NFL Picks: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 9

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Published on October 30, 2023

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 9

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

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NFL Week 9 Odds

BYES: 49ers, Lions, Broncos, Jaguars

Week 9 Schedule

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 O/U 36.5 OPENED STEELERS -4/38

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 O/U 51.0 OPENED CHIEFS -5.5/50.5

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons -4.5 O/U 37.5 OPENED VIKINGS -1/41.5

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens -5.5 O/U 43.0 OPENED RAVENS -2.5/46.5

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns -7.0 O/U 39.0 OPENED BROWNS -7.0/39

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers -3.0 O/U 40.0 OPENED PACKERS -1.5/41.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans -2.5 O/U 39.5 OPENED TEXANS -1.0/40.0

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots -3.5 O/U 40.0 OPENED PATRIOTS -3.5/39.0

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints -7.0 O/U 41.5 OPENED SAINTS -2.0/44.0

Indianapolis Colts -3.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 45.0 OPENED PANTHERS -2.5/42.5

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 O/U 38.5 OPENED RAIDERS -1.5/39.5

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -3.0 O/U 46.5 OPENED EAGLES -3.0/47.0

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 O/U 48.5 OPENED BENGALS -1.0/46.5

Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 at New York Jets O/U 41.5 OPENED JETS -2.0/43.0

Week 9 Injury News

Steelers - Kenny Pickett (ribs, game-time decision); Mitchell Trubisky expected to start

Titans - Ryan Tannehill (ankle, not expected to start Thursday); Will Levis expected to start

Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins could potentially be traded which would impact this line at least 2-3 points

Giants - Daniel Jones (cleared for contact), Tyrod Taylor (ribs, OUT); If Jones cannot go, Tommy DeVito will start for the worst offense in the NFL. Darren Waller (hamstring).

Bears - Justin Fields (finger, questionable)

Vikings - Kirk Cousins (achilles, OUT); significant impact to the line with a 2-3-point movement as Jaren Hall is the listed starter

Falcons - Desmond Ridder (concussion) expected to start this week, but could be on a very short leash as Taylor Heinicke looked good in the second half

Browns - Deshaun Watson (shoulder, unknown); PJ Walker expected to start again this week

Cardinals - Kyler Murray (knee, questionable); Joshua Dobbs expected to start

Rams - Matthew Stafford (thumb), Brett Rypien relieved Stafford in the third quarter and could start in their next game

Bucs - Baker Mayfield (knee contusion); still expected to play but could cause production issues

Week 9 observations

Highest point spread - Bears/Saints, Cardinals/Browns -7.0

Lowest point spread - Dolphins/Chiefs -2.5

Highest total - Dolphins/Chiefs 51.0

Lowest total - Titans/Steelers 36.5

Two games with totals over 46.0 - Dolphins/Chiefs, Bills/Bengals

Seven games with totals of 40 or less - Titans/Steelers, Vikings/Falcons, Cardinals/Browns, Rams/Packers, Bucs/Texans, Commanders/Patriots, Giants/Raiders

10 games with lines around -3.0 - Titans/Steelers, Dolphins/Chiefs, Rams/Packers, Bucs/Texans, Commanders/Patriots, Colts/Panthers, Giants/Raiders, Cowboys/Eagles, Bills/Bengals, Chargers/Jets

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NFL Week 9 Line Movement: Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

This line opened Vikings -1, but had moved to Falcons -1 until Sunday evening. The news of Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins being out for the season with a torn Achilles moved the line to Falcons -3.5 then -4.5. This still could move as high as -6 in my opinion with the Cousins impact on the line a full 4-to-5-point swing.

The total had opened low at 41.5 and has dropped steadily down to 37.5. I think we still see further downward movement on the total especially the Vikings team total.

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NFL Week 9 Line Movement: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

The Saints were installed as -2.0 home favorites in the summer and reopened last night at -5.5. The number quickly moved to -6.0 and -6.5 as Justin Fields appears to be out again this week. The Saints offense exploded for 38 points against the Colts which is helping bump up the Saints' side while the Bears were blown out on Sunday night against the Chargers 30-13.

NFL Week 9 Line Movement: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers

In one of the biggest line moves of the week, the Colts are now -3.0 road favorites at the Panthers after the Panthers originally opened -2.5 in the summer. The Panthers did beat the Texans at home, 15-13, and the Colts lost to the Saints, 38-27. The Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew appeared to injure his ankle in the game, and was relatively ineffective after this occurred in the game against the Saints. This is the second home game in a row for the Panthers, and I am surprised this line is not closer to 0 or -1 on the Colts side.

The total opened 42.5 and went as high as 45.5 before settling in at 44.0. Keep an eye on Minshew's status throughout the week, but the Panthers could be another live home dog again this week.

NFL Week 9 Line Movement: Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

In what looked to be a dreadful game a few weeks ago, now has some added meaning as the Jets and Chargers won their games in Week 8. This is still a risky spot for the Chargers as a road favorite against the very stout Jets defense.

The game originally opened Jets -2.0 before the Aaron Rodgers injury and moved to Chargers -1.5 and is now Chargers -3.0 after their win on Sunday night against the Bears. But the Jets pulled off a stunning victory against the Giants and their defense should continue to keep them in games. This is a tough spot for the Chargers, who have to travel from the West Coast to East Coast for Monday Night Football.

The total opened 43.0 and has moved down to 41.5. This total could continue to drop if weather becomes a factor on Monday night.

NFL Week 9 Line Movement: Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens

There are no key injuries on either side which is usually the case for when a line moves at least 3 points, but the Ravens have looked like the best team in football which has moved this from Ravens -2.5 to -5.5. The total has moved from 46.5 to 43.0 as the Seahawks defense has been better than advertised.

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