This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
And down the stretch, they come. The NFL season is in the final four weeks and there is a mountain of uncertainties for nearly every team in the 32-team league except perhaps the San Francisco 49ers (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, 6-6-1 Over-Under). The Philadelphia Eagles (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS, 7-6 Over-Under) have won five games in which they were outgained in the box score and it did catch up to them, in recent weeks getting throttled by the 49ers in Week 13 and then on the road against their bitter NFC East rival the Dallas Cowboys. For most of the season, the Eagles held to the top record in the NFC and the first-round Playoff BYE, but now find themselves in the fifth spot behind the four divisional leaders.
The Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts lost just two games in the regular season for his career and now has lost four and the last two in consecutive weeks. These losses are certainly not on him alone as the defense is playing some of the worst football for a winning-record team that I have studied in at least a decade. No Super Bowl Champion in the past 30 years has had back-to-back games in which they lost by a total of 40 or more points. However, there have been 13 games in which a winning record team had lost each of their two previous games by 20 or more points and they went 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS for 62% winning bets since 1990. If the game was on the road, these desperate teams would bounce back with a 4-0 SU and ATS record.
The Eagles have a road trip to take on the Seattle Seahawks (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 Over-Under) Monday Night and are priced as 4-point favorites with a posted total of 47.5 points. The market is betting more Over than Under bets and I see this line getting to 49.5 points by the kickoff. The weather forecast calls for rain during the day on Monday, but as of now is not going to impact offensive production for either team. The line prices the Eagles as 4-point favorites with 77% of the handle and 75% of the tickets, but the market has not moved. That is a red flag to bet the Eagles currently with too many people thinking the Eagles will bounce back and win this game easily.
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Three Games on Saturday Featuring Five 7-6 Record teams
When the college Football season concludes the NFL fills that void by adding games to be played on Saturdays. This week is an excellent slate of matchups in which five of the six teams on the card have their playoff seasons on the line. Five of these six teams have 7-6 SU records and only the Detroit Lions have a different record at 9-4. With just four weeks left to the season any 7-6 team can ill afford a loss, especially to a team with the same record.
In the first game Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings (7-6 SU7-4-2 ATS, 3-10 Over-Under) take to the road as 3-point underdogs to play the Cincinnati Bengals (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 7-6 Over-Under) set to start at 1:00 EST at Paycor Field. All three games played on Saturday will be televised by the NFL network. The Vikings hold the 6th playoff spot as the second-best Wild Card team. In the AFC standings, there are six teams with 7-6 records, and the teams that win within this group take a major step forward to a potential playoff berth.
The Bengals need this game more than any of the other 7-6 teams being in the 10th spot of the AFC standings because they lose multiple tiebreakers to the other teams. A loss severely damages playoff hopes with only three remaining games to the season.
In the second game Saturday another pair of 7-6 teams face off at Lucas Oil Stadium when the Indianapolis Colts (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 Over-Under) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS, 3-10 Over-Under) set to start at 4:30 PM. The Colts are the second-best 7-6 team and hold the 7th spot in the standings and the Steelers hold on to the tiebreakers sitting 6th in the standings.
The third game on Saturday features the Detroit Lions hosting the Denver Broncos at Ford Field and is set to start at 8:15 EST. The Lions were the team I thought could track down the Eagles and overtake them for the number one seed in the NFC, but they have lost two of their last three and coming off a horrid loss to their NFC North Chicago Bears by a final score of 28-13 last week. To the credit of head coach Sean Payton and the improved offensive play led by Russell Wilson, the Broncos have made their 0-3 start to the season (lost by 50 points allowing 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3) a memory of the past. With a win, they put themselves front and center in the AFC playoff battle. A loss by the Lions will not eliminate their playoff aspirations but will add pressure that is equivalent to the weight of an aircraft carrier on them knowing they still have two games yet to be played against the Minnesota Vikings.
A Few Best Bet Opportunities to Take to the Window
There are many betting opportunities that I like on the Week 15 card and the one that sticks out as the best one is not a sexy matchup. The Washington Commanders are my best bet as they will travel to the West Coast to take on the Rams in a game set to start at 4:05 PM EST at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood California.
The following is a highly profitable NFL betting algorithm and ranks as one of the best among the 5,000 ones in my repository. The requirements are:
· Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points
· The road team is allowing 28 or more points per game
That simple set of powerful parameters has produced a 45-78-1 SU record for 37% wins, but has earned an 82-39-3 ATS record good for 68% winning tickets since 2015. Plus, a subset that if the matchup is between conference foes they soar to 61-26-2 ATS record and 70% winning bets since 2015. I am betting the Commanders plus the points and also adding a sprinkle on the money line.
