This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
ZOZO Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour travels across the globe for this week's ZOZO Championship in the Greater Tokyo Area at Narashino Country Club. The co-sanctioned event alongside the Japan Golf Tour has a limited field of 78 players with no cut and includes 17 golfers from Japan. The field has more star power than we're accustomed to in the fall as well, with Xander Schauffele headlining as the tournament favorite at 9-2 odds. Last year, Collin Morikawa (12-1 odds) cruised to a six-shot victory over Beau Hossler and Eric Cole for his sixth Tour victory.
A par-70 at just under 7,100 yards, Narashino has five par-3s and three par-5s and has been a challenging venue as evidenced by Morikawa being the lone player to reach double digit under par last year. Off the tee, players are faced with tree-lined fairways and that's certainly going to put an emphasis on driving the ball well. The par-4s are a mixture of short and long holes with four of them playing 405 yards or less and five of them playing 485 yards or longer, so expect a lot of wedges and mid-iron approaches. We don't have any strokes gained data to draw from, unfortunately, but seeing past winners like Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama and Tiger Woods, I think it's safe to say that quality ball strikers tend to flourish here. I'll also be looking at players that rank well in bogey avoidance due to the difficulty of the course.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday
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Narashino Ninjas
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Narashino Country Club (minimum two appearances).
- Beau Hossler: 68.0
- Sungjae Im: 68.2
- Hideki Matsuyama: 68.2
- Collin Morikawa: 68.3
- Sahith Theegala: 68.4
Hossler tops the list coming off his runner-up finish here last year after posting a T16 in his debut in 2022, and he's impressive managed to avoid shooting over par in any of his eight rounds at the challenging venue. He's been in good form this fall, losing in a playoff at the Sanderson and has posted a top-25 in all three of his events. Hossler comes in this week at 35-1 odds and draws worthy consideration for your betting cards. Another player that's shown form here is Theegala with his results of T5 and T19 in his two appearances. He's found himself near the top of leaderboards often in 2024 with a whopping nine top-10s. This will likely be his last chance at picking up a Tour victory for a second year in a row, and he comes in as the fifth choice on the board at 18-1 odds.
Driving Darlings
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.
- Hideki Matsuyama: 0.70
- Max Greyserman: 0.58
- Xander Schauffele: 0.57
- Sahith Theegala: 0.51
- Chandler Phillips: 0.44
Driving play should be a key factor this week and Matsuyama is one of two players to appear on both lists, having won the event in 2021 as well as having a runner-up result in the inaugural event in 2019. You have to go all the way back to May to find a tournament that he lost strokes off the tee, so it's no wonder he's one of only three players with single digit odds (15-2). Right behind him on the list we find Greyserman, and the Tour rookie will be making his debut at Narashino CC. He hasn't played since the end of the playoffs after qualifying for the BMW Championship to lock himself into all of next year's signature events. With a pair of runner-up finishes to close the regular season, he's a longshot to keep an eye on at 55-1 odds.
ZOZO Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Justin Thomas (20-1)
Thomas is no stranger to winning no cut events in this part of the world having won a pair of events in Malaysia and Korea. I expect to see a highly motivated Thomas after he missed his first team event last month.
Min Woo Lee (28-1)
Lee played an Asian Tour event a couple weeks ago so he won't have to deal with the jet lag that some of the field will be dealing with. The long hitting Lee (seventh in driving distance, fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee) finished T6 in his debut here last year.
Max Homa (45-1)
I'll take the value odds on Homa, who looked like a much different player at the Presidents Cup where he won his singles match and looked excellent with his iron play during foursomes. A little break in the action worked well for J.T. Poston last week, and I'm thinking it may do the same for Homa.
ZOZO Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Will Zalatoris
Top-5 Finish: 11-2
Zalatoris closed the playoffs in good form with back-to-back top-15s and a couple months off should mean that he's 100 percent. If we're looking for quality ball strikers here, Zalatoris is one of the first names that comes to mind.
Davis Riley
Top-10 Finish: 9-1
This wager isn't for the faint of heart as Riley struggled during the summer after winning at Colonial in May. Nevertheless, he's still one of the best putters in the field and gained strokes on approach last week for the first time in seven tournaments.
Gary Woodland
Top-5 Finish: 10-1
Woodland seems to have found his form all of a sudden, posting results of T16-T9 over his last two starts for his two best finishes all year. He's finished in the top-5 in SG: Approach in both tournaments, so I'll bet on him to keep the momentum going.
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