Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 3 Waivers Preview

The first two weeks of the season have been terrible for passing volume and receiving production around the NFL, and it looks like things will only get worse in the short term for fantasy after the past few days were loaded with bad injury news impacting standout pass catchers. 

Chiefs WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) has gone from nearing a return to likely out for the season. Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have gone from catching Tua Tagovailoa's passes to trying to corral Skylar Thompson's. Eagles WR A.J. Brown and Jaguars TE Evan Engram missed Week 2 after suffering hamstring injuries during practice and pregame warmups, respectively. Then came Sunday, and with it, injuries to superstar wideouts Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel.

The Vikings, Rams and 49ers were already missing key pieces in their respective passing games before Week 2, and while Jefferson may have avoided a significant injury, the same can't be said for Kupp or Samuel. Injury absences will of course open up chances for other players, but in many cases the opportunities will be spread around, and some teams will be more inclined to run the ball more often even though league-wide passing volume is already down by 10 percent compared to last year.

Only 18 wide receivers scored double-digit fantasy points in both of the season's first two weeks, including four players that barely scraped over the both times (DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson, Jerry Jeudy and Khalil Shakir) and two from the group injured Sunday (Jefferson, Samuel). The silver lining is that we've seen some good stuff from rookies and second-year players, with Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston all finishing Top 12 in Week 2 WR scoring and Brian Thomas and Jameson Williams turning in solid scores after strong Week 1 outings.

Johnston is maybe the biggest surprise after his ugly rookie season, and he's one of 18 players* that leads his team in routes run, targets and air yards through two games (the others being Tyreek Hill, Romeo Doubs, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, Gabe Davis, DK Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, Calvin Ridley and TE Hunter Henry).

Decreased passing volume and efficiency aren't the only trends from 2022-23 that seem to be carrying over to 2024. There's also been a high level of usage concentration toward No. 1 targets, although it may not seem like it if we don't look deeper into the numbers (because the lack of passing production overall means a bunch of those guys haven't put up big fantasy scores yet).

* near-misses include Garrett Wilson (slightly behind Allen Lazard for air yards), Deebo Samuel (slightly behind Brandon Aiyuk in routes), Rashee Rice (a few routes behind Travis Kelce), 

Weekly WR/TE Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WR Cooper Kupp (ankle / likely IR)
• WR Deebo Samuel (calf / out a few weeks)
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (leg / day-to-day)
• WR Justin Jefferson (quad contusion / day-to-day)
• WR Calvin Austin (undisclosed)

Missed Week 2

• WR Jordan Addison (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Keenan Allen (heel / day-to-day)
• WR Devaughn Vele (ribs / day-to-day)
• WR Tee Higgins (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR A.J. Brown (hamstring / likely out Week 3)
• WR Josh Downs (ankle)
• WR Roman Wilson (ankle)
• WR Marquise Brown (IR - shoulder / likely out for season)
• WR Puka Nacua (IR - knee / likely out until November)
• WR Odell Beckham (PUP - unspecified / eligible Week 5)
• WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP - knee / eligible Week 5)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest / eligible Week 5)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible Week 5)

• TE Jake Ferguson (knee / day-to-day)
• TE David Njoku (ankle / week-to-week)
• TE Evan Engram (hamstring / week-to-week)
• TE Davis Allen (back / week-to-week)
• TE Pharaoh Brown (foot)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL)
• TEs Ian Thomas (IR - calf) & Tommy Tremble (hamstring)

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the numbers shown next to each player's teams are from the first two games combined. I'll also make note of some cases like Kyle Pitts in which there's an additional role concern because the player's snap/route share decline from Week 1 to Week 2.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards)
• TS = Target Share

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Nico Collins - 88% routes / 28% TS / 48% AYS / 14-252-1 SZN

Malik Nabers - 96% routes / 39% TS / 58% AYS / 15-193-1 SZN

Rashee Rice - 81% routes/ 31% TS / 36% AYS / 12-178-1 SZN

Marvin Harrison - 93% routes / 21% TS / 46% AYS / 4-130-2 Week 2 (8 tgts)

Chris Godwin - 33% TS / 36% AYS / 15-200-2 SZN

DeVonta Smith - 31% TS / 43% AYS / 14-160-1 SZN

Jameson Williams - 89% routes / 25% TS / 47% AYS / 10-200-1 SZN

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 88% routes / 26% TS / 34% AYS / 12-117-0 Week 2

Rashid Shaheed - 79% routes / 23% TS / 43% AYS / 7-169-2 SZN

Romeo Doubs - 90% routes / 22% TS / 32% AYS

Quentin Johnston - 85% routes / 25% TS / 39% AYS

Darnell Mooney - 98% routes / 19% TS / 40% AYS

Jordan Whittington - 100% routes post-halftime Week 2 / Kupp + Nacua injuries

Jalen Tolbert - 80% routes / 15% TS / 23% AYS / 6-82-0 Week 2 (9 tgts)

Jalen Nailor - 93% routes Week 2 / 3-54-1 Week 2 (4 tgts) / 23% AYS

Josh Reynolds - 79% routes / 17% TS / 26% AYS

Apart from Nabers and his outrageous dominance of the Giants passing game, Williams is probably the strongest 'signal' through two weeks (as opposed to noise), with various factors suggesting it's not a fluke. His impressive shares come from a larger volume of team attempts than many of the other WRs -- especially guys like Doubs and Johnston -- and he backed up his Week 1 breakout with 5-79-0 on 11 targets in Week 2 despite being on the injury report with an ankle injury. 

There's a real chance Williams is supplanting Sam LaPorta as Detroit's No. 2 target or at least drawing even with the talented tight end. I don't think Williams will maintain a 25% target share if LaPorta, ARSB and Jahmyr Gibbs stay relatively healthy, but 20% share with a lot of the downfield work in a top offense might be enough to make him a fantasy WR2 in this environment. There's also a ceiling scenario beyond that.

Smith-Njigba's huge Week 2 on 16 targets gives us another strong breakout signal, although I'm a bit more hesitant there because Tyler Lockett had far better volume and production than JSN in Week 1. It's probably better to focus on the cumulative stuff than thinking of the games individually, and from that perspective it's hard not to be excited for Smith-Njigba with 26% TS and 34% AYS through two weeks.

Tight Ends 📈

Brock Bowers - 66% routes / 25% TS / 26% AYS

George Kittle - 20% TS / 7-76-1 Week 2 (8 tgts) / Deebo + CMC injuries

Hunter Henry - 87% routes / 32% TS / 35% AYS / 8-109-0 Week 2 (12 tgts)

Bowers may already be the best per-route producer at this position, and the Raiders have been throwing a lot because they're simply unable to run the ball. There's also a good chance the rookie's phenomenal play eventually leads to enhanced snap/route shares, although it'll also mean more attention from defenses (they also have to deal with WR Davante Adams, but it's somewhat easier to focus on two pass catchers if the running game remains non-threatening).

Henry had the other standout Week 2 receiving line among tight ends, accounting for around half of New England's targets and air yards (which is about triple his career norms for usage). He's not suddenly becoming a superstar at age 29, but he's a solid player with a near-every-down role in an offense that has weak target competition and a league that has weak TE production competition. That's enough that we need to take Henry seriously as a back-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside.

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Michael Pittman - 30% TS but 3.5 YPT (7-of-15 for 52 yards)

Adonai Mitchell - 63% routes Week 2 / Josh Downs returning soon

Christian Watson - 69% routes / 11% TS / 17% AYS

Jakobi Meyers - 12% TS / 20% AYS

Joshua Palmer - 14% TS / 16% AYS

Christian Kirk - 15% TS / 2-29-0 (seven tgts)

DeAndre Hopkins - 6% TS / 6% AYS / 50% routes Week 2

Tight Ends 📉

Dalton Kincaid - 15% TS / 0% AYS

Sam LaPorta - 10% TS / 9% AYS

Kyle Pitts - 14% TS / 11% AYS / 73% routes Week 2

Isaiah Likely - 47% routes Week 2 / three tgts Week 2

Tyler Conklin - 7% TS / 3% AYS

Jordan Akins - 47% routes Week 2 / one target Week 2

Cade Otton - 8% TS / 2% AYS

Pitts notably dropped from 96% snap share Week 1 to 72% in Week 2 even though the Falcons used 11 personnel on every snap against the Eagles. Charlie Woerner took 28% of those snaps over Pitts, who finished fifth on the team in targets and had just 16 air yards. Kirk Cousins looked much better in his second game with the Falcons, but it didn't help Pitts at all.

Kincaid also isn't getting air yards, but the Bills are at least feeding him screens and other quick/scripted targets. He got two passes early in Thursday's win over Miami but then missed a few snaps after getting banged up. The Bills also just haven't had many dropbacks, which is partially a real concern (running the ball more) and partially a fluke due to reduced overall volume.

LaPorta is least concerning of the big names here, but it does seem Jameson Williams' emergence is making the tight end somewhat less of a priority in Detroit. There's an awful lot of competition for the ball, and tight ends tend to be more sensitive to that than wide receivers.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

Only includes players rostered in half or less of Yahoo! Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

1. Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYG) - 42%
2. Gabe Davis (at BUF) - 34%
3. Jauan Jennings (at LAR) - 3%
4. Demarcus Robinson (vs. SF) - 42%
5. Darnell Mooney (vs. KC) - 20%
6. Rashod Bateman (at DAL) - 11%
7. Tyler Johnson (vs. SF) - 11% 
8. Jalen Tolbert (vs. BAL) - 2%
9. Ray-Ray McCloud (vs. KC) - 6%
10. Josh Reynolds (at TB) - 2%

Bench Stashes

1. Romeo Doubs - 45%
2. Quentin Johnston - 9%
3. Jordan Whittington -  2%
4. Dontayvion Wicks (at TEN) - 15%
5. Ja'Lynn Polk - 13%
6. Mike Williams - 30%
7. Josh Downs (ankle) - 21%
8. Ricky Pearsall (IR) - 7%
9. Xavier Legette - 12% 
10. Jalen McMillan - 7%  
11. Jermaine Burton - 2%
12. Roman Wilson (ankle) - 3%

Johnston is worth adding even if you're like me and don't really believe in him. The combination of production, usage shares and first-round draft capital means there's a real ceiling here, although I wouldn't want to start him this weekend against the Steelers (in a game that figures to feature a lot of run plays on both sides and quite possibly depressed volume overall). 

Potential Drops

1. Allen Lazard - 44%
2. Joshua Palmer - 44% (shallow leagues)
3. Hollywood Brown - 40%
4. Curtis Samuel - 34%
5. Jahan Dotson - 17%
6. Greg Dortch - 15%
7. Michael Wilson - 12%
8. Andrei Iosivas - 7%
9. Marvin Mims - 5%

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Hunter Henry (at NYJ) - 25%
2. Colby Parkinson (vs. SF) - 47%
3. Noah Fant (vs. MIA) - 30%
4. Mike Gesicki (vs. WAS) - 6%
5. Tucker Kraft (at TEN) - 4%
6. Zach Ertz (at CIN) - 8%

While he shouldn't be started this week if Malik Willis is at quarterback, Kraft's ample playing time through two weeks suggests he could be useful once Jordan Love (MCL) is back in the lineup. Henry is the obvious TE add in most leagues and worthy of a solid FAAB bid if you're badly in need at the position. Just keep in mind that he's probably already had his best game this year and might only average something like 40 yards even if he truly is New England's No. 1 pass catcher.

Potential Drops

1. Cole Kmet - 44%
2. Luke Musgrave - 40%
3. Chigoziem Okonkwo - 11%
4. Jordan Akins - 7%