Weekly PGA Preview: Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

Vidanta Vallarta
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico

The great thing about signature events is that even when certain things fall through, there's always a chance that other you'll be pleasantly surprised. Case in point this past weekend when it looked like we could have a Rory-Scheffler showdown on Sunday, only to see both golfers play terribly on Saturday and completely ruin all of our plans. While Scheffler made a mad dash towards the top on Sunday, McIlroy just never showed up on the weekend, which normally might have ruined the whole thing, but in came Ludvig Åberg to save the day.

We've been waiting for Åberg to really turn it up for a couple years now and while he's been great during that time, there's always been a sense that he's had more in his bag. Well, buckle up ladies and gentlemen because I think the time has come.

Åberg was ready to start taking over the PGA Tour a month ago, but was held back by an illness, but this past week, the rest of the players weren't so lucky. No, he didn't annihilate the field, but it was a pretty strong field and getting the best of Scottie Scheffler isn't something many can claim they've done.

Does the win this past week mean that he's about to go "Scheffler" on the tour? No, of course not, for no other reason than Scheffler is still on the tour, but I do believe that by the end of the season, perhaps even the middle of the season, there will be a new  shooter in the top tier where Scheffler, McIlroy and Xander Schauffele currently reside and yes, that means that Åberg will have done some damage during at least one major this season, if not more.

Okay, time to move onto this week and yes, on paper, this one doesn't look so hot, well, figuratively speaking that is, but you never know how a Sunday on the PGA Tour is going to shape up. Hopefully we'll get some more drama this week.

LAST YEAR

Jake Knapp shot a final round 71 on his way to two-stroke victory over Sami Valimaki.

FAVORITES

Akshay Bhatia (14-1) 

It's always a little jarring to go from Scheffler at less than 5-1 to anyone else as the favorite, and that's especially true this week as there really aren't any big names in the field, so we're left with a good, but not great player as the favorite. Bhatia is the favorite for a few reasons. First, as I mentioned, there aren't any big names in the field, but Bhatia might come the closest. He also fared well here in his only previous start, a T4 in 2023. Lastly, he's coming off a top-10 at the Genesis, which of course had a pretty strong field. Bhatia has wins in his past two seasons on the PGA Tour and this might be his best chance to pick up a win this year.  

Rasmus Hojgaard (18-1)

While there aren't any big names in the field this week, Hojgaard is certainly one that has the potential to be a big name down the road. For now he's stuck in that zone that a lot of golfers find themselves in and that's one of potential. Hojgaard has flashed that potential a bit this season, but he's yet to put it all together. Case in point, Hojgaard has started well in two of his past three starts on the PGA Tour, but he's run out of gas in each, closing with rounds in the 70s each time. He also failed to make the cut this past week at the Genesis Invitational. While we'd like to see him close out and fair better against strong fields, he has shown enough to make a play on him against a weaker field like we have this week.

Patrick Rodgers (22-1)

This is always an interesting spot for a PGA Tour golfer. The week after said golfer has a 54-hole lead, in position to get his first PGA Tour win, but he failed to convert. No one is blaming Rodgers for failing to beat the likes of Åberg and Scheffler, but he's got to be kicking himself for not playing better on Sunday. With that said, his form is obviously solid right now and his track record here is among the best in the field, so what it really comes down to is can he put this past week behind him? I think he can and if he happens to hold the 54-hole lead again, I would expect a different result on Sunday. 

THE NEXT TIER

Stephan Jaeger (25-1)

Before I get into the next batch of players, keep in mind that the field is about as weak as we'll see for the main PGA Tour event this season, in other words, we need to adjust expectations. For example, Ludvig Åberg was 25-1 this past week and now we get the likes of Stephan Jaeger, who, don't get me wrong, is turning into a solid player, but he's obviously not at the level of Åberg. Anyhow, as for Jaeger, his track record here is solid, with three top-20s in three starts, including a T3 this past year and while his form isn't great coming in, he's just over a month removed from a T3 at the Sentry against a pretty strong field.                       

Michael Kim (25-1)

To this point in his career, Kim is probably best known as the guy who often has some great insight on Twitter, er, ah X I guess we'll call it, but lately he's been letting his clubs do the talking. Kim posted a runner-up at the WM Phoenix Open a couple weeks back, which he parlayed into a start at the Genesis this past week and he didn't disappoint there either, finishing in the top-15. He's definitely playing some of the best golf of his life right now, which is why we can overlook his track record here, which consists of a MC and a T30.  

Aaron Rai (33-1)            

For those that are familiar with horse racing terms, this is a classic drop in class this week. Rai is not off to a great start this season, but three of his four starts have come against strong fields, so perhaps this is the break he needs in that pattern. Then again, when he played against a weaker field at the Farmers, he missed the cut, but I'm not going to let that spoil the narrative here. Rai has progressively improved over his first three seasons on the PGA Tour, to the point that he's taking part in the signature events now. Perhaps the weaker field this week will give Rai some room to find his game.                       

LONG SHOTS

Greyson Sigg (60-1)      

There are going to be major holes in any resume of a longshot this week, so outside of Lower maybe, there isn't anyone that looks like he's got much going for him. Sigg does at least have a fairly strong track record here, which consists of two top-20s in three starts. Yeah, I know, it's not much, but we are dealing with longshots now, so you aren't going to find anyone with a strong track record a solid form down here. Sigg has been wildly inconsistent in his first three years on the PGA Tour, but he's made the cut in three of four starts this season and he posted a top-10 two starts back at the Farmers.

Justin Lower (70-1)       

Okay, we know what we're getting down here, right? Longshots during a normal week are usually quite the stretch, but during a week like this, we are usually dipping really deep into the barrel. Lower however isn't quite the reach however as he showed some potential this past fall. He hasn't really backed that up with a strong start to 2025, unfortunately. Now, with that said, he did post a 3rd-place finish at the American Express a month ago, so we can see that the potential is there. Lower also posted a T3 at this event this past year, so we know he is capable of going low here.   

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Akshay Bhatia – Bhatia is going to be extremely popular this week for two reasons. The first, and most important is that he looks like the best play. The second is that with a field this weak, there will be a some OAD players that simply don't want to put in the time to find a good play and will go with the favorite, knowing that they won't be using Bhatia later in the season.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Patrick Rodgers – I debated putting Hojgaard here, but I think he'll be nearly as popular as Bhatia this week, which would exclude him from being a "moderately chosen" pick. Rodgers caught a lot of attention a week ago, but he's still not a known quantity or better yet, not a trusted entity in the OAD community quite yet, so while I think some OAD players will give him a chance this week, enough won't, which makes him an intriguing option. His track record here is solid, however, so he might be a little more popular than I first thought. 

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Justin Lower – I'm not quite sure how the things will play out as I'd expect concentrated ownership around Bhatia and Hojgaard, but we could see it spread out a bit more, which might bring guys like Kim into the picture more. With that in mind, I think you'll have to go a bit lower (pardon the pun) down the list to find a golfer that could get some separation from the pack. Lower should be that guy as at 50-1, I can't imagine many OAD players will be looking his way. 

Buyer Beware: Honestly, there's no one to beware of this week. No one meets the standard. Perhaps I could have placed the favorites here, but there's really nothing to lose by taking anyone this week as unless Bhatia or Hojgaard go on huge runs, their value down the road is minimal. Maybe Bhatia fits the bill more because he's in the signature events, but it's not like you are going to use him in a signature event.  

This Week: Michael Kim – Not going to lie, I'm still trying to recover from essentially throwing away my McIlroy chip this past week. With that said, I haven't shifted to desperation mode yet as with the signature events, there's always time to catch up. Well, not always time, but you get the picture. Even a $4 million deficit at this point can be made up in just one week, so if you're like me and feeling a little down about your start, don't give up as a big week at a signature event gets you right back in the mix. As for this week, I'm going with my gut and taking Kim, who is on a roll right now. 

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Michael Kim ($11,100)
Middle Range: Justin Lower ($9,900)
Lower Range: Ben Kohles ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Patrick Rodgers – It's tough to find a solid pick at these events because most of the golfers in the field are wildly unpredictable. While that might be true for most, Rodgers has been very consistent at this event and his form is solid coming into the week. Rodgers has three top-10s here in three starts and the only thing holding him back this week is a potential letdown from coming close to winning at the Genesis.              

Previous Results