Weekly PGA Preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, CA

The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for another edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

I've already mentioned a few times that the start of this PGA Tour season has been a rough one. From self-inflicted wounds to illnesses both on and off the course, to injuries, this tour has had a tough time finding any traction this season...but that ends this week. 

The first signature event of the season is about to tee off and we've got all the big names, with one exception. Add to that, we're at historic Pebble Beach and the weather is supposed to be great, it's setting up for the best week of the season. 

Before you start thinking that I've turned over a new leaf and everything is positive, I should mention that Scottie Scheffler, while back, hasn't played much, if any golf over the past month due to his hand injury, so he may not even be the same guy we're used to seeing. Oh, and the way Ludvig Aberg crashed out after grabbing the 18-hole lead this past week is certainly concerning, not to mention Schauffele and his rib injury, who knows when he'll be back. 

Wow, it's really easy to go down a dark road with the PGA Tour these days. Honestly, the thing the PGA Tour needs, the thing we all as golf fans need is just four good days of golf. That's it, four days, then we see what happens next week and maybe four days turns into eight, which turns into 12 and then THE PLAYERS is right around the corner, and everyone is healthy and playing well. Okay, I see the light and it all starts with four days at Pebble Beach this week. 

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Wyndham Clark shot a final round (3rd round) 60 on his way to one-stroke victory over Ludvig Aberg. 

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (4-1) 

I have to admit, it feels good typing the name "Scheffler" at the top of this list. It's no surprise that Scheffler is the favorite this week, but his 4-1 number is a little surprising only because he hasn't played at all over the past month or so and we don't know how the hand will respond to four straight days of golf. Normally Scheffler carries very little risk, but this week is different because of the hand injury. There's a chance he picks up where he left off and plays like the Scheffler we all know, but there's also a chance that he's not 100% yet and he struggles a bit. That's a lot of risk for someone at 4-1. I'm passing on a win ticket this week until I see if he's 100%.  

Rory McIlroy (11-1)

It's not surprising to see McIlroy as the second favorite but understand that he's in this spot because of his name only. We haven't seen McIlroy on the PGA Tour in a while, so form is a question mark this week and his track record here is not good. He's only played this event twice and he's struggled both times. I don't expect McIlroy to fall flat this week, but I certainly don't expect him to win either. His odds this week only make sense when you factor in the public, which likes to bet on McIlroy.       

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

Morikawa is one name that I haven't even mentioned yet when it comes to the rough start, but he too has already been forced to WD from an event. On the bright side, he did finish runner-up in his only start this season. Hopefully Morikawa is 100% this week as well because if he is, he should have something to say at Pebble Beach. Morikawa has only played this event once, but he did fairly well, posting a T14 this past year. If his form has held over the past month, he could be a factor on Sunday. 

THE NEXT TIER

Ludvig Aberg (18-1)

Aberg was headed towards a victory this past week, but the flu got in his way. Okay, so one good round didn't mean that he was going to win this past week, but an opening 63 when there wasn't a ton of competition in the field meant that Aberg certainly had the inside track to victory...had he been healthy. Since he was really battling it over the weekend at Torrey Pines, I'm going to assume that he should be fine by this Thursday. If that's the case, then he should be in the mix this week as his form when healthy looked pretty good this past week and he posted a runner-up at this event this past year.                       

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

I generally like to go a little deeper into the odds chart to find my "next tier" guys, but this week is a little different with a bunch of golfers under 20-1 and only a handful of guys between 20-1 and 50-1. With that said, Cantlay is just outside the favorites category, but he should be a factor this week. Cantlay has played well over the past six months, but he's failed to grab many high-end finishes. With his consistent play however, it's only a matter of time before he starts winning again. Cantlay's track record at this event since 2021 has been pretty solid with four top-15s, which includes two top-5s in four starts. 

Jason Day (35-1)           

Day disappointed this past week at the Farmers, but I look for him to bounce back this week. Golf is the most difficult sport to predict on a weekly basis and that's because we're dealing with just one individual. There's no team, no opposition, it's all on the shoulders of that one person and if he's off, then he's off and there's no way of knowing when those bad weeks will come. Day looked like a great play at Torrey Pines, but he failed to find that extra gear to get him into the mix. Often times in this game, we'll see a golfer in that scenario come back the following week and perform at his best and that's what I expect this week. 

LONG SHOTS

Jordan Spieth (65-1)     

Spieth's career has been one of many wild swings and currently he's battling it, but he's proven many times in the past that he can pull himself out when it looks like all is lost. This time however it's not just a lack of form we're dealing with, but a return from injury as Spieth had wrist surgery in the off-season. While that seems like a lot to overcome this week, it does explain why he played so poorly down the stretch this past season and if he's anywhere near 100% this week, then he has a chance here of all places, where he has four top-10s since 2017, including a win and two top-3s.  

Tom Hoge (90-1)            

Hoge is not someone I wouldn't normally target at a signature event, but he managed to finish T6 here a year ago against a similar field, so he shouldn't be discounted. Hoge has also won this event in 2022, when it was not a signature event, but still, he managed to win at Pebble Beach, which should count for something, right? His form isn't great, but he did post a top-10 against a stellar field at the Sentry earlier this year.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Collin Morikawa - It's hard to say who will be the most popular pick this week, but Morikawa should be among them. Perhaps Justin Thomas will lead the way, and I can't argue with that pick, but I think Morikawa has more value this week. Again, we have to assume he's 100% this week and he should be as he's coming off an illness not an injury, so if he's good, then he should be a factor. No restrictions on picks either as you can take whoever you want with the signature purse in play.                                           

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Ludvig Aberg - This might be the perfect time to use Aberg as there will be some OAD players avoiding him simply because he was sick this past week, that and the way he finished...because he was sick. I think he'll be fine this week and since he knows how to get around this course, you could be getting him at the perfect time. My only hesitation is that Aberg should be a factor during the majors this season, so if you want to hold off for that purpose, I completely understand.   

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Jason Day - Day was a popular pick at Torrey Pines, which means there are already a lot of OAD teams that can't take him anymore. Couple that with Day's tentative status as a signature-level golfer and I have a feeling that not many will be on him, which makes for a great opportunity to gain some ground on your competition this week. Remember, there's not much to lose in this event as there is no cut, and everyone gets paid.      

Buyer Beware: Scottie Scheffler - This is purely for OAD purposes. I know every OAD player wants to get a win from Scheffler when no one else is on him, but this is not the week. Yes, he's got a better chance of beating a smaller field than he does at beating a major field, but there are still plenty of signature events left on the schedule. I don't like using him on a win ticket this week and I like him even less in the OAD format. There's just no reason to take this big of a chance on him until you see if his hand is ready. He's too big of a chip to use when there are any questions surrounding his health.

This Week: Jason Day - I didn't use him this past week and I'd say that paid off as he finished T32. Another benefit was that many teams in my league did use him, so they can't use him this week. There are better options on paper, but I'm not one of those guys that thinks he needs to use a top-10 player at a signature event. Day looks like a good play at Pebble and I can only assume that not many OAD players will be on him, so I'm going for it. If I were taking a top-10 player this week, I'd probably go with Thomas or Morikawa.                                   

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Collin Morikawa ($11,800)
Middle Range: Jason Day ($10,600)
Lower Range: Eric Cole ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

No cut this week.

Previous Results