Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Broncos vs. Chiefs

Sunday night gives us a classic AFC West showdown between the 10-1 Chiefs, the highest-scoring team in the AFC, and the 4-7 Broncos, who lost 43-16 in Kansas City back in Week 7. With the Chiefs gigantic 13.0-point home favorites in a game with a 50.0-point total, we're surely going to see plenty of 5:1 and 4:2 stacks, likely with a few Chiefs punts just to make sure the elite options are included.

QUARTERBACKS

The quarterback matchup in this one is pretty one-sided, but at least the Broncos will have a real quarterback after being forced to use practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton last week because of required COVID isolations. But while Drew Lock ($9,200 DK, $14,000 FD) will be under center, it seems unlikely he'll be a popular flex play even with the expectation that he'll have to throw a bunch to keep the Broncos in the game. Lock completed 24-of-40 passes for 254 yards and two interceptions in the first meeting, though he salvaged his fantasy day with a rushing touchdown. Lock has thrown at least 40 passes four times this season, but only once did he pass for more than 260 yards in those games. 

Recent history of Chiefs opponents theoretically works in Lock's favor, as they allowed at least 275 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games, but even then it seems unlikely he'll be overly popular because it likely prices you out of another Chiefs player.

The Broncos defense has actually been solid recently, allowing 200 or fewer passing yards in three straight games, though it's tough to get overly excited when those came against Derek Carr, Tua Tagovailoa and Taysom Hill, but maybe that gives them a little confidence against Patrick Mahomes ($13,200 DK, $16,500 FD), the most expensive player on both sites. Despite the Chiefs scoring 43 points in their previous matchup, Mahomes only completed 15-of-23 passes for 200 yards and one touchdown, with the TD coming in the fourth quarter to put them up 37-9. An interception return for a touchdown and a punt return for a touchdown basically negated the need for Mahomes to throw, making it the only time this season he hasn't accounted for multiple touchdowns.

Those poor stats should do nothing to limit his popularity, and neither will his price, as plenty of people will worry he spreads the ball around too much and they might as well just use him as captain/MVP to ensure they get all the passing work and figure out the rest from there. It's not a terrible strategy, but it may not be the most optimal.

PASS CATCHERS

Consideration for any of the Chiefs pass catchers has to begin with Tyreek Hill ($12,200 DK, $14,500 FD), the second-most expensive player on both sites. Hill has been on an incredible run, putting up at least 98 yards and a touchdown in four straight games, including last week's massive 13-catch, 269-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers. After scoring seven touchdowns in 12 games last season, Hill is already up to 13 in 11 this season, failing to get in the end zone only twice. He's obviously very expensive, but it's really hard to think of him having a bad game even though he only caught six of 10 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in Week 7. But maybe more importantly there, Hill got 10 of 23 available targets in that game, and he's had 18, 14 and 15 passes thrown to him in the last three games, respectively.

The easy pivot from Hill, if you can consider it easy, is tight end Travis Kelce ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD), the third-most expensive player on DraftKings and fourth-most on FanDuel. Kelce's recent production would be given a lot more credit if not for Hill's absurd numbers, but Kelce comes in with at least eight catches and 82 receiving yards in four straight games, including three games with at least 109. He's been targeted at least eight times in four straight games, and while he only caught three of three for 31 yards against Denver in the last meeting, we have to remember Mahomes only threw 23 passes.

Using Mahomes as captain on DraftKings and then Hill and Kelce in the flex spots leaves an average of $2,400 per remaining spot, which actually isn't low enough for a lot of people to try to jam them all in. Plus, using one of Hill or Kelce in the multiplier spot only opens up more salary for the punts who are actually better than just long-shot prayers.

Before we get to them, the Chiefs still have solid pass catchers in Sammy Watkins ($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD), Mecole Hardman ($4,400 DK, $9,000 FD) and Demarcus Robinson ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD), though they don't get nearly the volume of Hill or Kelce. Watkins is probably the safest from a target perspective, but his 7.0 aDOT is a pretty good indication that he's not a big-play target. Hardman's 10.5 is the second-highest on the team among active players (Hill is first at 13.4), while Robinson's 8.9 is still higher than Kelce (7.9) and Watkins. Given the figures, Watkins seems like the safer play for optimal lineups, especially considering he gets many more targets, but Hardman and Robinson could make big fantasy splashes on only a few opportunities.

There aren't likely to be many people stacking the Broncos' pass catchers unless they're playing contrarian, but we do have the benefit of being able to more easily fit them in than the Chiefs' stars. Rookie Jerry Jeudy ($5,400 DK, $11,500 FD) leads the team in targets (78), receiving yards (589) and air yards (1,111), while Tim Patrick ($4,600 DK, $9,500 FD) tops them in receiving touchdowns (three) and aDOT (14.60) and sitting just behind Jeudy in receptions (37 to 36) and receiving yards (589 to 563) despite 20 fewer targets. Jeudy, who is questionable because of an ankle injury but expected to play, is likely to be more popular if only because he's not that much more expensive, at least on DraftKings, and he's gotten at least eight targets in four of his last five games, with the one down game coming during last week's quarterback debacle when they only threw nine passes (completing one). KJ Hamler ($1,800 DK, $7,500 FD) rounds out the consistent wide receiver group, and he definitely makes for an interesting pay-down option given he had 26 targets in Weeks 9 through 11, finishing with 14 catches for 160 yards.

Those looking deeper can consider DaeSean Hamilton ($1,600 DK, $7,000 FD), but for the price it doesn't see viable to prioritize him over Hamler because of significantly less volume (two touchdowns in the last five games keeps his salary close, but he's really unlikely to be helpful without a score). Tyrie Cleveland ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is probably the last guy you'll consider, and he's probably not worth including in the player pool for those making a limited number of lineups.

Wide receiver isn't the only position to consider, of course, which brings tight end Noah Fant ($5,000 DK, $9,000 FD) into the discussion. Fant actually leads the team with 40 receptions this season, doing so on 60 targets, and his 435 receiving yards trail only Jeudy and Patrick. His 6.9 aDOT is pretty standard for a tight end, and given that he hasn't broken 50 receiving yards nor scored a touchdown since Week 2, it's tough to get overly excited. If you want a positive about Fant, he caught 100 percent of the Broncos' one completed pass last week. Backup Nick Vannett ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) is an option because he's in uniform, but going down that low doesn't seem to be overly beneficial for a guy highly unlikely to produce yards or a touchdown.

Given how popular the Chiefs' receivers will be, none of the Broncos' wide receivers or tight ends figure to be on many rosters, and particularly not as captain/MVP. It's a big contrarian move to prioritize them, especially in the multiplier positions. If you're a "first or last" type of player, Jeudy seems like the most likely path for captain among the Broncos' pass catchers, so maybe Patrick is actually the best way to go there.

RUNNING BACKS

Despite getting blown out in the prior meeting, the Broncos had success running the ball against the Chiefs back in Week 7, with Melvin Gordon ($7,800 DK, $12,500 FD) rushing 17 times for 68 yards and a touchdown while Phillip Lindsay ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) needed only nine carries to reach 79 yards. Gordon continues to get more of the backfield touches, but Lindsay gets enough opportunities to keep Gordon from being an easy play. The Broncos are one of four teams to rack up at least 140 running back rushing yards against the Chiefs this season, but Kansas City has held each of their last four (Jets, Panthers, Raiders, Buccaneers) under 80. You could point to the Panthers getting 116 receiving yards against them in Week 9, but that included 82 for Christian McCaffrey; for the record, Gordon and Lindsay are not McCaffrey.

Lindsay is questionable to play because of a knee injury, though he is expected to play. If he's limited in any way, we should expect more work for Gordon and Royce Freeman ($800 DK, $6,000 FD), the latter of whom probably isn't going to get enough volume as long as Gordon and Lindsay are active.

The Chiefs' backfield situation is pretty similar, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,400 DK, $11,500 FD) continuing to start and get the most looks, but Le'Veon Bell ($2,400 DK, $9,000 FD) keeps sniping enough touches to keep the rookie from being an easy play in a game where his team is nearly a two-touchdown favorite. Here's Jerry Donabedian's breakdown from this week's Hidden Stat Line:

	Snap  Share	Carries	Targets	Target  Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat  Line
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	60%	11	1	2.2%	25	.49	11-37-0 — 1-2-0
Le'Veon Bell	30%	5	2	4.4%	16	.31	5-22-0 — 2-10-0

• Darrel Williams played eight snaps (10%), with no carries or targets. He handled six of the nine snaps on 3rd-and-medium/long, otherwise barely seeing the field.
• Edwards-Helaire was the starter and actually got his largest snap share since Bell entered the mix. Still, the rookie has been in the 40-to-59 percent range in each of five games sharing the backfield with Bell.
• CEH played each of the four snaps inside the 10-yard line, but he didn't have any carries of targets from in close.
• Over the past five games, Edwards-Helaire is averaging 8.8 carries, 1.8 receptions, 48.8 total yards and 0.8 TDs. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 40.8 passes per game in the same stretch, despite each of the five being wins.

So it's not even really Bell taking away from Edwards-Helaire but Mahomes, who is throwing more passes than he was earlier this season. If anything, it seems Darrel Williams ($1,000 DK, $6,500 FD) is low enough that we probably don't have to worry about him too much unless Edwards-Helaire sits out because of a stomach bug that kept him from practicing the past two days. If he sits, Bell will surely be popular because of the expectation of increased touches, and his lower price makes it easier to handle if he doesn't see a huge uptick in work.

The heavy emphasis on the passing game should also make the running backs fairly overlooked in terms of captain/MVP, which seems a bit silly when they are favored by so much. However, we've seen plenty of times that the Chiefs are perfectly content to throw the ball when they're up, so it's not an easy maneuver by any means.

KICKERS

Paying up for the Chiefs' top skill position players will surely make fantasy players consider both Harrison Butker ($4,000 DK, $8,000 FD) and Brandon McManus ($3,600 DK, $8,000), especially because they are fairly cheap with decent floors. The Broncos' offense is far from elite, but they do have players who can move the ball down the field, potentially getting McManus into field-goal range. It also doesn't hurt that he's cheap and provides a floor for those who only want to roster one Broncos player; in the event of a blowout, McManus could surely finish as their highest-scoring player.

Given that possibility, McManus could even be a popular GPP play (relatively speaking), though he still makes more sense in cash games because they prioritize floor. Given the players in their price ranges, such as Hardman, Lindsay, Bell and Hamler on DraftKings, plus Watkins and Robinson on FanDuel, you can see why many people would just prefer to target the upside of those guys over Butker.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

A significantly one-sided game has the defenses priced far apart, with the Chiefs ($6,400 DK) the eighth-most expensive "starter" while the Broncos ($2,600 DK) are 17th, behind both kickers. Given the variance of the position, paying up for the Chiefs seems a bit nuts, especially since the Broncos will have an actual quarterback playing this week. The benefit of the Broncos defense is that they take up the one Broncos spot you have to have in your lineup, and while Mahomes doesn't turn the ball over much, anything can happen (the Chiefs had two return touchdowns in the first meeting), so those who like to embrace variance will surely have the Broncos in their player pools.