This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
We're gifted an "exciting" NFC East matchup Thursday night, with the Eagles 4.5-point home favorites against the Giants in a game with a 45.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Philadelphia comes in 1-4-1 after losing to the Ravens last week, while the Giants are close behind at 1-5, picking up their first win of the season last week against Football Team, who are tied with the Giants at the bottom of the division. However, playoff hopes are still very much alive for both teams, as the Cowboys lead the division at 2-4. For anyone who can appreciate a relegation battle in soccer, this sure feels like one.
QUARTERBACKS
Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, which isn't overly surprising given how poor both teams have been this season. Wentz comes in with the fourth-most passing attempts in the NFL, but he's really struggled connecting with his receivers, completing only 138 passes for a 58.7 percent completion rate, ranking 37th among quarterbacks who have made at least two appearances. Additionally, his 1,475 passing yards are the 17th-most and 21 quarterbacks have thrown more touchdown passes than his eight. Oh, and Kirk Cousins is the only one in the NFL to have more passes intercepted (10 to nine) and no one has fumbled more. Reminder: this is the most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel. If there's one thing that has saved Wentz from being a total disaster is that he's rushed for a team-high four touchdowns, and he's fifth among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season (171), so there's that.
On the other side is Daniel Jones ($10,400 DK, $14,500 FD), the second-most expensive player on both sites (not counting Miles Sanders because he's already been ruled out). Jones has only lost one fewer fumble than Wentz, while Cousins, Wentz and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the only players with more interceptions than Jones' six. Maybe even worse, Jones has only three passing touchdowns, a total surpassed by 29 quarterbacks this season. And while we want to give credit to Wentz for his rushing yards, we have to do the same for Jones because he's one of the four QBs with more (204), as only Kyler Murray (370), Lamar Jackson (346) and Cam Newton (225) are above him. Unfortunately, they have six, two and five rushing touchdowns, respectively, while Jones hasn't scored on the ground yet.
So yeah, these are the most expensive players in a game between two teams that are a combined 2-9-1.
RUNNING BACKS
The backfield situations also look much different than what we were expecting before the season began, as the Giants are without superstar running back Saquon Barkley because of a torn ACL suffered in Week 2, while the Eagles don't have Miles Sanders after he suffered his own knee injury just last week against the Ravens. Sanders' injury isn't nearly as severe as Barkley's, but we already know he won't play Thursday night.
The Giants will continue to rely on Devonta Freeman ($7,400 DK, $11,000 FD) to lead the backfield like he did last week against Football Team when he rushed 18 times for 61 yards and caught one of two targets on 11 routes for four receiving yards. It's clear Freeman is going to get the early down work, but Dion Lewis ($1,600 DK, $6,000 FD) takes over on obvious passing downs. Lewis' targets aren't that plentiful, and he ran only six routes last week on 19 percent of snaps, so it's tough to get overly excited when it's clear Freeman is going to be the guy on early downs. In the event Freeman suffers an injury, the Giants seem likely to turn to Wayne Gallman ($800 DK, $6,000 FD) for the rushing work and keep Lewis as the pass catcher.
If you think the Giants can win, or at least keep the game close, and don't want to try to play through their passing game, then Freeman as a captain/MVP play makes sense. Then again, the Eagles have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season, so maybe this isn't the best way to attack them.
Sanders' absence will have Boston Scott ($8,400 DK, $6,500 FD) move to the top of the depth chart, and he figures to be much more popular on FanDuel because he's so cheap there. Priced as the fifth-highest player on DraftKings, and the highest running back, Scott is the 13th-highest overall on FanDuel, with both kickers more expensive. Fantasy players may remember getting excited about playing Scott in Week 1 when Sanders was out, only to see him rush nine times for 35 yards and catch both of his targets for 19, which isn't exactly the level of production they were hoping for from the lead back for a team that was firmly favored.
Corey Clement ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD) figures to get some additional work as well, though we can't expect much after last week when Scott out-snapped Clement 33 to seven after the Sanders injury, according to PFF's Nathan Jahnke. As Jerry Donabedian notes in his week's Hidden Stat Line, Scott played 56 percent of snaps, rushing nine times and getting two targets on 24 routes in Week 1 while Clement was on for 38 percent of snaps, rushing six times and getting targeted on two of his 15 routes. Given what we saw in those two instances, primary access to the Philadelphia backfield should be Scott, who could be a popular captain on DraftKings, though FanDuel players who use him as MVP won't get big salary benefit because there's no salary multiplier.
WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS
One of the reasons Wentz and Jones have struggled this season is that their teams have dealt with a plethora of injuries to their pass catchers, and many will be sidelined again Thursday. In addition to missing out on Sanders, the Eagles' fourth-most targeted player this season, they will also be without tight end Zach Ertz (ankle), who leads them in targets and is tied for the team-lead in receptions. Fellow tight end Dallas Goedert remains on IR, as does rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor, while Alshon Jeffery will not make his season debut as he continues to sit out with calf and foot injuries. However, all is not lost, as DeSean Jackson ($5,800 DK, $8,000 FD) will play after recovering from a hamstring injury that he suffered in Week 3 against the Bengals.
Despite missing three games, Jackson has the third-most targets among Eagles who will be active Thursday, and his 348 air yards are the second-most on the team. Despite only 46 and 64 yards in his first two games, respectively, Jackson figures to be popular because he's pretty cheap and at least had 16 targets in that span. Jackson's return should also have an effect on Travis Fulgham ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD), who has been a revelation since debuting in Week 4, scoring a touchdown in every game and getting 23 targets in the past two, a span that saw him catch 16 for 227 yards and two scores. Despite only playing three games, Fulgham leads the team in receiving yards (284) and receiving touchdowns (three), and while the effect of Jackson's return is simply that someone else might be getting a few of the targets, it's more likely to knock John Hightower ($1,200 DK, $7,000 FD), the team-leader in air yards (402) and aDOT (21.2). Fulgham's increase in opportunities has more come at the expense of Greg Ward ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD), who had just eight targets in the past two games after getting 18 in Weeks 3 and 4 combined.
We also couldn't possibly forget about J.J. Arcega-Whiteside ($2,400 DK, $5,500 FD) after he scored a touchdown last week. Actually, we can, as the score came on a fumble recovery in the end zone, and he has just one catch on four targets this season. Instead, maybe focus on Richard Rodgers ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD) as he steps in for the injured Ertz and Goedert. While he isn't on their level, Wentz has very clearly favored his tight ends, so Rodgers is certainly a worthwhile option in the Eagles' passing game.
Fulgham's increased usage lately will surely have people considering him as captain/MVP, though the salary multiplier works in Jackson's favor because he's so much cheaper as the ninth most-expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel (not including inactive players or backups).
Anyone interested in the Giants' passing game will surely start with wide receiver Darius Slayton ($9,200 DK, $12,500 FD) because he leads the team in targets (44), air yards (569), receptions (25), receiving yards (406), aDOT (12.9) and receiving touchdowns (three). The injury absence of Sterling Shepard certainly opened things up for Slayton, and while Golden Tate ($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD) is technically the No. 2 wide receiver, he has 20 fewer targets, six fewer receptions, 250 fewer receiving yards and 424 fewer air yards. So, Tate's there, but it's tough to be optimistic about a guy who hasn't reached 50 receiving yards in a game yet this season, topping out at five catches, which happened in Weeks 2 and 3.
The real No. 2 receiver for the Giants is tight end Evan Engram ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD), but even he has been far from prolific in terms of fantasy production (which isn't surprising given how poor his quarterback has been). What's particularly odd about Engram is that he's not a big down-field receiver and so you'd expect him to be more active for a quarterback with a 6.1 YPA, which ranks 35th in the NFL. Engram is still second on the team in targets (35), receptions (20), receiving yards (177) and air yards, but his 5.8 aDOT is pretty indicative of a tight end (Tate is only at 6.0). Backup tight end Kaden Smith ($2,000 DK, $5,500 FD) will also be in uniform, but it's tough to expect much from him as Engram's backup if Engram isn't even getting that much work, and the same applies to Austin Mack ($400 DK, $5,500 FD) after he ran 15 routes last week while filling in for C.J. Board, catching his only target for one yard.
Slayton seems like the obvious captain/MVP pick if you think the Giants won't be able to run much on Philadelphia, though it's a pricey move on DraftKings. That being said, there aren't a plethora of expensive players who need to be prioritized, and Slayton could certainly have a huge game even if Jones doesn't. If there's one hesitation about Slayton it's that he might be shadowed by Darius Slay, but the Giants may not have a choice but to throw his way.
KICKERS
A tight game with a relatively moderate total absolutely brings the kickers into play, and it only takes one look at Graham Gano ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) in Week 5 against Dallas when he scored 20.0 fantasy points thanks to four field goals, including THREE over 50 yards, and two PATs, to be intrigued. It was his fourth game this season with at least 8.0 fantasy points, and he should surely be in the cash-game discussion given how much the Giants have struggled to score touchdowns.
On the other hand, the Eagles' Jake Elliott ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) has had very few opportunities lately, and he hasn't taken advantage of them, going 0-for-1 on field-goal attempts in each of his past two games, a span that saw him connect on only three PATs. Theoretically, that can change at any time because kickers are fairly variant and the matchup against the Giants is much better than against the 49ers, Steelers and Ravens, their last three opponents, and both kickers are certainly safer than the players around them salary-wise, who likely need to score touchdowns to pay off.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Given how turnover-prone Wentz and Jones have been this season, you better believe the defenses are in play Thursday night. They're priced fairly similarly given the closeness of the game, and there's really not much that separates them in terms of median fantasy outputs. The Giants ($4,400 DK) haven't been forcing many turnovers or generating many sacks, which is why they only scored 14.0 and 11.0 fantasy points in each of the past two games despite defensive touchdowns in each.
The Eagles ($4,600) benefited from a defensive touchdown in Week 4 against San Francisco, but they followed that up with minus-1.0 against Pittsburgh and 2.0 against Baltimore. But again, they're now facing Jones and potentially making him throw if the offense can get up, so there will be plenty of rosters with one or both defenses.
