Wednesday Afternoon Football DFS Breakdown: Ravens vs. Steelers

Monday Night Football. Thursday Night Football. Sunday Night Football.

And now, Wednesday Afternoon Football.

Football fans are being "treated" to midweek daytime NFL action Wednesday, as the thrice-postponed Ravens at Steelers game will be played at 3:40 p.m. ET because NBC, who will broadcastno the game, had zero interest in televising the most popular sport in the United States over the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony.

The game was postponed enough that a few players who were initially ruled out will be eligible to play after satisfying their COVID close-contact isolations, though there are still key players missing, which is why the Steelers are 10.0-point home favorites against the Ravens in a game with a low 41.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Needless to say, this isn't where the line opened before all the COVID issues arose:

QUARTERBACKS

With Lamar Jackson ($11,000 DK, $16,500 FD) on the reserve/COVID-19 list, we won't have the opportunity to roster the most expensive player on FanDuel and the second-most on DraftKings. Instead, Robert Griffin ($8,400 DK, $14,500 FD) will get his first start since Week 17 of last season against a defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. That includes a recent run of allowing fewer than 250 passing yards in six straight games, including five under 225. The span also saw just seven passing touchdowns given up, so optimism for Griffin can't be that high. We might find some solace in the potential rushing upside, but Jackson needed 16 rushing attempts to reach 65 yards in Week 8 against Pittsburgh, and Griffin doesn't move like Jackson nor have his speed.

There is a little more optimism from a matchup standpoint for Ben Roethlisberger ($11,400 DK, $16,000 FD), the most expensive player on both sites if we ignore Jackson, as the Ravens have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. However, they allowed four rushing touchdowns, plus four passing touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes in Week 3, so a few outlier games have pushed them from being an elite defense. Roethlisberger didn't have a great game against them, completing 21-of-32 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8, and given the low total in Wednesday's game, an offensive explosion isn't expected.

The low total won't have many considering both quarterbacks, and Roethlisberger is surely to be a more popular captain/MVP play, especially because he likes to spread his targets around fairly evenly to his three excellent wide receivers, plus a solid tight end and pass-catching running backs. A Griffin captain/MVP lineup will surely be contrarian, though it's also likely to finish below the cash line.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

No team has thrown fewer passes than the Ravens this season, though there's an argument to be made that they could throw more than they usually do because Griffin doesn't run like Jackson and they'll be trying to play catch-up. More throws doesn't necessarily mean more production, however, and we also have the difficulty in that the Ravens' top pass catcher won't play after testing positive for COVID-19.

The COVID absences of Mark Andrews and Willie Snead leave the Ravens without two of their three most-targeted players this season, which presumably opens up more opportunities for Marquise Brown ($5,800 DK, $10,000 FD), the team leader in air yards (883) and aDOT (15.5) on just one fewer target than Andrews' 60. Brown was recently vocal about not getting the ball enough, and the team responded by giving him three targets last week against Tennessee, none of which he caught. He's had three or fewer receptions in four straight games, failing to reach even 40 yards in a game during that span, but if he's one of the only good options out there Wednesday, presumably he has to get more passes thrown to him, right?

Other absences leave us with Devin Duvernay ($3,200 DK, $8,500 FD), Dez Bryant ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD), Miles Boykin ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD) and James Proche ($800 DK, $5,000 FD) on the wide receiver depth chart, while Andrews' absence leaves us with technically no one because backup tight end Nick Boyle is on injured reserve with a knee injury and there's no one behind him. Eric Tomlinson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Jerell Adams ($200 DK, not on FanDuel) are in the player pool (at least on DraftKings), but neither are on the Ravens' active roster yet.

There's really not much else to say other than we're looking at a bunch of guys who play for a team that doesn't pass that much and will be using their backup quarterback. Duvernay at least gives us the benefit of being their kickoff returner, so we know he'll have the ball in his hands a few times, though it only helps if he can take one to the house. Given the situation, Brown figures to be the most popular, but you could take a shot on any and hope for the best, a situation that's never ideal for those who make a limited number of lineups.

The Steelers have the opposite issue for fantasy players, with three very good wide receivers and a solid pass-catching tight end. Diontae Johnson ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD) is the most expensive of the group on both DraftKings and FanDuel, followed by Chase Claypool ($10,400 DK, $11,500 FD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9,600 DK, $11,000 FD) in terms of salary. Johnson leads them in targets, Smith-Schuster in catches and Claypool in yards and touchdowns, which doesn't make it easy to focus on one over the others. Johnson is generally the most consistent when it comes to targets, and the small price difference could lead him to be the most popular, followed by Claypool because of his touchdowns. That obviously leaves Smith-Schuster as the slight differential, which is perfectly fine since he has plenty of upside anyway. Here are the target and receiving yard trends from this season: 

Tight end Eric Ebron ($6,600 DK, $9,000 FD) is certainly a fine option, especially because he's decently cheaper than the wide receivers, but he's really touchdown dependent to even reach their higher floors. If you're looking for something deeper, James Washington ($3,600 DK, $7,000 FD) seems like a reasonable stretch, though he actually has fewer targets than Ray-Ray McCloud ($1,200 DK, $6,000 FD) over the last three games. Then again, Washington's 10.7 aDOT is the third-highest on the team, while McCloud's is minus-1.5 (yes).

But before we get too excited about all of the Steelers' pass catchers, we have to recognize that only three teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than the Ravens, who have given up a league-low five receiving touchdowns and 1,490 receiving yards. They haven't been nearly as dominant against tight ends, though they did allow three touchdowns in the past five games, including Week 8 to Ebron, who has scored in three of his last four games.

It's certainly viable to captain/MVP one of the Steelers receivers, but their prices make it difficult to have multiple, and you are left without the third, who could go off. However, decisions have to be made, and it seems Claypool could be the popular one because of the touchdowns, but Johnson sure is tempting because of all the targets.

RUNNING BACKS

The third postponement that moved the game from Tuesday to Wednesday was a huge benefit for the Ravens' backfield because they could have J.K. Dobbins ($7,200 DK, $12,000 FD) and Mark Ingram ($5,200 DK, $11,000 FD) back after their 10-day isolation periods, which finished Tuesday. The two haven't practiced in over a week, but it seems most likely that they'll get some opportunities, along with Gus Edwards ($6,200 DK, $12,500 FD), who was slated for lots of work if the game had been played last Thursday or Sunday or Monday. Dobbins seemed the most likely to get a bulk of the work before his mandatory break, so it's only a guess what will happen Wednesday in terms of workloads. If anything, Justice Hill ($2,200 DK, $9,000 FD) won't be in line for any meaningful work if Dobbins and Ingram are cleared to play, so that theoretically makes the player pool a bit tighter.

Pittsburgh has been excellent against the run this season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs, though all three times they allowed at least 100 rushing yards came in the last four games, including 200 to the Ravens in Week 8 when Dobbins rushed for 113 yards on 15 carries and Edwards went for 87 and a touchdown on 16. That wasn't all, as Jackson rushed 16 times for 65 yards in an absolutely dominant rushing performance that led them to a ... 28-24 loss because Jackson turned the ball over four times. Using a similar game-plan could certainly be in the cards, but Ingram is potentially around to muddy the backfield touches.

The Steelers aren't without COVID issues themselves, as starting running back James Conner is on the reserve/COVID list after testing positive, which should allow Benny Snell ($8,800 DK, $11,000 FD) to get the meaningful backfield touches. Snell hasn't had any significant touches since Week 1 when he started in place of Conner and rushed 19 times for 113 yards, and he'll now face a Ravens defense that's allowed over 130 rushing yards to running backs in back-to-back games, giving up five total touchdowns in that span. That downplays that they held Conner to 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and Anthony McFarland Jr. ($2,600 DK, $7,500 FD) to one on one, so we can't get overly fired up for Snell's potential as a bell-cow.

Choosing a Ravens running back as captain/MVP seems as difficult as landing on the right Steelers wide receiver, except the running backs usually need much more volume to make big impacts. The matchup for Snell isn't perfect, but considering how good the Ravens have been against the pass, and the fact that the Steelers are such big favorites, he could be a solid captain/MVP if he can get the workload.

KICKERS

Both Chris Boswell ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) and Justin Tucker ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) have been very consistent fantasy scorers this season, though you could have some concern about Tucker for Wednesday because of all the offensive absences the Ravens have.

Comparing them to the skill players in their price range, you have to consider the upside of guys like Bryant, Washington and Duvernay on DraftKings plus Ebron on FanDuel, but a lower-scoring game could make the kickers just as important in GPPs. They aren't likely to be overly popular, but if the game really grinds out then eight to 10 points from either Boswell or Tucker could be enough, even in tournaments.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Steelers ($7,800 DK) defense was already an elite unit, but playing a team missing their starting quarterback, top pass catcher among a slew of others pushes them to a ridiculously high salary for a defense. Given the variance of the position, it seems more likely that fantasy players will take their chances on the Ravens ($3,000) since they are less than half the price of the Steelers. Using them as captain/MVP is probably best for those making lots of lineups because they are just so variant, especially because they hit their ceilings with touchdowns and not few points allowed.