This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
"It's feast or famine for most of the golfers at this event. Either they've figured out Muirfield or they haven't." Words straight from my mouth prior to last week's event, well, words that were typed anyhow and for the second consecutive year, a golfer with little to no success at the Memorial ends up with the trophy. What makes for an interesting story for the casual golf fan, makes for a frustrating week for the fantasy golfer. It's hard enough most weeks to pick a guy or two to succeed even when things play out as they should, but when you have the likes of David Lingmerth and William McGirt besting what is a stellar field each year at Memorial, well it's enough to make you want to throw your hands in the air. This is not meant to be a slight to either Lingmerth or McGirt, it's just a statement on how course history doesn't always play-out like we expect it too. Since the dawn of fantasy golf, there have been two camps of people, one that favors recent history and one that favors course history. For those that favor recent history, the results from the Memorial over the past two years have served to bolster their position, but as we all know, both camps are right and both camps are wrong, it just depends which week it happens to be. This past week, course history had little to no effect on the outcome, but that has no bearing
"It's feast or famine for most of the golfers at this event. Either they've figured out Muirfield or they haven't." Words straight from my mouth prior to last week's event, well, words that were typed anyhow and for the second consecutive year, a golfer with little to no success at the Memorial ends up with the trophy. What makes for an interesting story for the casual golf fan, makes for a frustrating week for the fantasy golfer. It's hard enough most weeks to pick a guy or two to succeed even when things play out as they should, but when you have the likes of David Lingmerth and William McGirt besting what is a stellar field each year at Memorial, well it's enough to make you want to throw your hands in the air. This is not meant to be a slight to either Lingmerth or McGirt, it's just a statement on how course history doesn't always play-out like we expect it too. Since the dawn of fantasy golf, there have been two camps of people, one that favors recent history and one that favors course history. For those that favor recent history, the results from the Memorial over the past two years have served to bolster their position, but as we all know, both camps are right and both camps are wrong, it just depends which week it happens to be. This past week, course history had little to no effect on the outcome, but that has no bearing on the upcoming weeks or months. There are no guarantees in fantasy golf, except that it's never going to be easy.
This week: Fed Ex St. Jude Classic - TPC at Southwind - Germantown, Tenn.
Last Year: Fabian Gomez shot a final-round 66 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Greg Owen.
Players to Consider:
Dustin Johnson
Though he's yet to win this season, DJ is having quite the year. Johnson has yet to miss a cut in 12 starts and he's cracked the top-10 in seven times. Now, about that failing to win thing, it's just a matter of time for DJ after all, this isn't a major, there's really no pressure for a guy like DJ at an event like this.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson is in the midst of a nice bounce-back season, but like DJ, he's yet to find a victory this year. That could easily change this week as well as his track record at this event Mickelson has only played here five times, but three of those starts have come over the past three years, so it's safe to say he's getting comfortable with this course. Mickelson has posted two top-10s in his three most recent starts.
Brooks Koepka
Koepka is quietly having a nice season as he enters the week ranked in the top-30 on the Fed Ex points list. Just like DJ and Phil though, he hasn't found a victory yet this season and like those guys, he has a great chance to win this week as his track record here is pretty solid. Koepka has only two starts here, but he's finished inside the top-20 both times.
Ben Crane
Crane's upside appears to be limited on a weekly basis, but if he's ever to break through and score a top-three or even a win, this could be the spot. Crane won this event in 2014 and he comes in off of two pretty decent starts on the PGA Tour where he's finished in the top-30 each time.
Camilo Villegas
Villegas is in the midst of a rough season, but whether he's playing well or not entering the week, he usually finds a way to play well at this event. In his past six starts at this event, Villegas has missed the top-20 just once and he's managed to crack the top-10 in three of those starts.
Players to Avoid:
Will Wilcox
Wilcox entered the 2015-2016 with high expectations, but at this point in the season, it's safe to say he's failed to live up to those expectations. Wilcox started the season well, but he's struggled mightily since the calendar turned. Wilcox has a solid track record here, so this could be the spot he turns it around, but it's simply not worth the risk.
Greg Owen
Owen finished runner-up here last year, but as has been the case with his entire career, that result is more a case of one hot week as opposed to a particular feel for the course. Owen has struggled for much of this season and although he played well here last year, it would be a surprise to see him contend again this year.
Steven Bowditch
What in the world has happened to Steven Bowditch this season? Entering this week, Bowditch sits at just over $300k in earnings, which wouldn't be all that uncommon -- if he hadn't topped $3 million in earnings last season. Bowditch may figure it out before the end of the season, but it probably won't be this week as he's never really played well here.
Kyle Reifers
Reifers has been on quite a run over the past month, but his momentum will be tested this week as he's returning to an event where he's yet to make a cut. Reifers is actually a good test of course history vs. recent history this week. Which will win? You can guess where my money is.
Francesco Molinari
Molinari entered last week's Memorial as a popular sleeper pick as his only previous start in Dublin, OH ended up in a 3rd place finish, however, Molinari missed the cut. He'll tee it up at the St. Jude for the first time this week, and while he might be perfectly suited for this course, all I have to go on is his play from last week, which as we know, was not good.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Matt Kuchar (T4) - $334,687; Season - $7,027,476
This week: Brooks Koepka - Koepka will likely be a popular pick this week as the field is pretty thin and the big names in front of him have likely been used by most players. With that said, the only reason to fade him is if you have a lot of ground to make up and not much time to do so.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 3107
Rank: 22,822
This Week:
Group A: Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson
Group B: Brooks Koepka, Harris English, Ryan Palmer, Colt Knost
Group C: Ben Crane, Brendan Steele
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Matt Kuchar (T4); Streak - 2
This week: Camilo Villegas - Not exactly a name you think of for a survivor contest, but Villegas is about as safe as it gets at the St. Jude. Villegas has made 10 starts here and he's missed just one cut.
