Bills ($19) and Cleveland Browns ($11) defenses also deserve consideration if the snowstorm in Buffalo is still raging come kickoff. The Ravens defense should find success regardless of the weather conditions, however, against a Panthers offense with limited talent. Carolina quarterback PJ Walker has been ruled out, handing the starting job back to Baker Mayfield, who had a 4:4 TD:INT and six fumbles (one lost) in five starts prior to being benched for Walker. Baltimore has had an extra week to prepare for this matchup after their bye, and the defense built up some momentum prior to its off week with 12 sacks and 27.0 fantasy points over the preceding three games. The trade deadline acquisition of tackling machine Roquan Smith should also help the Ravens against Carolina's run-heavy offense.

Honorable Mentions:

Philadelphia Eagles, PHI at IND ($22); New Orleans Saints, NO vs. LAR ($15); Washington Commanders, WAS at HOU ($12)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Jets, NYJ at NE ($18); Carolina Panthers, CAR at BAL ($12); Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT vs. CIN ($10)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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