This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 8 NFL Picks and Player Props
Another mixed bag of results last week with me only hitting one anytime touchdown bet (and -200 at that), missing my other two but also hitting all three of my player props. Let's get back to work.
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Player Anytime Touchdowns
David Montgomery -115 DraftKings
Here's my chalky pick of the week and he's -190 on other sites suggesting good value here. Last week was the first week he didn't score a touchdown. While Montgomery was a bit banged up it doesn't sound like a serious injury. He has at least 12 touches in every game this season, and though the Titans rank 11th against opposing running backs, they will go on the road to face Montgomery in Detroit. Double-check the injury report before kickoff but he looks good to go against Tennessee.
Tyreek Hill +110 DraftKings, Jaylen Waddle +180 FanDuel
I've hit a couple of these this season taking both players. What I would do is wager a 2:1 ratio on Hill:Waddle (hope this makes sense). With Tua back in the fold totally opens up the offense with the passing attack. Miami is a 4.5 point favorite, at home and in a game with a 46.5 over/under. I may regret not going back to Raheem Mostert here (+155 FanDuel).
Keon Coleman +300, Khalil Shakir +360 FanDuel
I will not lie; I'm a bit worried about my Bills traveling across the country and facing the Seahawks in a late game. However, Shakir has two touchdowns in six games, and Coleman has two touchdowns in seven games. I'm pretty sure the math checks out that one should get a score in this game and the Seahawks rank only 12th against opposing wide receivers. The Bills come in as a three-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 46.5.
Player Props
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Lamar Jackson Under 210.5 BetRivers -114
Minus Deshaun Watson, I expect the Browns to heavily rely on the ground game (Nick Chubb!) and chew up the clock. Jackson has only gone under this number once this season but this is the best pass defense he will have faced, ranking eighth in the league against opposing quarterbacks. One was an injury game but this number has hit four out of the last five games. Weather could also play a factor which would only help this under.
Spencer Rattler Over 0.5 Interceptions -170 BetMGM
Ok, so the under here is +130 which suggests the house will make money here (they will). Therefore, wait as long as possible to make this wager as it could price at much better odds on another site. This is Rattler's first start on the road and like my beloved Bills, he's going to have to travel far across the country. Sidenote: I'd be interested if anyone has information about teams traveling to the East or West coast farther than 2,000 miles. The Chargers have six interceptions which would suggest they're keyed in on those turnovers.
Jordan Mason Over 78.5 Rushing Yards -113 FanDuel
This line smells a bit fishy given he hasn't gone over this mark in any of his last three games. However, the 49ers have a bye next week and likely Christian McCaffrey back the week after. That suggests no reason to hold Mason back.He had 16 touches last week and has gone over this number in four out of seven games this season. This looks like a great home matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 31st in the league against opposing running backs.
