This article is part of our Survivor series.
A third of pickers, according to Officefootballpools.com, had the Titans last week, but if you're reading this column you knew to fade them against the Texans. Everything else hit, so hopefully we had some pool winners last week.
More likely, things went similar to my pool where all three of the remaining survivors (of an original 410) advanced — on the 49ers, Bills and Chargers.
On to Week 17.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Bears | 25.5% | 249 | 71.3% | 7.31 |
| CHARGERS | Rams | 20.0% | 253.5 | 71.7% | 5.66 |
| Jaguars | TEXANS | 13.8% | 189 | 65.4% | 4.78 |
| GIANTS | Colts | 13.7% | 201 | 66.8% | 4.55 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 6.8% | 691.5 | 87.4% | 0.86 |
| 49ers | RAIDERS | 5.9% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.82 |
| EAGLES | Saints | 5.3% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 1.43 |
| Cowboys | TITANS | 2.0% | 430 | 81.1% | 0.38 |
| FALCONS | Cardinals | 1.6% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.59 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 1.2% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.48 |
| COMMANDERS | Browns | 0.9% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.40 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 0.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.19 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 0.4% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.17 |
| RAVENS | Steelers | 0.4% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.16 |
| Jets | SEAHAWKS | 0.3% | 121 | 54.8% | 0.14 |
At this point, the above numbers aren't all that significant. It's all about gameplanning the next two weeks. Projecting next week is tricky, obviously.
Top teams not likely to rest players Week 18 and what they're
A third of pickers, according to Officefootballpools.com, had the Titans last week, but if you're reading this column you knew to fade them against the Texans. Everything else hit, so hopefully we had some pool winners last week.
More likely, things went similar to my pool where all three of the remaining survivors (of an original 410) advanced — on the 49ers, Bills and Chargers.
On to Week 17.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Bears | 25.5% | 249 | 71.3% | 7.31 |
| CHARGERS | Rams | 20.0% | 253.5 | 71.7% | 5.66 |
| Jaguars | TEXANS | 13.8% | 189 | 65.4% | 4.78 |
| GIANTS | Colts | 13.7% | 201 | 66.8% | 4.55 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 6.8% | 691.5 | 87.4% | 0.86 |
| 49ers | RAIDERS | 5.9% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.82 |
| EAGLES | Saints | 5.3% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 1.43 |
| Cowboys | TITANS | 2.0% | 430 | 81.1% | 0.38 |
| FALCONS | Cardinals | 1.6% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.59 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 1.2% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.48 |
| COMMANDERS | Browns | 0.9% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.40 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 0.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.19 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 0.4% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.17 |
| RAVENS | Steelers | 0.4% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.16 |
| Jets | SEAHAWKS | 0.3% | 121 | 54.8% | 0.14 |
At this point, the above numbers aren't all that significant. It's all about gameplanning the next two weeks. Projecting next week is tricky, obviously.
Top teams not likely to rest players Week 18 and what they're playing for:
Bills (vs. Patriots) - AFC No. 1 seed
Chiefs (at Raiders) - AFC No. 1 seed, if they win this week
Bengals (vs. Ravens) - AFC No. 1 seed, if they win this week
Chargers (at Broncos) - AFC No. 5 seed (and the benefit of facing the AFC South champ in first round)
Jaguars (vs. Titans) - AFC South
Titans (at Jaguars) - AFC South
Eagles (vs. Giants) - NFC No. 1 seed, if they lose this week
Vikings (at Bears) - NFC No. 1 or 2 seed
49ers (vs. Cardinals) - NFC No. 1 or 2 seed
Cowboys (at Commanders) - NFC East, if Eagles lose this week
Buccaneers (at Falcons) - NFC South
Panthers (at Saints) - NFC South
Giants (at Eagles) - playoffs (against an Eagles team that could rest starters)
Seahawks (vs. Rams) - playoffs
Packers (at Lions) - playoffs
Lions (at Packers) - playoffs
Now, let's use the three survivors in my pool as an example.
Of the picks listed below, Team A has the Lions, Chargers and Falcons available. Team B has the Chiefs, Lions, Giants and Falcons. Team C has the Lions, 49ers and Falcons.
If I'm Team A, I'd take the Lions this week, with the idea of taking the Chargers next week.
Team B, the Chiefs are the best option, but I'd save them for next week and take the Lions instead.
Team C, the Lions this week. The only reason I'd save the 49ers is in the unlikely event they are playing for the No. 1 seed in Week 18. If so, they won't rest their players.
In any event, gameplan the scenarios to survive this week and find a top team with something to play for next week.
Picks below are in order of most likely to win, not necessarily preference — i.e., the Chiefs are most likely to win, but I'd probably save them for next week. If none of the teams below are available, we can discuss options in the comments.
My Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
If the Chiefs are still an option, it's because you gameplanned it out a few weeks back and saved K.C. for this spot. Unfortunately, the Broncos fired coach Nathaniel Hackett this week (they couldn't have waited a couple more weeks?!?), which creates the specter of a dead-cat bounce for Denver. But the Chiefs are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and Denver's only positive, its defense, looks like it finally gave up on the season after allowing 51 points last week to the Rams, of all teams. The jolt from losing their coach won't be enough to revive the morbid Broncos this week. However ... you might want to save the Chiefs for next week. They'll be one of the few good teams not likely to rest their starters with the No. 1 seed still possible.
Dallas Cowboys
The NFC East is still possible for the Cowboys. The Titans' shot at the AFC South title comes down to next week against the Jaguars. This week means nothing to them. Even if it did, new starting QB Malik Willis has not been good, and the Titans have lost five in a row, including last week to the Texans. Dallas should take care of business. The Cowboys are at Washington next week, which could be a meaningless game for them but not the Commanders. This is the spot to use the Cowboys if they're still available.
San Francisco 49ers
The Raiders seemingly have little hope against a 49ers defense that has given up more than 20 points twice all year and not once since Week 7. However, the 49ers play the Cardinals next week at Santa Clara, which might be a better spot to use them. If the No. 1 seed is on the line, they won't rest players. If not, then they probably will rest players because there's not much difference in terms of first-round playoff opponent from the No. 2 and 3 seeds.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are better at home, and the Bears are awful everywhere. Detroit is still in the hunt for the playoffs and should bounce back after losing at Carolina last week. Plus, the Bears just lost their best cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, for the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Hey, it's the battle for L.A. The Chargers are healthy offensively after struggling with injuries much of the year, and defensively they've allowed 34 points total the last three weeks. The Chargers clinched the playoffs last week but still can improve their seeding. The formerly woeful Rams somehow scored 51 points last week. Even if they have turned a corner with Baker Mayfield, the Rams aren't good enough to keep up with a Chargers team that still has much for which to play. The Chargers play the Broncos in Week 18, which is a good spot too.
New York Giants
The Giants are fighting for the playoffs. The Colts are just trying to finish the season in one piece. Even though the Giants have won just two of their last eight games, it's still perhaps surprising they are only favored by five at home. A quarterback situation in disarray and no Jonathan Taylor leave the Colts with little offensively.
Atlanta Falcons
If the above teams are gone, the Falcons are actually a decent option this week. Atlanta is eliminated from the playoffs, but is at home against a Cardinals team that is even worse. The Cardinals' average margin of defeat in their five-game losing streak is 11 points. The Falcons have lost four in a row with an average margin of defeat of five points. Tyler Allgeier can run on the Cardinals, and the Falcons are still trying to get the best out of Desmond Ridder, which gives them reason not to lay down. The Falcons have the best odds of the also-ran teams in the chart above.
Notable Omissions:
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts might be out again and the offense lost tackle Lane Johnson, who hasn't allowed so much as a QB pressure in forever, to injury. Slim as it is, the Saints still have a shot at the playoffs. If you didn't use the Eagles earlier in the season, you're out of luck now.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Like the Titans, this week means little for the Jaguars. Might they pull Trevor Lawrence early? The Texans have played better in recent weeks, winning last week (against the Titans) to snap a nine-game losing streak. The Jaguars should still win, but the game is at Houston and if it gets goofy late, the Jaguars might just pack it in. Too much risk for Survivor.
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