This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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2024 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Decisions, decisions
I sat down with Smylie Kaufman for his podcast earlier this week. Those who watched the Shriners heard his voice covering the event. We discussed the weather in Vegas and number of other things. Heading into TPC Summerlin, we were all focused on the weather, wind, and wave advantage. A substantial delay on Friday morning may have altered the results slightly, but in the end those who played the PM/AM wave had a stroke average approximately three worse than the opposite tee times. Golf betting research can be very impactful, and this example is just another reason why I love to dive deep into each event. These edges are real, and they will positively impact the bottom line.
For the fifth FedExCup Fall event we head across the ocean to Japan for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. Probably the premiere fall event, we have four players ranked top-15 in the world competing for $8.5 million. A set field of 78 players tee it up for 72-holes. First-places earns $1.53 million, a Masters invite, the PGA, and a two-year exemption on TOUR. A pretty good haul considering 14 players in the field are from the JGTO. Forty-eight of the remaining 64 PGA TOUR players were in Vegas for the Shriners. A majority of the field has been playing and that will help them try to stop the big three favorites in Japan.
2024 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Fall's signature
If the fall had a signature event, this would probably be it. ZOZO has the largest purse and no cut for those who earn an invite. A one-week trip to Japan is costly, but the PGA TOUR doesn't return until November 7. So, enjoy a couple extra days and see the sights. With no cut, those in the field have a nice advantage receiving FedExCup points while another 70+ PGA TOUR players have to watch from home. All four previous Asian editions of the ZOZO have been played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. The par-70 layout has one (or should I say two) very unique feature. Each hole at the 36-hole facility has two greens. Due to the changing climate in Japan, each green has a different grass allowing the members to play 12 months of the year.
The weather this week looks wet. Rain is predicted for all four rounds with Friday and Saturday being the wettest. The wind will also blow in the low teens and temperatures will top out in the low 70s. Funny thing is, Tokyo sits on the northern latitude of 35 degrees. That's the equivalent of Los Angeles on the west coast. I bet the guys would love southern California right now over cool damp Chiba, Japan. What a difference half the world makes!
The golf course is a really good test. The average winning score of the first four editions in Tokyo is 16 under par. AGNCC's fairways are tree lined and host 73 bunkers. The terrain moves and players will walk over five miles each round and climb 232 feet in elevation. The scorecard stretches 7,079 yards. Relatively short by PGA TOUR standards, there is a secret. One reason for the length is an extra par 3. AGNCC has five par 3s. An approach players dream, five tee shots each day are played from a perfect lie. The par 4s also tell an interesting tale. Not quite as unique as the double green complexes, but they have a sense of duality. Five par-4s measure under 425 yards and five extend over 480!
Twelve holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent and six carry a bogey rate over that same value. AGNCC is a solid test. Ball strikers do well here. Look at the winners: Hideki Matusyama, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley AND Tiger. Woods was 19 under par the year he won. Adding to the target practice, five holes have water in play and the field driving accuracy is nearly 10 percent under the PGA TOUR average. We are building a card of capable T2G stars. AGNCC requires you to keep the ball in play. Last year, the scoring average was 0.8 under par. I'm not sure about the travel fit, but this course is a great venue for elite golf. It requires the field to hit solid shots off the tee and with their irons. There are not many holes off and even though you won't get sent home on Friday, if you make mistakes in the opening 36 it will seem like you aren't there on the leaderboard for the weekend.
2024 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Keep it in play
I know J.T. Poston just strolled into Vegas after two months off and won the Shriners. Morikawa played one event last fall after the Ryder Cup and won the ZOZO. Great players can just show up and perform. Truth be told, I believe Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Matsuyama will be in this event on Sunday morning. That being said, I'm building an outright card around players with much longer odds and recent starts. I see a couple of players who have been competing in the past few weeks and playing well. I know eight players from the Presidents Cup are entered, but I'm weighting the past few weeks even more.
I'm well aware Schauffele can steamroll this field like Scottie has done all year and win with very short odds. We just aren't going down that road. There are a couple guys who have proven they can play at an elite level and compete with the Collins of the TOUR. They are going to do that by hitting solid shots. Strokes gained ball striking is the combination of strokes gained off the tee and approach. A pure flusher's favorite analytic, it will separate the men from the boys this week in Japan. AGNCC has well defined tree lined fairways over rolling terrain. All 13 tee shots bend slightly or dogleg sharply. You have to fit the ball in play OTT.
A well-rounded approach game is required. The par 3s call for five shots between 150-200 yards. The par 4s features mid and scoring irons on approach. This is a great test of control and length. The "pin high" players can really separate here as each hole is a tough target test. One area where you can get a slight break is on the greens. These surfaces have rewarded some very suspect putters. The last three winners are Collin, Keegan, and Hideki. Morikawa lost strokes putting in all three events prior to winning last year. Bradley lost strokes with his flat stick in four of his five previous starts. A player can be an average putter and win here.
Short game and scrambling are important. The consistent ball striking test offers just a couple easy areas to score and many of them require some wedge scrambling. I like players who can pitch the ball well from 20 to 60 yards. Keegan and Hideki are two very, very good scramblers. A quiet characteristic most pundits won't mention, but that's where the scoring takes place here. Measuring strokes gained par 4s pinpoints players, but "how" do they actually score. Off the tee and approach matter, but when you consider three par 5s and four par 4s at 400 yards or less, those seven holes are where I would be focused on scoring.
That's not the only place, but one I am featuring. Shotlink scoring averages tell as much of a story as strokes gained data does. How do the successful players attack the course. Where do they make sub-par scores and how do they do it? I strongly encourage you to carry this scoring mindset into your own golf game. What shots are required to score at your home course? Are their five seven iron shots? If there are, I would add that club into my practice routine. I learned so much from my days as a professional at Isleworth with Tiger Woods. He was the very best for many reasons, but the manner in which he broke down a course and built a practice regimen is one very specific reason why he won so often.
Those lessons I learned first-hand are why we win/contend so much. Most handicappers hate non-Shotlink weeks; I love them. The LPGA barely has any data, and we are successful picking their winners. Build a betting card by studying the scorecard, course, agronomy, and scoring. The keys are there in Japan and we have them to help produce one more winning week.
2024 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Outright Winners
Kurt Kitayama (+3000)
Kitayama is the best ball striker in the field behind Schauffele.
- In his last two starts, he's gained an average of 12 strokes T2G. That's his average this fall!
- In two starts at the ZOZO, Kurt has finished T29, T16.
- The putter gives us headaches, but AGNCC rewards average putters.
- Kitayama has gained positively OTT in eight straight events. Want the ball in play, call Kurt.
Gary Woodland (+8000)
Woodland had his first top-10 finish since returning from brain surgery last week in Vegas.
- Another incredible ball striker, Woodland has gained an average of six strokes T2G in his last five starts.
- Gary gained +3.7 strokes with the putter in Vegas. He's changed his practice routine and incorporated a LAB putter.
- Woodland has a strong course history finishing fifth in 2019.
- Gary will have a long iron advantage in this field OTT and on the 480+ yard 4s.
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