Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: The American Express

Christiaan Bezuidenhout has a strong record at The American Express, and Cullum Brownbridge recommends taking him in Underdog PGA Drafts this week.
Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: The American Express

The American Express

Purse: $9.2M
Winner's Share: $1.656M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Quinta, Calif.
Courses: Stadium Course at PGA West, plus the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta
Yardage: 7,187 (Stadium)
Par: 72

Previous Winners

2025 - Sepp Straka
2024 - Nick Dunlap 
2023 - Jon Rahm
2022 - Hudson Swafford
2021 - Si Woo Kim
2020 - Andrew Landry
2019 - Adam Long
2018 - Jon Rahm
2017 - Hudson Swafford 
2016 - Jason Dufner

Tournament Preview

Following the cancellation of The Sentry, the 2026 PGA Tour season officially kicked off at the Sony Open at Wai'alae Country Club in Hawaii, which saw Chris Gotterup capture his third victory on the Tour with a two-stroke victory over Ryan Gerard. Patrick Rodgers captured a solo third finish after a strong final round, and Robert MacIntyre's T4 performance was enough for him to move past J.J. Spaun to sixth in the OWGR.

However, there were a few notable omissions from the Sony Open; Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry were at the Dubai Invitational last weekend on the DP Tour (and they'll remain in the region for the Hero Dubai Desert Classic), while Scottie Scheffler opted to wait one week to make his season debut. The field features five players in the top-10 of the OWGR, led of course by Scheffler at No. 1 as he looks to continue his dominant reign at the top of the rankings. Sepp Straka -- ranked 12th in the OWGR -- is also in the field as he looks to become the first player since Johnny Miller in 1974-75 to successfully defend his championship at The American Express. This weekend will also see the return of Will Zalatoris, who will make his first appearance at a PGA Tour event since undergoing back surgery in May.

The American Express is truly like no other tournament on the Tour. The field will rotate between three courses from Thursday to Saturday, followed by a 54-hole cut:

  • Pete Dye Stadium Course: par 72, 7,210 yards (Final round played here)
  • La Quinta Country Club: par 72, 7,060 yards
  • Nicklaus Tournament Course: par 72, 7,147 yards 

Scoring will come fast and furious this weekend; per the PGA Tour website, 26-under has been the average winning total at The American Express over the last seven years. During last year's tournament, Strake was able to use back-to-back eight-under rounds to build a large enough cushion to hold off a final-day surge from Justin Thomas. Birdies will feel like pars on some holes, and expect to see plenty of cards returned with low-60 scores, especially on the La Quinta Country Club and Nicklaus Tournament courses. Players who rank highly on SG: Putting and Approach, Par-5 scoring (eagle opportunities) and birdie average should navigate each course nicely and set themselves up for a shot at surging up the leaderboard on Championship Sunday. 

Underdog Contest Overview

Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other participants and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person lucky enough to get Scheffler with the first overall pick (unless you like to live dangerously), but they'll have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.

Here are my top picks for The American Express this weekend:

First Two Rounds

Sam Burns (2.9 Average Draft Position)

Scheffler will be everyone's first round pick (unless, again, dangerous living), but it's hard to not be disappointed with Burns as your second or third pick. Although he hasn't won a PGA Tour event since 2023, he made the cut in 22 of 25 events in 2025, including six top-10's and three top-5's. Burns led the Tour last year in SG: Putting and finished eighth and 19th in one-putt percentage and birdie average, respectively. He finished T29 at The American Express in 2025, though he finished T6 twice and T11 once in three of the four years prior.

Patrick Cantlay (6.8 ADP)

Cantlay has four top-10 finishes in seven appearances at The American Express, including a solo second in 2021 behind Si Woo Kim and a T5 last year. Cantlay was middle-of-the-pack last year in SG: Putting, but he ranked 15th in both SG: Approach to Green and Tee-to-Green and second in par-4 scoring. He's in the hunt for his first PGA Tour victory since the BMW Championship in 2022.

Harry Hall (8.0 ADP)

Hall was part of the final group at the Sony Open last week, though he settled for a T6 finish after gaining just one stroke during the final round. He wasn't the most accurate off the tee nor produced the best GIR during the 2025 season, but he finished in the top-5 in par-4 and par-3  scoring, birdie average, SG: Putting and one-putt percentage while ranking in the top-20 in par-5 scoring. Hall has made the cut in three of four appearances at The American Express, with his T21 finish last year being his best.

Si Woo Kim (10.9 ADP)

Kim won in 2021 and has made the cut in all but one of his eight appearances at The American Express (he was forced to withdraw following the first round of the 2020 event due to a lingering back injury). Although he ranked near the bottom of the Tour in SG: Putting last year, he finished fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in SG: Around the Green and 20th in driving accuracy. Kim is coming off a T11 finish at the Sony Open despite finishing dead last in the field in putting.

Middle Round Value

Taylor Pendrith (15.3 ADP)

Pendrith put together a strong final round at the Sony Open to rise to a five-way tie for sixth place, finishing the tournament with a field-low five bogeys while finishing third in par-4 scoring, 10th in SG: Around the Green and 21st in SG: Putting. That's a positive sign for the 34-year-old Canadian, who ranked low in those categories last season while finishing 11th in SG: Off the Tee. Pendrith has not made the cut in three appearances at The American Express but last played in the tournament in 2024, so perhaps a one-year gap will be the reset he needs to make it to the weekend for the first time.

Ryan Gerard (18.1 ADP)

Gerard enters this weekend with plenty of momentum after his solo second at the Sony Open, finishing just two strokes behind Gotterup on the leaderboard. Gerard finished last weekend second in SG: Tee to Green and fourth in SG: Approach while ranking in the top-10 in proximity and GIR. This weekend is his second appearance at The American Express, having finished T51 in 2025.

Akshay Bhatia (18.1 ADP)

Bhatia finished the 2025 season strong with four top-15 finishes over the final six tournaments of the season, including a T6 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He ranked near the top of the field last season in SG: Putting and SG: Approach the Green, which helped to mask some of his difficulties off the tee. Like Pendrith, Bhatia has not made the cut at The American Express in three attempts.

Sami Valimaki (24.5 ADP)

You could also go with Daniel Berger at the 4-5 turn here, who is coming off a T6 finish at the Sony Open thanks to a strong final round. Valimaki ended his 2025 Tour season strongly with a victory at The RSM Classic, just two weeks after a T2 finish at the World Wide Technology Championship. He finished 10th and 18th in SG: Putting and SG: Approach the Green, respectively, in 2025.

Late Round Targets

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (31.6 ADP)

Though he didn't make the cut at last year's tournament, Bezuidenhout finished solo second and T11 in 2024 and 2023, respectively, at The American Express. He finished last season in the top-20 in SG: Putting, SG: Around the Green and par-4 scoring.

Jacob Bridgeman (33.3 ADP)

Bridgeman is one of my favorite value picks for this weekend's tournament. He's coming off a T4 finish at the Sony Open following a bogey-free, six-under 64 final round and finished the event with the best putts per GIR while finishing third in birdies made and SG: Putting. It was Bridgeman's fifth top-5 finish since the start of the 2025 Tour season, and he ended last year 21st overall in SG: Putting and 29th in one-putt percentage. He's made the cut in each of his two appearances at The American Express, including a T21 performance in 2025.

Matt McCarty (34.6 ADP)

McCarty limped to a T55 finish at the Sony Open last weekend, but it's hard to ignore his three top-15 finishes over his last four Tour outings in 2024, highlighted by a T3 at the Bank of Utah Championship. He ranked in the top-25 last year in SG: Putting and birdie average.

Denny McCarthy (35.2 ADP)

McCarthy's best outing at The American Express was his T6 in 2022, and he has made the cut in three of his last four appearances at The American Express, though 2023 was his last time at the event. He's coming off a fairly strong 2025 season in which he made the cut in 21 of 23 events with 10 top-25 finishes, including a T2 performance at the Grant Thornton Invitational. McCarthy finished fourth overall in SG: Putting last year.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Cullum is a RotoWire contributor for the NFL, NBA, MLB and Golf. He is irrationally pessimistic about his favorite sports teams.
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