NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 14 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 14 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 14 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 11 games. The Cardinals and Commanders will be the final two NFL teams to go on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Patriots-Steelers), Sunday Night Football (Eagles-Cowboys) and Monday Night Football (Packers-Giants and Titans-Dolphins) participants play outside the Week 14 main slate. Yahoo will run plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 14, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 14 options include a star WR stacked with his unheralded QB, a pair of rookie RBs and a defense facing an offense that's been a fantasy goldmine for opposing D/ST units lately.

QUARTERBACK

Jake Browning, CIN vs. IND ($20): None of the QBs playing in the main slate have a particularly appetizing matchup, so this could be a good week to take a chance on a bargain QB and spend most of your cap space elsewhere. Browning offers the perfect mix of upside and affordability for such a strategy, as he's coming off an exceptional performance in his second NFL start Monday. Joe Burrow's replacement completed 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and one touchdown while adding 22 yards and a touchdown on the ground to lead the Bengals to a 34-31 upset win in Jacksonville. With Browning showing he has the skills to succeed in a Cincinnati offense that includes Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins, he could be a massive bargain at the minimum valuation against a Colts defense that's allowing the seventh-most scrimmage yards per game (353.7).

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Fields, CHI vs. DET ($34); Brock Purdy, SF vs. SEA ($32); Russell Wilson, DEN at LAC ($26)

Against the Grainers:

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. LAR ($33); Gardner Minshew, IND at CIN ($27); Geno Smith, SEA at SF ($26)

RUNNING BACK

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at CHI ($28): Gibbs has scored at least 18.5 fantasy points in four of his last six games, including Week 11 against the Bears. He outscored fellow Lions RB David Montgomery in that game, and Gibbs' superior pass catching ability could help him once again finish as the team's top backfield performer against this NFC North rival. The Bears have allowed 713 receiving yards and five TDs through the air to running backs, while no other team has given up even 600 yards through the air to the position, and only the Cardinals (six) have surrendered more receiving TDs. Gibbs' 54 targets this season are tied for fourth-most among running backs despite the rookie first-round pick having missed two games.

Bijan Robinson, ATL vs. TB ($22): Gibbs isn't the only running back selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft who has exactly 54 targets and is poised for a big Week 14 performance. At first glance, this looks like a tough matchup for Robinson, but the once-stout Tampa Bay run defense has started to crack in recent weeks. The Buccaneers didn't allow a rushing TD to a running back through Week 11, but they have since surrendered two rushing scores apiece to Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard, the latter of whom also became just the second RB to top 100 rushing yards against Tampa Bay in 2023. Robinson certainly has the skills to add to Tampa Bay's recent struggles, especially with the training wheels having come off in the past three games. After averaging just 14.6 touches in his first nine games, Robinson has averaged 21 touches in his last three, producing 308 scrimmage yards and three TDs over the latter span.

Honorable Mentions:

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CAR ($32); Joe Mixon, CIN vs. IND ($21); Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. BUF ($21)

Against the Grainers:

Kyren Williams, LAR at BAL ($33); Zack Moss, IND at CIN ($25); Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NO ($15)

WIDE RECEIVER

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN vs. IND ($28): Whether or not you believe in Browning enough to commit to him as your Week 14 QB, he certainly showed enough last week to make Chase a strong play against a Colts defense that's been burned for some of the best individual performances by WRs this season. Indianapolis has given up over 100 yards and a touchdown to a WR four times, plus a 140-yard game. Chase has hit those exact benchmarks this season, too, most recently racking up 149 yards and a TD on Monday while showing excellent chemistry with Browning. His ceiling is arguably higher than that of any WR in the Week 14 main slate, so there's more reward than risk with Chase at $28.

Davante Adams, LV vs. MIN ($23): Like Chase, Adams is a star WR that can be had at a relative discount. Adams has at least 12 targets in four of the six games in which Aidan O'Connell has played at QB for Vegas, and he should see plenty of volume coming out of a bye against a Vikings secondary that has allowed 171 catches to wide receivers -- fourth-most in the NFL. Even in a down year by his lofty standards, Adams ranks 12th among wideouts with 69 catches, and he's racked up at least 82 yards with a TD on three occasions this season after posting seven such games last season.

Courtland Sutton, DEN at LAC ($21): Sutton has found the end zone in nine of Denver's 12 games this season, including six of the past seven. He has a nice opportunity to add to his touchdown total against a leaky Chargers secondary that has allowed the fifth-most yards (2,170) and TDs (13) to WRs in 2023. Sutton has yet to be kept out of the end zone on the road, and sunny Los Angeles is an ideal spot to play if you're looking to maximize offense, especially with the cold becoming more of a factor elsewhere this time of year.

Honorable Mentions:

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at CHI ($31); Michael Pittman, IND at CIN ($22); DK Metcalf, SEA at SF ($21)

Against the Grainers: 

Justin Jefferson, MIN at LV ($35); Mike Evans, TB at ATL ($26); Cooper Kupp, LAR at BAL ($19)

TIGHT END

Isaiah Likely, BAL vs. LAR ($15): Likely put his name on the map with eight catches for 100 yards and a touchdown in a preseason game prior to his rookie season in 2022, but he's had to settle for a backup role behind Mark Andrews for most of his first two NFL seasons. With Andrews sidelined by an ankle injury, Likely finally has a chance to jump into the spotlight. He had an unremarkable four catches for 40 yards on six targets in the first game after Andrews got hurt, then Baltimore went on bye, giving the team an opportunity to better integrate Likely into the starting role. Against a Rams team that has allowed the sixth-most yards to TEs (726) and is one TD shy of the most allowed to the position with six, Likely's well positioned to finally deliver his breakout regular-season performance.

Honorable Mentions:

T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. LV ($24); Sam LaPorta, DET at CHI ($22); Gerald Everett, LAC vs. DEN ($16)

Against the Grainers: 

Travis Kelce, KC vs. BUF ($29); Evan Engram, JAC at CLE ($15); Brevin Jordan, HOU at NYJ ($10)

DEFENSE

Houston Texans at NYJ ($15): If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Deploying defenses against either the Jets or Patriots has worked out tremendously recently, and there's little reason to expect that to change. With New England playing outside the main slate in Week 14, a Jets team that has averaged 9.7 PPG over its last six games while churning through three QBs over that span will be this week's punching bag of choice in Zach Wilson's return to the starting job under center. The last six defenses to face the Jets averaged 17.7 fantasy points, and Houston's D/ST unit has scored at least 8.0 fantasy points in three of its last four games.

Honorable Mentions:

Cleveland Browns vs. JAC ($19); New Orleans Saints vs. CAR ($17); Atlanta Falcons vs. TB ($11)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Jets vs. HOU ($15); Detroit Lions at CHI ($12); Carolina Panthers at NO ($10)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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