Yahoo DFS Football: Week 11 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 11 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

Overview

Last week, we were overwhelmed by an abundance of high-end running backs in great matchups, all of whom delivered in spades. Week 11 is jam-packed with solid quarterback matchups. For starters, we've got the Titans and Colts (53.5 projected total), in a game that will be heavily targeted by the masses. Expect both Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck to be among the top five highest-owned QBs this week. The Steelers and Patriots are heavy road favorites against two of the league's worst defenses in the Browns and 49ers, with both of them coming off heartbreaking Week 10 losses. Ben Roethlisberger ($39) and Tom Brady ($40) cost a pretty penny this week, so it may be worth our while to look at comparable options down the list with potential blowouts brewing. Le'Veon Bell ($40) is the priciest non-QB on the slate and it will be a tough call between Bell and DeMarco Murray ($39) as our RB1, if we even plan on paying up in that spot. Meanwhile, LeGarrette Blount sees a significant price bump up to $30 coming off a three-touchdown performance and a date with a Niners' defense allowing 180 yards per game on the ground. Wideout options are plentiful as they are every week. A few of the league's most dynamic ones are underpriced yet again, namely Jordy Nelson ($25), Allen Robinson ($23) and Dez Bryant ($22). The tight end pool could be the spot to save money this week with Rob Gronkowski questionable and Greg Olsen in the stand-alone Thursday game. Concerning Defense and Special Teams, expect the Dolphins to be a popular play against Jared Goff in his NFL debut. It's important for us to survey the entire field of options before locking in a chalky defense. There are several solid DST's to consider this week, especially in tournaments where we're looking to gain an edge on the field anywhere we can.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Blake Bortles (JAX, $32)

The options I feature in the tournament section each week are players I expect to fall heavily under the radar – at five percent owned and below. Quarterback is typically a spot you don't want to get too cute at, but every week there's a heavily off-the-radar option that puts up a monster performance. That was the case in Week 9 when Tyrod Taylor scored 26.86 FP and Eli Manning hit nearly 24 FP in a four-TD effort. Between Mariota vs. Luck, Rodgers vs. Cousins, Big Ben, Brady and Stafford, there are more than enough top-shelf options to roll with this week. After all, QB is the one position where the difference between the second-highest owned and the eighth-highest owned is typically just a few percentage points. On to the disappointment at hand. Bortles is in the midst of a full regression following a sterling sophomore campaign. He is on pace to surpass his league-leading 18 interceptions and won't come close to sniffing the 35 TD passes he threw last season. That said, Bortles is the king of 'garbage time', and that's exactly what we should expect this week – plenty of garbage time on the road against the Lions. Detroit has one of the league's worst pass defenses, allowing the third-most passing touchdowns (20) and ranking 26th in the league in yards per attempt allowed (7.8). Moreover, they are dead last in the league in DVOA against the pass. Bortles is always a risky play, but he won't get a better matchup than this one. A Bortles-Robinson combo deserves our attention this week.

Spencer Ware (KC, $26)

Going as far back as fantasy draft season, few running backs have received more attention or adulation than the Chiefs' bruiser. He will be well off the radar in Week 11, primarily because of his middling price point in a week where I expect most to attack cash games with a star-and-scrub strategy at running back. Ware was last relevant in Week 7 when he combined for 131 yards from scrimmage after running for 131 yards in Week 6 – two consecutive weeks with 20-plus Yahoo fantasy points. He missed Week 9 with a concussion and managed 61 yards on just 13 carries last week, though his three receptions was his best effort through the air since Week 1. Another week removed from his injury and with Charcandrick West taking no more than a handful of carries, Ware lines up for an advantageous home tilt against a middling group of Buccaneers' run stoppers. The Bucs let rookie Jordan Howard run for 100 yards on 16 carries last week while Devonta Freeman and Terron Ward combined for 107 rushing yards the previous week. The Bucs have allowed eight touchdowns on the ground so far and are ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (118). In a position that garners so much attention at the top with the Fearless Foursome (DJ, Zeke, Bell, Murray) while also encouraging scrolling all the way down for value plays like Starks that can provide cap savings, it behooves us to strongly consider a man who is on the precipice of a second half breakout. Ware bowls over defenders with the best of them, catches passes for long gains (two of 40-plus this year) and gets his fair share of goal line looks. Don't forget about him this week when you're building lineups.

DeVante Parker (MIA, $15)

Is it Week 12 yet? If so, then it's almost time for the Parker Train to take off. At least that's what happened last season when the Dolphins were finally ready to unleash him on the league. He rewarded them with a six week stretch starting in Week 12 in which he managed to either score or collect 80 yards in all but one outing. He averaged 74 yards on nearly four catches and 0.5 touchdowns over those final six weeks. Parker came into camp this year with a hampered hamstring, but popped off with an 8-106 line on a career-high 14 targets in Week 1. He then struggled with the injury and with playing time throughout the season, never getting fully healthy, but came back into our fantasy lives last week with a 5-103 line against the Chargers. It's not the first, nor even the second time you've seen Parker listed in this column this year. It's because I believe. I believe in his skill set and his ability to ascend up the leaderboard to join the elite at his position in the coming calendar year. What we'll likely get at this point is just a taste of that upside though before we reassess in the offseason, hoping and praying he gets to play with a quarterback who can take advantage of his strong suits – separation from defenders thanks to top-end speed on his way to consistent bombs of 40-plus yards. Parker looked great last week and, most importantly, healthy. He made great plays all across the field and took some of those passes for chunks of extra yardage. Given the options around his price point, 98 percent of the field will likely pass on Parker in a tough, defensive matchup against a stalwart Rams defense. But these are the types of players and contrarian spots that can produce value at receiver. If you're just looking to get a minimum cash in your GPPs, go ahead and play Dez, Robinson, Baldwin, Moncrief – all great options this week, all with mid-range salaries. But if you're going to try to win one of these, it's with an underpriced, two percent-owned guy in a matchup your opponents are overlooking. It may not even come this week, but it's coming. And I want Parker on my team when it does.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Eli Manning (NYG, $29), Ryan Tannehill (MIA, $29)
RB: Isaiah Crowell (CLE, $22), Thomas Rawls (SEA, $14)
WR: Doug Baldwin (SEA, $22), Marvin Jones Jr. (DET, $19), Pierre Garcon ($16)
TE: Julius Thomas (JAX, $15), Ladarius Green (PIT, $10)
DST: Cincinnati Bengals ($12)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota (TEN, $36)

Mariota is a man of fire lately and may well find himself in the discussion for league MVP. He ranks fourth behind Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in YTD fantasy points among quarterbacks, and has accounted for 10 touchdowns (nine passing) over his last three games. The Titans are the league's most efficient offense in the red zone, striking for touchdowns 77 percent of the time there. The 53.5 implied total in this game is the highest of Week 11, and the Titans are 3.5-point underdogs. The Colts' secondary is healthier these days with the return of cornerback Vontae Davis, but they've let opposing QBs throw 17 TD passes against them this season and are allowing 288 passing yards per game. Only the Saints have allow more yards per game this season. It's truly a tough call between Mariota and Luck in this matchup, but I'd lean on the guy who has the momentum going for him. In tournaments, consider stacking Mariota with his two premier passing options – Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker – both of whom are reasonably priced, at $21 and $22 respectively.

Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell (PIT, $40)

Bell finally hit paydirt last week after failing to find the end zone over his first five games. In fact, Bell scored twice (one as a pass-catcher) en route to a 29.9 fantasy point effort – the second-best mark among backs in Week 11. If you're planning to build around a high-priced RB this week, the decision is a difficult one, but that's part of what makes this so much fun. DeMarco Murray, who is a buck cheaper, has a rushing touchdown in five straight and has scored in eight of 10 games this year. David Johnson (@ MIN) and Ezekiel Elliott (home vs. BAL) have tougher tilts on paper, but have proved time and again this season to be matchup proof. Bell has the best setup of all as an 8.5-point road favorite against a Browns defense that has been shredded weekly against both the pass (31st in DVOA) and the run (29th). What's most amazing about the Steelers star is that he leads all running backs in receptions (45) and second in receiving yards (360), despite missing the first three games of the season due to suspension. Bell is an every-down weapon and should have no issue getting into the end zone and collecting 150 yards from scrimmage in this one. He gets the nod over the trio of other studs (Johnson, Elliott, Murray) this week in cash games.

James Starks (GB, $14)

Starks may not be 'cash game safe' quite yet, but he appears to be the team's lead back and is priced affordably. He was on the field for 55 of 74 team snaps last week, compared to just 22 for hybrid back Ty Montgomery. It's possible that Montgomery is not fully healed from his illness, but coach Mike McCarthy will likely lean on his traditional back once again this week. Starks received just seven carries in his return, but that was primarily due to the Titans' early lead and the necessary reliance on the arm of Aaron Rodgers. This week's opponent, the Redskins, managed to hold the Vikings to just 47 rushing yards on 21 carries in last week's game, but have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this year – tied for the league's second-worst mark. With few reliable options in his range, a $14 Starks allows us flexibility elsewhere on our roster.

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG, $38)

With so many fabulous options in the $20 to $30 range, it's entirely possible to cash in 50/50s and double ups this week without having to pay up for a premier receiver. Though Beckham struggled earlier this season (just as he did in the first month of 2015), it appears he is hitting his stride. He caught a season-best 10 passes against the Bengals last week, scoring a touchdown for the seventh time in five games. The Bears were able to contain the Bucs' Mike Evans last week (4-66) but allowed an 8-76-1 line to Stefon Diggs the prior week and are ranked 21st in DVOA against WR1's this season despite the efforts of relatively solid cornerback Tracy Porter. Beckham is always an elite threat given his speed and ability to separate. The Bears will attempt to contain him, but he is one of the few matchup-proof receivers in the league. Expect him to top 18 fantasy points for the fourth time in five games and put up the best line among wide receivers in Week 11.

Allen Robinson (JAX, $23)

Speaking of hitting one's stride, it only took ARob nine games to finally reach 100 receiving yards in a game. We've covered it in past columns, but most of the blame goes to quarterback Blake Bortles. Robinson has seen 40 targets over his past three games and has scored touchdowns in each of the last two. He's underpriced as the 11th-priciest wideout this week. If we're assume the Jags will be playing catch-up in the second half, we should expect Robinson to safely out-earn his affordable tag and provide us with a solid 15-point floor.

Donte Moncrief (IND, $19)

The Colts are fresh off a bye and line up against their division rivals for what is expected to be a shootout. We'd like to get a piece of this Colts offense. Surely, T.Y. Hilton is our preferred target, but there's a huge price discrepancy between Hilton as the fifth-most expensive wideout this week, and Moncrief, who is tied as the 27th-priciest. He has caught at least one touchdown pass from quarterback Andrew Luck in three of four games this season, and they have now connected on touchdown passes in eight of the last 12 games they have played together. A Luck-Moncrief-Hilton plus Delanie Walker or Rishard Matthews combo makes for an attractive game stack in GPPs. But in cash games, it's better to use the savings on Moncrief to fit in a trustworthy quarterback and top-flight running back.

Note: Cameron Meredith ($12) should be the highest-owned player in Yahoo DFS this week.

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett (NE, $16)

So many options, yet just one roster slot. (Or two, if you plan to flex a tight end this week). Bennett was a sneaky Sunday night hammer play last week and he came through for a select few, catching all seven of his targets for 107 yards. There were concerns Monday that Rob Gronkowski suffered a punctured lung after a hard hit mid-field by Seahawks' safety Earl Thomas, though the damage may not be as bad as originally reported. Nevertheless, Gronk is in danger of missing Sunday's game with the Niners, but Bennett will be a popular option either way given the matchup. Jaguars' red zone target Julius Thomas deserves consideration facing a TE-friendly Lions' defense (nine tight end TDs allowed), but he's more of a GPP play given his weak contribution in receiving yards. Those who can afford it will easily pay up for Delanie Walker following his monster Week 10 performance (9-124-1, 22.9 FP), but if Gronk sits this one out, Bennett provides us with the safest floor among Week 11 tight ends.

Defense/Special Teams

New York Giants ($15)

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Jay Cutler followed up his Week 10 dud (182 passing yards on 16 completions) with a studly out-of-nowhere performance. That would be classic Cutler, wouldn't it? But it would be much wiser to bet against it, at least for this week. The Bears hit the road against a top 10 secondary and without their premier weapon on the outside, Alshon Jeffery. The Giants are tied for fifth in the league with nine interceptions this season and have allowed the 11th-fewest points per game, but there are a couple of concerns with their defense as a whole. The Giants rarely get to opposing QBs (14 sacks is the league's third-worst mark) and they've only forced one fumble – dead last in the league. The Chiefs at home against Jameis Winston will be this week's chalkiest option. The Dolphins and Rams are also both solid plays in the week's lowest projected total (40 points). But the Giants at home against an Alshon-less Cutler is my favorite play of the week across both cash games and GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Andrew Luck (IND, $36), Kirk Cousins (WAS, $32)
RB: DeMarco Murray (TEN, $39), LeGarrette Blount (NE, $30), Theo Riddick (DET, $22)
WR: T.Y. Hilton (IND, $31), Jordy Nelson (GB, $25), Dez Bryant (DAL, $22), Cameron Meredith (CHI, $12)
TE: Delanie Walker (TEN, $22), Zach Miller (CHI, $17)
DEF: Kansas City Chiefs ($20), Miami Dolphins ($18)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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