This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 10 NFL Picks and Player Props
I'm not going to skips over it; last week was my worst week of the season. I lost all of my anytime touchdown suggestions and won only one of player props (Caleb Williams missed his over for passing yards by only five yards). However, I'll keep plugging away and hopefully can make up for it this week.
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Player Anytime Touchdowns
Saquon Barkley, PHI -185 (FanDuel)
Here's my chalky pick of the week and without knowing the odds I wanted to go with Christian McCaffrey (-230). I think Barkley has just as good of a chance to score, and he lists at better odds and does not come in off a long layoff. Dallas has played terribly on defense this season and they rank worse (31st) against opposing running backs than even the Jacksonville Jaguars (29th). Barkley put up 199 yards from scrimmage against the Jags and scored two touchdowns last week. Getting back to McCaffrey, it's interesting to note that teammate Jordan Mason sits at +300 on FanDuel and -125 on other sites, which seems like excellent value considering CMC probably won't get a full workload.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR +115 (FanDuel)
I really like Hubbard's matchup against the Giants and thought we would see the best odds in the -120 to -130 range. The Giants are league-average against opposing running backs and Hubbard should carry added motivation after the Panthers just handed him a bunch of guaranteed money this week. He has scored in six of his last seven games which makes these seems like great odds. Second round pick Jonathon Brooks likely makes his debut in this game, but even if active, it's highly unlikely he takes any significant amount of touches away from Hubbard. The added bonus is this is the early game in Germany Sunday, giving you some action right away.
Mason Tipton NO, +340 DraftKings, Juwan Johnson NO, +475 (DraftKings)
The good news for the Saints is that Derek Carr is healthy and put up decent numbers last week in his first game back from injury. The bad news is that his receiving corps remains a mess with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Cedrick Wilson all out. This limits the number of viable options to throw to with Tipton as the top wide receiver and Johnson the top receiving tight end (with all due respect to Taysom Hill). The Falcons are not a great defense, ranking 24th against opposing tight ends and 20th against opposing wide receivers. While Tipton comes in off a bad game, he should become more of a focal point this week with Olave out.
Player Props
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Jauan Jennings, SF Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (BetRivers)
Here's my favorite prop of the week. I suspect this number is suppressed because he missed the last two games, but let me give that some context. He likely could have played two weeks ago but the 49ers elected to keep him out knowing they had the bye on tap. Therefore, he probably could have returned last week if the Niners had a game. Brock Purdy has the highest yardage total of any quarterback this week and all of those receiving yards will not go to just Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. The return of Christian McCaffrey will get the attention of the Tampa defense, opening up passing lanes for Jennings down the field. Don't be surprised if this one hits before halftime.
Jake Ferguson, DAL Over 4.5 Receptions -130 DraftKings
I really like this prop for a few reasons. First, after Dak Prescott left the game last week Ferguson had two receptions in the fourth quarter with Cooper Rush under center. Backups commonly like to throw to their tight ends who typically run shorter/quick and safer routes than the wide receivers do. Ceedee Lamb comes into the game banged up, and I'll guess the Eagles will focus on stopping the run and make Rush beat them. This line prices at plus odds on other sites for 5.5 receptions; I'll take the longer odds needing one less reception.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF Over 44.5 Receiving Yards -113 (FanDuel)
The Bills already ruled Keon Coleman out for the tilt with the Colts, and it does not look good for Amari Cooper. Khalil Shakir will see an uptick in targets and Kincaid should as well. The difference between the two is that Kincaid's total is 20 yards less than Shakir's, and he matches up much better as Indianapolis ranks 29th against opposing tight ends. Josh Allen's passing yards line is anywhere from 233.5 to 243.5, and based on their odds, Shakir and Kincaid will only have around 110 of those. To me, it makes sense that at least one or maybe both go well over their mark, so I'll back the one with the smaller total.
