2024 The RSM Classic Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on November 20, 2024

The RSM Classic Betting Preview

The 2024 PGA Tour season concludes this week in St. Simons Island, Georgia, for The RSM Classic. The 156-player field will be contested at two venues at Sea Island Golf Club with golfers rotating between the Plantation and Seaside Courses the first two days, with those making the cut playing the final two rounds both at Seaside. With a large contingent of golfers residing in the area, we have a solid field for a fall event that includes 10 of the top-50 players in the OWGR. Last year, betting favorite Ludvig Aberg (12-1) odds won by four strokes over Mackenzie Hughes for his maiden Tour victory.

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Course Overview

Seaside Course: Par-70, 7,005 yards; Plantation Course: Par-72, 7,060 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions over the last five years.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 22.0
SG: Approach: 14.0
SG: Around-the-Green: 20.4
SG: Putting: 6.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 9.0
Driving Distance: 37.2
Driving Accuracy: 21.0

I'll mainly focus on the Seaside Course since that's where three of the four rounds will be played and the only one that tracks strokes gained data. Both courses play at similar yardage and the Plantation Course yields slightly better rounds as it isn't as affected by the weather and has two extra par-5s. With only three par-4s over 450 yards, this is a short course by Tour standards and despite having lengthy fairways that average over 40 yards wide, accuracy is at a premium over distance with water coming in play on several drives. Iron play is always a key factor and we'll see a lot of approach shots in the 100-150 yard range. Aberg picked the Seaside Course apart with back-to-back rounds of 61 over the weekend to win last year and 12 of the 18 holes played under par, so I'll certainly be targeting birdie makers in addition to accurate drivers and quality putters.

Sea Island Superstars

The following players have the lowest scoring average at the event since 2019.

The 2022 event champion tops the list after following up his win by posting a top-5 last year. That's quite the change from Svensson's previous three missed cuts here, but he's obviously risen his play significantly over the last couple of years. His success the last two years has been multi-faceted, as he led the field in SG: Approach last year and led in putting in 2022. Another RSM Classic champion on the list is Hughes (35-1 odds), who won in his event debut as a massive longshot at 250-1 odds. Since then, he's finished runner-up twice, and he has five rounds of 63 or better at the Seaside Course. Hughes has a top-10 finish in 2-of-3 starts this fall, so he's in good form and one to keep an eye on this week.

Approach Play

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Clanton is one of three amateurs in the field but isn't your typical am, as he's flashed his talent during his seven Tour starts this year that was highlighted by a T2 at the John Deere and a top-5 at the Wyndham. The Florida State junior has excelled with his iron play and sits as the top ranked golfer in the World Amateur Golf Rankings. He's a good value at 40-1 odds. Right behind him on the list is Glover, albeit with slightly better odds at 35-1. He has plenty of experience at the venues as a previous St. Simons resident that has made nine starts here. Glover has posted three top-15s here and has made five consecutive cuts. Also on the list is Woodland who sits 139th on the FedExCup Fall Standings, and he will need a big week to avoid using his career money list exemption for 2025.

The RSM Classic Bets: Outright Picks

Davis Thompson (22-1)

Thompson certainly has the home field advantage considering he grew up in Georgia and played collegiately in Athens. The St. Simons Island resident doesn't have the best track record here, but he's taken his game to new levels this year, most recently finishing T5 in Vegas.

Seamus Power (30-1)

Power has momentum coming into the event as he closed with a 65 on Sunday in Bermuda to post the lowest final round. He's also posted back-to-back top-5s at the event and ranked third in SG: Approach last year.

Andrew Novak (35-1)

Novak was in good position to win heading into the final round last week but ultimately finished runner-up. The third year Tour pro's ball striking has improved every year – he's up to 57th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 20th in approach and 10th in GIR.

The RSM Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Chandler Phillips (13-2)

Phillips will be making his event debut as a Tour rookie but should make for a good course fit as a short but accurate driver and strong putter. At 61st in SG: Total for the year, he's played much better than his two top-10s would suggest.

Steven Fisk (17-2)

Fisk is another player with Georgia ties and the 27-year-old received a sponsor exemption to make his PGA Tour debut after finishing fourth in the Korn Ferry Tour Standings this year. He went through an 11-tournament stretch this year with a win and six top-10s.

K.H. Lee (10-1)

It's difficult to know what you're going to get on a given week from Lee due to his volatility, but he's prone to big weeks even when the form isn't the best. He has a top-5 this fall and finished T5 here in 2019.

The RSM Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Brian Harman (-115) over Denny McCarthy

Harman is another local resident and that's shown in his results as he has two top-5s here, including a shared-runner up two years ago. The only concern is that he hasn't played on Tour since the playoffs, but neither has McCarthy, and the course fit is right up Harman's alley. McCarthy isn't that accurate for a short hitter and Harman is much better from 100-150 yards, giving him the edge.

Matt Wallace (-105) over Si Woo Kim

Wallace makes his return stateside after playing a full fall schedule on the DP World Tour (has his Tour card locked up from winning last year), where he won and had five top-15s across nine starts. Kim's results at this event don't instill much confidence as he had a T71 last year and three missed cuts prior to that. I'll take Wallace as the slight underdog.

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