NFL Picks Week 12: Chalkboard Pick'em Selections and Strategy

Ryan Belongia is back with his Week 12 Chalkboard Pick 'em picks. With Marvin Harrison Jr. out, Arizona's Michael Wilson is likely to be a top target again.
NFL Picks Week 12: Chalkboard Pick'em Selections and Strategy
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Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard

RotoWire has the tools and data to help you make picks of your own.

To get started playing Chalkboard, follow the link and use promo code WIRE for a bonus. 

Higher

RB Kenneth Walker at TEN - higher than 59.5 rush yards; 0.5 TDs

Walker is coming off 19 touches for 111 yards in last week's loss to the Rams. After the game, head coach Mike Macdonald said "I think Ken's showing that he deserves some more opportunities." Sunday's matchup against Tennessee should be the perfect spot. The Seahawks are double-digit favorites against a defense that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs. 

RB David Montgomery vs. NYG - higher than 49.5 rush yards; 0.5 TDs

More coach-speak here from a guy who's always honest as Dan Campbell talked about needing the get Montgomery more carries. Sunday's matchup should be a prime opportunity. The Lions are double-digit favorites with a big implied total, and the Giants have one of the league's worst run defenses. 

WR Michael Wilson vs. JAX - higher than 4.5 receptions; 56.5 yards

Wilson exploded last week for a whopping 15 catches on 18 targets, as the Cardinals were without No. 1 WR Marvin Harrison, who's been ruled out again. Jacoby Brissett is clearly an upgrade from Kyler Murray and I'm expecting Wilson, who's always had big talent, to benefit again at home against Jacksonville. 

TE Travis Kelce vs. IND - higher than 4.5 receptions

Kelce is coming off nine catches on 13 targets against the Broncos. It's that time of the year when we're used to him turning it on. Sunday's matchup against Indianapolis looks like a great spot, as the Colts defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. 

RB Chase Brown vs. NE - higher than 4.5 receptions

TE Mike Gesicki vs. NE - higher on receptions

Brown had six catches last week, and eight the week before. Third-down back Samaje Perine is still out, and so is Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals also get Joe Burrow back, which will certainly help. It looks like Gesicki will be back as well, and Cincinnati loves to use him in the slot whenever one of Chase or Higgins is out. Chalkboard hasn't released numbers for him yet but he had games with double-digit targets in these spots last year. 

QB Cam Ward vs. SEA - higher than 186.5 pass yards; higher than 0.5 TDs

Ward has looked better recently with a TD pass in four of his last five. I like this spot because the Titans are two-touchdown underdogs at home, meaning the likely game script sees them playing from behind early and passing for most of the game. Ward has been putting up 250+ yards in these spots, and he should have opportunities to throw a TD in garbage time if he hasn't already.

Lower

RB Saquon Barkley at DAL - lower than 76.5 rush yards; 97.5 rush+rec yards

Barkley has topped 60 rushing yards in only three of 10 games this season while averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. The Cowboys defense is coming off its best performance of the season, led by newly-acquired star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. They held Barkley to 60 yards on 18 carries in Week 1, and the unit has improved considerably. 

QB Kirk Cousins at NO - lower than 206.5 pass yards

Cousins looked inept in his only start of the season back in Week 8 against the Dolphins, throwing for 173 yards and no TDs as the Falcons were blown out. He wasn't any better last week, completing 6-of-14 passes for 48 yards in relief of Michael Penix in the loss to Carolina. Atlanta will also be missing top WR Drake London. Their matchup against New Orleans is relatively soft, I'd expect them to lean on Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and the running game as much as possible.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan is the top-ranked DFS soccer player on RG, reigning King of the Pitch Champion at DraftKings and 2021 finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year.
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