This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries, and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.
Overview
Week 13 is, quite simply, a week in which most of our attention will be focused on a single game. The Lions and Saints face off in a matchup filled with fantasy goodness. Even the 53.5 implied total feels a tad light when you consider the firepower of both offenses and the ineptitude of the defenses. Game stacking will surely be in play, but we also know how unpredictable and volatile the NFL is from week to week. We're not expecting a defensive 17-14 type of game, though we need to be sure to properly assess all of the other games on the slate, as there are oodles of value plays to consider. The Giants-Steelers game should be another high-scoring, competitive match, featuring two of the league's premier wideouts. Chiefs-Falcons and Bills-Raiders have implied totals approaching 50 points and contain several reasonably priced targets that could help build our crazy jigsaw puzzle this week. Moreover, pricing is tighter than it's ever been. We're going to have some tough decisions to make, especially in cash games. Selecting Drew Brees with one of his receivers, plus David Johnson as our RB1, swallows up over 50 percent of our salary cap in Week 13, leaving little wiggle room at the other five positions. You don't need me to tell you that Brees, Johnson, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham are good plays. They're expensive for a reason and will be even tougher to fit in this week, though Beckham is discounted at just $31. Let's navigate through some of the games so that we can identify the best bangs for our buck in Week 13.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Latavius Murray (OAK, $24)
Murray has proven to be a mediocre running back over the last two years, but he's a worthwhile DFS asset for tournaments if you can properly time him. The Raiders are three-point favorites at home, facing a Bills run defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and has allowed 13 touchdowns on the ground this season. Derek Carr's dislocated pinky on his throwing hand should be in better shape come game time and we shouldn't assume it will negatively affect him this week. Nevertheless, it's great to see Murray more involved as a receiver. He caught three balls for 43 yards last week and five for 59 the previous week. His weekly carries are volatile (19-12-20-11-18 over his last five) but he is a preferred weapon near the goal line and is tied for fourth among backs with nine rushing touchdowns. DeAndre Washington was a healthy scratch last week, while Jalen Richard was in on just 13 snaps against the Panthers in Week 12, compared to 49 for Murray. I'm playing him in GPPs with the expectation of 120 yards from scrimmage, a few catches and at least one trip into the end zone.
Will Fuller (HOU, $14)
It's about time for Fuller to re-emerge, and a matchup playing catch-up against the Packers on the road feels like the right spot for it to happen. He has had a rough couple of months after starting his career with back-to-back games of 100-plus receiving yards. He's lightning fast (4.32 40-yard dash time at the Combine), but it's quite apparent that the shortcomings of quarterback Brock Osweiler have negatively impacted both Fuller and stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Fuller hit 60 yards last week for the first time since Week 5, and managed less than five fantasy points over his five previous outings. He's a big time boom-or-bust option, but I'm expecting some garbage time action and at least one big play for Fuller this week. If you're targeting the passing game in this one, Hopkins ($19) is a safer option, but we'll need to find bargains this week – and that is exactly what a $14 Fuller represents in Week 13.
Ladarius Green (PIT, $11)
This may be the last week that Green flies under the radar. Green will be playing in just his fourth game after dealing with an ankle injury and headaches for most of the season. He put up a goose egg two weeks ago (two targets, eight snaps) but made the most of just 14 snaps last week, catching two of three targets for 67 yards. Coach Tomlin said that he expects Green to "have an increased role in the offense going forward" and we should expect him to out-snap fellow tight end Jesse James starting this Sunday. Green is a big-bodied (6-foot-6, 240 lbs.) target in the red zone for Ben Roethlisberger. He started strong last season for the Chargers (50.6 YPG, four TD over his first six games) before ceding usage to veteran Antonio Gates. The Giants rank 23rd in DVOA against tight ends this season and prior to rendering TE Gary Barnidge useless last week, they served up 61 yards and a TD to Zach Miller in Week 11, 96 yards to Tyler Eifert in Week 10 and 97 yards to Zach Ertz in Week 9. My love for Ladarius may be a tad much, but I truly believe a blowup game is right around the corner.
Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Tyrod Taylor (BUF, $31), Eli Manning (NYG, $28)
RB: Carlos Hyde (SF, $21), Devontae Booker (DEN, $18), Dion Lewis (NE, $18)
WR: Brandin Cooks (NO, $25), Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI, $11), Chris Hogan (NE, $12) – my off-the-radar pick over teammate Malcolm Mitchell ($15) this week
TE: Vance McDonald (SF, $14), Vernon Davis (WAS, $10)
DST: New York Jets ($16), Green Bay Packers ($11)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (DET, $33)
Anyone who plays fantasy football knows that Drew Brees is a monster at home. His home-road splits are highly skewed in favor of the Superdome, and he has thrown seven touchdown passes over his last two games there. He's the top play of Week 13, but hard to work around with his $40 tag. A pivot to Stafford provides us with exposure to this game at a $7 savings. He will be popular as well, but perhaps some will over-analyze his recent performances. You couldn't ask for tougher passing matchups than his last four – Vikings, Jaguars, Vikings, Texans – yet Stafford held his own, averaging a somewhat respectable 14.19 fantasy points per game over that stretch. The Lions will have to rely on his arm to keep pace with Brees and his crew. Stafford is easily pairable or even game-stackable with either of his receivers (Jones and Tate – both $19) or his pass-catching back, Theo Riddick ($20).
Running Backs
Jordan Howard (CHI, $31)
We're well aware that David Johnson is an easy plug-and-play each and every week, but it behooves us to consider cheaper alternatives if we want to build an all-around competitive team. The hard part is remembering that Johnson has crossed the goal line five times in his last three games and has a fantastic matchup – the Redskins have allowed a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns. He does have a dislocated finger, but that shouldn't affect him nor stop you from plugging him in. If you don't plan to go that route though, consider Howard at a $10 discount against the league's 30th ranked rush defense by DVOA, as the 49ers allow a league-worst 171.8 rushing yards per game. Better yet, check out their rushing yards per carry allowed – 5.1 is the worst rate in the NFL, and Howard's 5.1 YPC ranks fourth behind Mark Ingram (5.3), Jay Ajayi (5.3) and LeSean McCoy (5.2). The Bears are currently two-point favorites at home and Howard is averaging nearly 15 carries per game. Expect him to get into the box at least once and approach 150 yards from scrimmage in this one.
Mark Ingram (NO, $22)
Ingram ran wild last week, scoring twice and totaling a whopping 29.2 fantasy points against the Rams. He played on just 57 percent of snaps as he continues to trade carries with Tim Hightower, but that won't stop Ingram from being the most popular running back of Week 13. The obvious factors at play here are recency bias, and the fact that the Lions are a bottom-five rush defense by DVOA, not to mention this game boasts the highest implied point total (53.5) of the week and Ingram is still reasonably priced. I can't fault you for considering Hightower for just $13, but Ingram still represents the best projected point-per-dollar value among running backs this week.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall (NYJ, $20)
Marshall won't fly under the radar again following his 15.7 fantasy point performance against the Patriots last week. He managed just 67 yards on six receptions, but found the end zone for the first time since Week 5. He was outshone by fellow wideout Quincy Enunwa (5-109-1, 19.4 FP), who happens to have the same $20 price tag this week. This should help soak up some of Marshall's ownership share, keeping him at a reasonable rate. The Colts have the 30th ranked pass defense by DVOA and may be without their best cornerback, Vontae Davis, who suffered a groin injury last week, though coach Chuck Pagano is optimistic that Davis will play. Nevertheless, it's a great matchup for Marshall and a chance to get some exposure to the Monday night game. Look for him to flirt with his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 5.
Marvin Jones (DET, $19)
Golden Tate is the same price as Jones for this battle with the Saints. Most folks looking to grab a piece of the Lions' passing attack will likely gravitate towards Tate, who has averaged nine targets over the last six games compared to just six targets per for Jones. The tables have certainly turned over the last two months, as Tate has reaffirmed himself as the 1A to Jones' 1B after Jones averaged 136 receiving yards over the first three games of the season. He managed just four catches last week, but was targeted 11 times. That's the most he's seen since Week 2 of the season, and four more than Tate saw last week. I have no qualms with you choosing the guy with the safer floor (Tate) in cash games this week, but I'll be running with the Lions' deep threat in this likely shootout.
Tyreek Hill (KC, $18)
We can't expect anything but a letdown this week following Hill's monster three-touchdown, 28 FP outing in Week 12. Most impressive is the fact that he scored in three different ways – a rushing TD, a receiving TD and a punt return. Only thing missing was the passing touchdown. It's possible that Jeremy Maclin returns to face the Falcons this week, but that would only slightly downgrade Hill for us in cash games. He's a versatile Swiss army knife and has earned his spot as a vital member of this offense. A 3.5 spread in a 49.5 point implied total, coupled with the fact that the Falcons' stud cornerback Desmond Trufant is out for the year, bodes well for Hill's matchup. If you're not on board with the masses on the Chiefs' speedster, consider Sterling Shepard for $3 less. Eli Manning apologized to Shepard for not targeting him last week and you can expect Manning to make it up to the rookie wideout in a potentially high-scoring affair (49.5 implied total) between the Giants and Steelers.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham (SEA, $23)
If you're able to afford it, Graham is the best option at the position, facing a Panthers squad that has been generous to tight ends this season. The Panthers are allowing 12.84 Yahoo FP to tight ends – the third-worst mark in the league behind the Browns (15.29) and Lions (13.72). Graham ranks second among all tight ends with 706 receiving yards and should wreak havoc over the middle of the field and in the red zone, especially with stud linebacker Luke Kuechly out of the picture. Some may gravitate towards a $15 Coby Fleener after his 4-59 line last week, but it's worth noting that fellow Saints tight end Josh Hill out-snapped Fleener 58 to 18 in that game. It's a bit risky, but I'll be primarily rolling with Ladarius Green in most of my cash games and GPPs to allow roster flexibility for some of the studs at other positions. Vernon Davis ($10) is in play as well, but faces a Cardinals' defense that is extremely stout against opposition tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens ($18)
This week, we have a bevy of options to consider, including the Ravens against the Ryan Tannehill-led Dolphins and the Patriots, at home, in a massive 13.5 spread against the cross-country traveling Rams. The Jets are an intriguing Monday Night hammer play facing a Colts team that has allowed the second-most sacks this season. It's a much more palatable play if Scott Tolzien lines up under center instead of the recently concussed Andrew Luck, though Luck should be active for this one. If you're bargain shopping, the Packers at $11 are worth a look as they'll likely get after Brock Osweiler. Osweiler is tied with Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick for the most interceptions (13) among quarterbacks this season. We know how volatile DSTs are on a weekly basis, but the Ravens are the best value with the safest floor – they've hit double-digit fantasy points in three of their last four games. The Broncos are on the road this week, but they have the juiciest matchup with the most upside – it's just hard to spring the extra few shekels for them when pricing is extremely tight.
Honorable Mentions
QB: Drew Brees (NO, $40), Colin Kaepernick (SF, $32)
RB: David Johnson (ARI, $41), Theo Riddick (DET, $20), Tim Hightower (NO, $13)
WR: Odell Beckham (NYG, $31), Michael Thomas (NO, $22), Golden Tate (DET, $19), Sterling Shepard ($15)
TE: Travis Kelce (KC, $21), Josh Hill (NO, $10)
DEF: Denver Broncos ($21), New England Patriots ($20)
