This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Just last week I mentioned that the PGA Tour was becoming a little too predictable on Sunday afternoons and drama was in short supply -- what a difference a week makes. To clarify, my concern with the lack of drama was directly related to Sunday afternoon, the PGA Tour as a whole is about as unpredictable as ever. By the end of the 2014-15 season, there was a clear divide between the top-3 players in the world and the rest of the PGA Tour. Three months into the 2016 calendar season there is no longer a top 3 or even a top 5. There may be something resembling a top 10, but at this point, there's no telling what will transpire the next five months.
At this moment, Adam Scott is the best player in the world, regardless of his World Golf Ranking. Anyone who beats the caliber of fields he's seen the last two weeks is the best player in the world. Here's the funny thing, though -- while he might be odds-on favorite to win the Masters if it were this week, by the time it actually rolls around, in about five weeks, someone else will be peaking and that golfer will be the favorite. It could be Spieth, McIlroy, Day, Scott, Rose, Fowler, Watson or a few others I can't think of now, but five weeks from now, somebody from that top tier will emerge as the favorite. The fact that we have no idea which golfer
Just last week I mentioned that the PGA Tour was becoming a little too predictable on Sunday afternoons and drama was in short supply -- what a difference a week makes. To clarify, my concern with the lack of drama was directly related to Sunday afternoon, the PGA Tour as a whole is about as unpredictable as ever. By the end of the 2014-15 season, there was a clear divide between the top-3 players in the world and the rest of the PGA Tour. Three months into the 2016 calendar season there is no longer a top 3 or even a top 5. There may be something resembling a top 10, but at this point, there's no telling what will transpire the next five months.
At this moment, Adam Scott is the best player in the world, regardless of his World Golf Ranking. Anyone who beats the caliber of fields he's seen the last two weeks is the best player in the world. Here's the funny thing, though -- while he might be odds-on favorite to win the Masters if it were this week, by the time it actually rolls around, in about five weeks, someone else will be peaking and that golfer will be the favorite. It could be Spieth, McIlroy, Day, Scott, Rose, Fowler, Watson or a few others I can't think of now, but five weeks from now, somebody from that top tier will emerge as the favorite. The fact that we have no idea which golfer it will be, is a sign that the PGA Tour has never been more exciting.
Now, if we can just get some more finishes like we had last week, then we'll have it all.
This week: Valspar Championship - Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), Palm Harbor, Fla.
Last Year: Jordan Spieth shot a final-round 69 on his way to a playoff victory over Patrick Reed and Sean O'Hair.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Jordan Spieth
Believe it not, Spieth is a bit of a sneaky play this week. He's obviously not on top of his game at the moment, but as we all know, that can change with one good shot. Spieth has something going for him this week that he hasn't had the previous few weeks -- a solid track record. He's going to snap out of his funk at some point, might as well be this week.
Harris English
English looks to be rounding into form after two top-10s in his last three starts. One of those top-10s came last week against a stellar field at the WGC Cadillac Championship. His history here is solid as well, and it looks like everything is lining up for a good showing this week.
Jason Dufner
There aren't many really appealing picks this week, so a guy like Dufner, who's never had a high-end finish here, looks pretty good. He usually plays well, as evidence by his seven consecutive top-30s here, but again, nothing better than a T10 in 2012.
Danny Willett
Since there aren't many in the field with stellar track records here, I'm going to go with a first-timer in this spot. Willett came oh-so-close last week at the WGC Cadillac Championship, and if he plays anywhere near that level this week, he will probably win.
Luke Donald
Fool me once, and I move you from first to fifth on my list. Fool me twice and you never make the list again. We went down this road a couple weeks ago and Donald let us down. Once again this week he has a great track record at this event, but can he overcome his recent form?
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Carl Pettersson
Just as there aren't many golfers in the field this week with stellar track records, there aren't many with horrible ones either. Perfect example is Pettersson, who won here in 2005, but has done little here since. His form is also poor, so there's no reason to think he'll pull off another unexpected win again.
Boo Weekley
Weekley posted a runner-up finish here in 2013, but other than that showing, he's really struggled at this event. Weekley has missed the cut at this event more often than he's made the cut, with five MCs in nine starts.
Jonas Blixt
Blixt is off to a good start this season, but he might have some trouble keeping that momentum this week. Blixt has made the cut here just once in three starts, and in each of those he's posted a round of 75 prior to the weekend.
Scott Stallings
Stallings got off to a good start at this event in 2011 when he posted a solo third in his first start here, but since that finish, he's failed to even make it to the weekend. Stallings has teed it up four times here since his solo third and has missed the cut by a country mile in his last three starts.
Geoff Ogilvy
Ogilvy's had his moments at this event. He posted a top 10 in 2008 and a top 20 in 2012, but he's off to an awful start this season, and there are no signs that it's about to turn around anytime soon. Since the calendar turned, Ogilvy has played the weekend just once.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Bubba Watson (2) - $1,018,000; Season - $4,623,467
This week: Harris English - It really came down to two players for me this week, English and Dufner. While I like Dufner's consistency, his lack of high-end finishes scared me off. English has both the high-end finishes here and the recent form, so he's the pick.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 1162
Rank: 30,885
This Week:
Group A: Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland
Group B: Harris English, Jason Dufner, Luke Donald, Henrik Stenson
Group C: Danny Willett, Matt Kuchar
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: N/A (n/a); Streak - 9
This week: Jason Dufner - While English is my pick because of his high-end finishes at this event, Dufner has been more consistent and as such, makes a better survivor pick this week.
