DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: U.S. Open Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

U.S. OPEN

Purse: $17.5M
Winner's Share: $3.15M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Los Angeles 
Course: Los Angeles Country Club
Yardage: 7,421
Par: 70
2022 champion: Matt Fitzpatrick (The Country Club)

Tournament Preview

What will golf do for an encore after the most turbulent week in the history of the sport? Oh, how about a major championship bringing all the PGA Tour and LIV Golf combatants together in one place?

The U.S. Open heads to Los Angeles for the first time in 75 years, and Hollywood scriptwriters would be hard-pressed to match the drama that erupted across the golf world and beyond when the stunning news of a partnership between the PGA Tour and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), which runs LIV Golf, broke last Tuesday morning. We'll save our thoughts on that for another day -- not that there's much new to report since that bombshell dropped like a ton of bricks the day after final Open qualifying concluded.

The 123rd U.S. Open didn't really need any more juice after Brooks Koepka got LIV on the major scoreboard by winning the PGA Championship last month, but there's a lot more juice now. Koepka will shoot for his third Open title and sixth career major, though the other three front-runners for the national championship -- Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and emerging Viktor Hovland -- will have a lot to say about it.

Virtually all the top golfers in the world will be on hand again, and we likely will continue to see a softening of the acrimony between players on the two tours, just like emotions cooled in the time from the Masters to the PGA Championship.

But there is one new and important player on the scene for the first time this week and will have a lot to say about who wins -- the North course at Los Angeles Country Club.

It's remarkable that this George Thomas gem has never played host to a major before, or even a PGA Tour event in more than 80 years. Thomas also designed Riviera, which played host to the previous U.S. Open in Los Angeles in 1948 and which the golfers are quite familiar with from the annual Genesis Invitational. But not only have most of them never played LACC in competition, it is far different from Riviera. In fact, LACC is not a traditional U.S. Open track. Oh, it's plenty long, there will be rough and the winning score should be in the single digits, but there are some wide fairways -- and some wider fairways. LACC is definitely a second-shot golf course, as well as a third and a fourth, and if the golfers aren't careful, a fifth, sixth and even seventh.

Thomas put his footprint on LACC in the late 1920s. More than 80 years later in 2010, noted architect Gil Hanse, along with design partner Jim Wagner and consultant/Thomas biographer Geoff Shackleford, restored the North course in Thomas' vision. It's a par-70 but with a twist – there are five par-3s and three par-5s.

LACC is on every top 100 golf course list in the United States, often ahead of Riviera.

It does open with one of its few similarities to Riviera -- a gift of a par-5 that is a must-birdie before Thomas tightens the screws with a long par-4 No. 2. Also, much like the famed drivable par-4 10th at Riviera, there's the 330-yard sixth at LACC with a sliver of a green. As Hanse has said, Thomas is the master of the short par-4.

But with wide fairways, different grasses and a barranca traversing through the front nine, don't get caught up in Riviera being a comp course. The North is long, and distance will matter, but often times positioning in the fairway will be more important. Besides, the fairways will be firm and fast, allowing golfers to play the ball on the ground if they want to. The rough will be 3-4 inches, which is not tall for a U.S. Open until you learn that for the first time in an Open since 2005, the rough will be bermudagrass, and that it will be plenty gnarly. There are six very long par-4s of at least 480 yards and four of those are over 500. While the tee shot is more important at Riviera, length matters more at LACC, if that makes sense.

With many undulations and elevation changes, "topography" will be a buzzword this week. If you're on the correct side of some fairways, you'll be able to see the green. On the incorrect side? You could be hitting a blind iron shot into treacherous, speedy, often small bentgrass green complexes running at 13 on the Stimpmeter. There isn't a lot of greenside rough surrounding the undulated putting surfaces, which means there will be run-offs if the golfers don't hit the proper spots. That's why chipping and putting will be vital this week. Really, every facet of the game will be important, every club in the bag will be required.

Continuing through the course, No. 7 is a mammoth 284-yard par-3. Four holes later, there's an even longer par-3, a 290-yarder that could play 300, though it is downhill. And then there's No. 15 at a mere 124 yards, though in the 2017 Walker Cup it played one day at a teensy 78 yards. That's one of the things we should expect -- scorecard yardages changing significantly from day to day. Shackleford believes the 507-yard 13th will be the hardest hole, and next comes the longest hole at 623 yards into the prevailing wind. After the tiny 15th comes a brutish closing trio of par-4s totaling more than 1,500 yards. No. 18 is the shortest of the three at 492 yards, though it's uphill -- another reminder of Riviera. Yes, the final six holes will be a bear.

All that means there could be some real leaderboard swings when the first West Coast U.S. Open in eight years concludes in a potentially riveting prime-time finish on the East Coast on Sunday night.

As with most majors, the pool of potential champions is not deep -- maybe 10, 12, perhaps 15. Sure, there are exceptions. But in constructing your DFS lineups, you'll want to get at least one of those guys in your lineup, if not two. Because the field is so stout, many good golfers have fallen into the $7,000s, and there is even some quality in the $6,000s. But getting 6 for 6 through to the weekend will be harder this week than any other all year. That's because only the top 60 and ties in the 156-man field will make the cut. Depending on your game, you might be able to win something with five golfers going the distance.
 
One of the best parts of a West Coast major is there won't be any weather delays, at least this time of year. The forecast does call for some cooler temperatures than the June norm in LA. It's been a cooler spring with many overcast days, part of the phenomenon known in Southern California as June Gloom. Highs will be only in the 70s and most of the days will be on the cloudy side, though there won't be any rain and the winds are forecast to be largely light.

History at LACC: Scheffler and Collin Morikawa played there in the 2017 Walker Cup. Max Homa and Rahm took part in the 2013 Pac-12 Championships there in 2013, when Homa shot a course-record 61. Patrick Cantlay played two years at UCLA, so he is more familiar with the course than most. Those were all a long time ago, and many golfers paid visits to LACC during the West Coast Swing to try to gain some knowledge.

Honors for Johnny Miller: On the 50th anniversary of Johnny Miller's stunning win at the 1973 U.S. Open, he will receive the USGA's highest honor, the Bob Jones Award, which recognizes character, respect and sportsmanship in golf. Miller, now 76, is known to younger fans only as an NBC broadcaster. But in 1973 at mighty Oakmont, he shot a record-setting final-round 63 in which he hit every green in regulation and came from six shots back for the first of his two career majors. Miller won 25 PGA Tour titles and is in the World Golf Hall of Fame.

Key Stats to Winning at Los Angeles Country Club

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 500+ yards
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick (The Country Club)
2021 - Jon Rahm (Torrey Pines)
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (Winged Foot)
2019 - Gary Woodland (Pebble Beach)
2018 - Brooks Koepka (Shinnecock)
2017 - Brooks Koepka (Erin Hills)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Oakmont)
2015 - Jordan Spieth (Chambers Bay)
2014 - Martin Kaymer (Pinehurst No. 2)
2013 - Justin Rose (Merion)

Champion's Profile

As you look at the 10 most recent champions above, we find some conservative players. No, not DeChambeau, who was able to bomb and gouge and overpower Winged Foot three years ago. We are looking at conservative players, those who will be patient and pick their spots on a course that doesn't offer many spots to pick. Getting the ball in the right place in the fairway is more important than hitting it far. Closer to the hole, greens will be missed, bringing scrambling into play. A golfer doesn't have to be great in every discipline, but being especially weak in one area might be a red flag. As much as anything, keeping your wits about you are paramount. Interestingly, going back to 2009, 11 of the 14 U.S. Open champions won their first major. The over/under on the winning score set by golfodds.com was 271.5 --  8.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Scottie Scheffler - $11,400 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +700)
Scheffler's tee-to-green has been historically great of late. For instance, at the Memorial he gained more than 20 strokes on the field. Unfortunately for him, he also lost almost nine on the greens. He has finished top-12 in the past 16 tournaments he's played going back to the fall but has won only two. If only he had been putting less bad -- not even good, just less bad -- he'd have won more. He can putt less bad this week and win his second major. In Scheffler's last nine major starts, he has a win, two runners-up and seven top-10s.

Brooks Koepka - $10,800 (+1100) 
There's not much that needs to be said: Koepka was runner-up at the Masters and then won the PGA Championship. If he wins a third U.S. Open and a sixth career major, he will enter a golf stratosphere not many have entered.

Viktor Hovland - $10,000 (+1800) 
Hovland's Memorial win two weeks ago was the culmination of his progression as a player over the past year. And it's all because of the seismic improvement in his short game and putting -- the rest of his game was already elite. In his past three majors, Hovland has finished T4 at the Open Championship, T7 at the Masters and co-runner-up at the PGA Championship. His first major win is coming, and soon.

Tier 2 Values 

Jordan Spieth - $9,200 (+2800) 
We've often said that Spieth's best chances to win majors are at the Masters and Open Championship. LACC, with its wider fairways, gives Spieth a better shot than most U.S. Open weeks. He hits the ball farther than we think -- he was ranked 57th on Tour in driving distance -- and if he can get his short game and putting back to Spiethian standards, he could really contend this week.

Cameron Smith - $9,000 (+2500) 
Smith has not so much as finished in the top-35 in his past five U.S. Opens. That doesn't scare us. The fairways will be wider this week than in traditional U.S. Open setups, minimizing the biggest weakness in Smith's game and allowing his short-game wizardry to become even more valuable. He had not been especially good at the PGA Championship either before notching his first top-10 there last month.

Hideki Matsuyama - $8,600 (+4000)  
Matsuyama finished fourth at last year's U.S. Open. He was runner-up in 2017 and has seven top-25s in 10 starts. We all know how good of a ball-striker, and how bad of a putter, Matsuyama is. In between, it's not as widely known how good of a scrambler he is. He was ranked eighth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and seventh in scrambling.

Tier 3 Values 

Justin Rose - $7,700 (+4000) 
The 2013 Open winner at Merion, Rose has turned back the clock this year. He won at Pebble Beach, then tied for sixth at THE PLAYERS, for 16th at the Masters and for ninth at the PGA. He's had five top-25s in row, including solo eighth last week a the Canadian Open. Rose was ranked 20th on Tour in SG: Approach, 46th in Around-the-Green and 31st in Putting. That's a great mix for LACC. Not surprisingly, Rose ranks 13th in our model.

Bryson DeChambeau - $7,600 (+4000) 
We have DeChambeau ranked top-10 in the RotoWire U.S. Open Value Meter. We were stunned to see him way down here at $7,600. One of us could be very wrong. The bomb-and-gouge approach DeChambeau won at Winged Foot with three years ago won't fly this week. He will need to be good in multiple areas. He tied for fourth at the PGA Championship, where his chipping was the weakest part of his game. That will need to improve for him to contend again.

Rickie Fowler - $7,500 (+5000)
Fowler was 22nd in the FedExCup Standings and 44th in the world rankings. He was ranked top-50 in every Strokes Gained category but Off-the-Tee. He has six top-10s this season. He ranks seventh in our model, which covers the past 24 rounds. The numbers are real and they don't lie -- Fowler is back. How far back? We don't know that yet. But Fowler is playing the best he has since at least the last time he played in the U.S. Open, which was in 2020.

Patrick Reed - $7,500 (+7500) 
It doesn't seem to matter what kind of major course it is, Reed comes to play. He was T4 at the Masters and T18 at the PGA Championship. He has only one top-10 at an Open, but four other top-20s. With the need for sharpness around the greens this week, we love Reed's chances to do that again, if not more.

Si Woo Kim - $7,300 (+6500) 
On one hand, Kim has been terrible in U.S. Opens throughout his career. On the other, he was at the highest world ranking of his life (30th) and has two top-5s in his past four starts. Kim ranks 16th in our model, which covers the past 24 rounds. For Kim, success this week likely will come down to putting.

Denny McCarthy - $7,200 (+11000) 
There's a reason McCarthy has 10 top-25s in 22 starts this season and stood at a career-high 35th in the world rankings after finishing runner-up at the Memorial: He's grown from being just a great putter to a more well-rounded golfer. He still lacks distance, which is a concern for this week, but his iron player is so much better. And when things get tough at LACC, and it will for everyone, it's good to know McCarthy was still ranked fourth on Tour in SG: Putting. He landed at No. 19 in our model.

Long-Shot Values

Patrick Rodgers - $6,900 (+25000) 
It's gone under the radar, but after tying for 30th at the Memorial two weeks ago, Rodgers reached the highest world ranking of his decade-long career. He's only 91st, but it still means he's playing better than he ever had. He's made six of his past seven cuts, with two top-10s, another top-20 and a tie for 29th at the PGA Championship. Rodgers has played in four U.S. Opens and made every cut, tying for 31st each of the past two years. In our model, he ranked 29th.

Adam Hadwin - $6,900 (+25000) 
Hadwin has proved to be good at reaching the weekend in majors. He's made seven of his past eight major cuts and three straight at the U.S. Open, highlighted by a tie for seventh last year. Hadwin landed at No. 52 in our model -- we'll take it. He is better than average and ranked in the top-100 on Tour in every strokes gained category, with putting being his best discipline. He is coming off a tie for 12th at home in the Canadian Open.

Kurt Kitayama - $6,800 (+18000) 
No. 20 in the world and $6,800 on the DK board? We get it. Kitayama has tremendous upside, such as T4 at the PGA Championship, but plenty of downside, such as missing four of his past six cuts. To find someone this accomplished in the $6,000s is too good to pass up. The worst part of Kitayama's game is accuracy off the tee. The fairways are wide at LACC. So, that might help him -- as long as he is still on the correct side in the fairway. Kitayama is only 55th in our model -- still inside the cut line -- in large part because of subpar SG: Off-the-Tee numbers.

Sam Bennett - $6,500 (+80000) 
The first goal down here is to make the cut and then hope for the best on the weekend. Bennett, the 2022 U.S. Amateur champion is proving quite good at making cuts, and then some. He made the cut at last year's U.S. Open. He made the cut at the Masters in April -- and T16 is a lot more than making the cut. Then he did it again the past two weeks at the Memorial and Canadian Open, where he tied for 20th. Most importantly, the 23-year-old Texas A&M alum is showing he can handle the pressure of big-time tournaments at a very young age.

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