John Deere Classic Preview: The Midwest Swing Finale

The PGA Tour heads south from Minnesota this week, to the fine state of Illinois, for what can only be described now as the "futures" event on the PGA Tour. The John Deere Classic has never had a strong field, but one thing it often has is a good crop of young players. With it's placement on the schedule right in front of the Open Championship, the John Deere is often passed over by many of the top pros, which leaves room for the young guys to get into the field. The John Deere has seen the likes of Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau breakthrough in recent years and with Matthew Wolff picking up his first win last week, many think it will be Viktor Hovland or Collin Morikawa picking up their first win this week. As you'll see below, the odds-makers are betting on a strong showing from the "young guns" this week, much like the 3M last week. One potential issue with that theory though, is course history, which, like all trends, is back in fashion this week.      
This Week: The John Deere Classic – TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Ill. 

Last Year: Michael Kim shot a final-round 66 on his way to an eight-stroke victory over three players, including Joel Dahmen.  

FAVORITES

Viktor Hovland (18-1) 

The odds for this week's event are unlike anything I have ever seen. The odds-makers are banking that the public will be all over the young players in the field this week, which is just not normal for this sport. The field is thin sure, but to install a guy who has yet to win as the favorite, with only a handful of starts under his belt is unheard of. With that said, Hovland has as good a chance to win as anyone in the field, but the price doesn't offer much value.     

Collin Morikawa (20-1)   

While I liked what I saw from Morikawa last week, I just can't get behind his status as second-favorite this week. Yes, he had a great week and an incredible back-nine on Sunday, but he doesn't exactly have a long track record of playing well in different spots. Neither does Hovland, but Hovland has shown well at the Masters and the U.S. Open, and he's captured the U.S. Amateur. I'm just not sure if Morikawa really took to the TPC Twin Cities, or if he's just that good. I'm still a little skeptical, but we'll find out this week.     

Joaquin Niemann (20-1) 

Now this makes sense to me. Niemann was like the two guys listed above him about 12 months ago, but he's since gained a lot of valuable experience on the PGA Tour. He struggled quite a bit to start the year, but he's posted some good numbers over the past month. He also had four rounds under his belt here, which resulted in a T23 last year.          

MID-TIER GOLFERS 
                        
Sungjae Im (20-1) 

Im was on the short list last week and while he didn't contend, he did end up with a T15. Im has played well over the past couple months, but he's had trouble finding that extra gear. Though he has more experience than the favorites this week, he does not have any experience on this course. That's unfortunate, as if he had, he might be the favorite this week. As it is, he should still contend this week.         

Matthew Wolff (25-1) 

Life-changing win? Yes. Hangover? Maybe not. In years past, it was easy to write-off anyone who had just won their first PGA Tour event, but that's not necessarily the case anymore with these brash young bucks. The style with which Wolff won last week leads me to believe that he won't settle for just the one win this season, he'll want more and what better place to get one than the "Deere".     

Zach Johnson (25-1) 

Johnson has had a terrible season by his standards, but you can never write him off here. Though he has only won this event once, he's always in the mix. Johnson has finished outside the top-25 just one time in his past 10 starts here. The only worry of course is that his game is so far off right now that even the TPC Deere Run can't fix it. A win might be too much to ask this week, but a top-10 is certainly in range.           

LONGSHOTS

Brian Harman (25-1)  

Harman might have the best combination of recent form and track record of anyone in the field this week. Harman has posted top-10s in two of his past three starts on the PGA Tour and he's a former champion here. Harman won this event in 2014 and he has a total of four top-25s in six starts at this event.       

Scott Brown (60-1)  

Brown's season has been entirely unspectacular, but he put together four solid rounds at the 3M and he's got a decent track record at this event. In seven starts here, Brown has posted six top-25s, two of which were top-10s. He's not the most exciting pick this week, but he should again finish inside the top-25, with a top-10 not out of the question.    

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Viktor Hovland - He's the odds-on favorite this week, he's been gaining momentum and many feel it's his turn this week after Wolff's win last week. I definitely can't argue with this pick as there won't be many more chances to use Hovland this season unless he wins and makes his way into the FedEx playoffs.             

Moderately Owned Pick: Zach Johnson - The fact that everyone won't have Johnson this week tells you how far his game has fallen-off, but that doesn't mean we should forget about him. It's not uncommon to see a guy struggle, only to return to a familiar site and find his game. The problem however, is that there are a lot of young and talented players in the field this week and it might take more to win this year than in years past.         

Lightly Owned Pick: Brian Harman - I have a feeling the young guys are going to be heavily-owned this week, which leaves Harman available as someone who can make up ground on the competition this week. Harman has not played his best golf this season, but he looks to be getting closer each week. A return to a site where he's won, could be what gets him back into the winner's circle.                 

Buyer Beware: Charles Howell III - Howell is not a bad option this week, but if you hoping for a win, or a really high finish, then he's probably not your guy. While he's made the cut in 10 of 11 starts here, he's only finished inside the top-10 twice. He has a bunch of top-25s, but he rarely seriously contends here.                 

Last Week: Joaquin Niemann (T23) - $49,105; Season - $6,658,702  

This Week: Brian Harman - It pains me to pass on all the young players this week, but something tells me that this week will not look like last week and that's mainly due to many in the field with course experience. Harman has the experience and the form, which puts him slightly ahead of Hovland and Wolff in my book.                                            

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Brian Harman ($11,000)/Zach Johnson ($10,300)/Richy Werenski ($7,800) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last week: Rory Sabbatini - (MC); Streak - 0 

This Week: Viktor Hovland - Hovland has yet to miss a cut since turning pro and after last week's performance, I can't imagine him missing the cut this week. He has no history on this course, but that's been the case in most of his starts this season. With no concern of a hangover, like Wolff, Hovland appears to be one of the safest picks on the board this week.