This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 15 NFL Picks and Player Props
Last week was another mixed bag of results but an overall net profit considering two of the anytime touchdown players hit. The bigger odds of those two, Grant Calcaterra, priced at +500 which turned into a nice payday for anyone who followed. However, I only hit one of the three player props with DK Metcalf and Kyle Pitts both underperforming. Onto Week 15.
Anytime Touchdowns
David Montgomery, DET -145 DraftKings
While I always hate picking against my Bills I'm trying to use my head here. This line is -182 on other sites and I was surprised to find it at only -145 to be honest. The Bills rank 28th against opposing running backs and play in their second consecutive road game fresh off giving up two rushing touchdowns to Kyren Williams last week. Montgomery has scored in 10 out of 13 games this season (77 percent) and should find the end zone in a game where the Lions are expected to score around 3-4 touchdowns.
De'Von Achane -115 FanDuel
While the Houston Texans have done a great job against opposing running backs, Achane's hot streak and usage should trump that as he finds a way to score again. His ability as a dual threat out of the backfield makes him one of the more dangerous players in the league. He's scored in six of his last seven games and has 3:5 ratio of running to receiving scores over that span of games. It's very encouraging that the Dolphins try to throw to him rather than run in the red zone, allowing Achane more space to use his speed and make defenders miss.
Stone Smartt +430 FanDuel
I'm tempted to just write that this guy has a cool name and for that reason alone, bet him this week. Of course that would likely land me in the unemployment line right before the holidays so I will not take that risk. Sticking with the facts, Smartt is in line for a bigger role in the Charger offense with Will Dissly out with a shoulder injury. Smartt finished with a 3-3-54 line last week and at 6-4, 224lbs almost fits the mold of a big wide receiver rather than a tight end. This is an excellent home matchup against a Tampa Bay team that ranks 28th against the position. This line is only +235 on other sites.
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Player Props
Devaughn Vele, DEN Over 34.5 Receiving Yards -113 FanDuel
Here is my favorite prop of the week. Bo Nix has gotten stronger as the season has progressed while fellow rookie Devaughn Vele has developed into the No.2 wide receiver for the Broncos. I actually like the fact that Vele comes in off a bad game (4-1-16) followed by a bye and gets to face a league-average defense in the Colts. Vele had gone over this mark in his previous three games before the dud against the Browns and I'd expect him to go over again Sunday.
Joe Burrow Under 279.5 Passing Yards -113 BetRivers
This line is as low as 268.5 on other sites and it's pretty odd to see more than a 10-yard difference in passing yard props. Burrow has looked awesome as of late with four consecutive 300-yard games including a 428-yard performance in Baltimore a few weeks back. However, this feels like a tough task heading into Tennessee where the pass defense has been among the best in the league. The Titans only allow a 6.57 YPA against and on paper they're the top team for fantasy purposes against opposing wide receivers. I'm guessing this line will go down between now and kickoff so I'd grab it sooner than later.
Tank Bigsby Over 51.5 Rushing Yards -112 BetRivers
Bigsby had 18 carries last week and should easily get another 12-plus carries this week. In his five games with double-digit carries this season he's gone over 51.5 rushing yards every time, and should do so even against a stout Jets' run defense. Bigsby averages a solid 5.0 yards per carry this season and the game script suggests a close game where the Jaguars should stick with running the ball.
