This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Thursday Night's matchup has the 4-1 Buccaneers traveling to Philadelphia to take on the 2-3 Eagles. Tampa Bay is a 6.5-point road favorite in a game that features a rather high 52.5-point total. Both teams are coming off of impressive wins last week as the Buccaneers trounced the Dolphins while the Eagles upset the Panthers in Carolina. Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts have been two of best quarterbacks in fantasy this season, and I expect more of than same Thursday. Even though Tampa Bay is a big favorite, I think it would be a mistake to stack Bucs unless you're planning for a blowout script. There should be plenty of fantasy points on both sides and the cheaper salaries on the Eagles players make it likely that a few will end up on the optimal lineup. As always when it comes to constricting showdown lineups, pick a specific game script and build lineups to fit that scenario.
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady ($12,400 DK, $16,500 FD) has made an early case for MVP through five games. Last week against the Dolphins, he threw for 411 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. For the season, he's leading the league in passing yards per game at 353.4 and has the best TD-to-INT ratio with 15:2. Philadelphia's defense has been good against the pass as they've yet allow a 300-yard passing game all season and have held three of five opponents to less than 200. While Brady has proven to be matchup proof, those numbers from the Eagles could at least give some pause for concern. He's the most expensive player on both sites. On FanDuel, he will be a popular choice in the MVP spot as quarterbacks usually are because salary doesn't matter. On DraftKings, I'll look to avoid him in the captain spot, especially in lineups that also have Jalen Hurts. The salary is just too high considering that Tampa Bay's receivers are expensive too.
Jalen Hurts ($11,800 DK, $15,500 FD) is the only quarterback in the league to put up a top-10 score for his position in all five weeks. Tampa Bay's defense has given up the fourth-most fantasy points in the league to QBs. They'll be without at least three of their top cornerbacks as they remain banged up in the back seven. Only Lamar Jackson has rushed for more yards than Hurts at the position this season. Everything sets up well for him to have a good game Thursday. Similar to Brady, he's a great option for the MVP spot on FanDuel. On DraftKings, I prefer him in the flex based on the high salary, but he makes for a better option in the captain spot than Brady based on his rushing upside and that he isn't dependent on high-priced pass catchers to put up a big score.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
The Bucs feature a trio of elite wide receivers. Mike Evans ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD) is coming off of his best game of the season Sunday when he caught six balls for 113 yards and two scores. It was his second game with multiple TDs in the last four. A matchup on the outside with star CB Darius Slay could be cause for concern Thursday. Chris Godwin ($9,400 DK, $13,000 FD) led the team in targets last week with 11. While he's only caught two touchdowns this season, he leads the team in red-zone targets, so you'd expect that to change soon. Antonio Brown ($8,200 DK, $11,500) looks to be back to his best after catching seven of eight targets for 124 yards and two scores Sunday. He's been showing the big-play ability that we got used to when he was in Pittsburgh. I mentioned Evans might have a tougher matchup with Darius Slay but it's his high salary that has me preferring Godwin and Brown. With Scotty Miller out injured, Tyler Johnson ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD) has been seeing work as the No. 4 WR. He's caught three balls in two of the last three games and the cheap salary makes him appealing for large-field contests.
DeVonta Smith ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD) has looked the part after the Eagles drafted him 10th overall this year. He's caught seven passes in consecutive games and has clearly established himself as Hurts' favorite target. Thursday's matchup sets up well as the Bucs defense is depleted in the secondary. The Eagles don't necessarily have a No. 2 WR as Jalen Reagor ($5,000 DK, $7,500 FD) and Quez Watkins ($4,600 DK, $7,000 FD) have split that role. Last Sunday, Watkins played 10 more snaps but Reagor ran one more route and saw two more targets. The speedy Watkins is a bigger deep threat while Reagor is more of a possession guy. Both are likely touchdown-dependent Thursday. No. 4 WR Greg Ward ($800 DK, $6,000 FD) has caught only two passes this season. Both went for TDs in garbage time of games that were already decided. I'd prefer Tyler Johnson for the same salary on the Bucs side.
Moving to tight end, Rob Gronkowski (ribs) is expected to miss a second consecutive week, meaning Cameron Brate ($4,800 DK, $6,500 FD) and O.J. Howard ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD) would split duties. Last week, Howard out-snapped Brate 44 to 28. Brate ran 20 routes to Howard's 17. Both are touchdown-depended and I'd prefer Howard strictly based on the cheaper salary.
Dallas Goedert (COVID-19) was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday making it unlikely that he plays on Thursday. Zach Ertz ($3,200 DK, $6,500 FD) would be in line for the majority of snaps at TE. He's already drawn at least six targets in three straight weeks. His salary is cheap too and assuming Goedert is out, he looks like the best value on the slate. I'll have significant exposure to Ertz and he makes sense in any style of build, with Hurts or without.
RUNNING BACKS
Leonard Fournette ($7,800 DK, $11,000 FD) continued his role as the Bucs main RB last week, rushing 12 times for 67 yards and a TD while catching four of five targets for 43 yards. Despite the return of third-down back Giovani Bernard ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD), Fournette still ran 29 routes and has now caught at least three passes in every game this season. Bernard had four carries and caught both of his targets, including one for a TD on 3rd-and-goal from the 10. His salary for Thursday seems a bit too high, though. Ronald Jones ($1,800 DK, $7,500 FD) hasn't received more than six carries in a game this season as he remains firmly planted behind Fournette on the depth chart. He would need a touchdown to be optimal but the salary is cheap so he's still a viable option in the large-field GPPs if you're planning for a blowout scenario. The Eagles have been below average against run, allowing 4.6 YPC and 147.8 yards per game to RBs.
Miles Sanders ($6,600 DK, $10,000 FD) averages just 42.8 rushing yards per game this season and has yet to find the end zone. It won't get any easier against a stout Tampa Bay run defense that's been largely impenetrable this season. It was nice to see Sanders catch all five of his targets last week even though they went for a combined six receiving yards. His receiving upside keeps him in the conversation for Thursday, though I'd prefer taking a shot on the cheaper Kenneth Gainwell ($2,400 DK, $8,500 FD). He's drawn at least three targets in every game this season and the Eagles are likely to be playing from behind, meaning he should see significant usage.
KICKERS
Usually kickers make more sense in games with lower totals but that doesn't mean Jake Elliott ($4,400 DK, $8,000) and Ryan Succop ($4,200 DK, $9,000) aren't in play, it's quite the opposite on this slate. Look at the players priced directly above them. It's not hard to imagine that neither Bernard, Reagor, Watkins nor Brate scores double-digit fantasy points, and one of the kicker's definitely could. The options directly below are the two defenses, neither of which projects well for Thursday. I'll have exposure to both kickers but not in the same lineup.
DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS
I'd rather take a chance on a cheap defense that doesn't project well over an expensive one that's going to be relatively popular. We've seen defenses priced around $6,000 in many of these primetime single-game contests and they end up somewhat popular because they're in a good spot or the game has a low total. That said, I don't mind just fading both defenses. The game projects to be high scoring and there are better options both above and below the Buccaneers ($3,800) and Eagles ($2,800). If I was to take a chance on one, it'd be the Eagles, based solely off the fact that they're cheaper and will be less popular with few people wanting to roster them against Brady and the potent Bucs offense.
