WGC-Dell Match Play Preview: DJ Checks All the Boxes

It's March and it's only appropriate to make any and all analogies basketball related. With that in mind, I'll do my best to describe Tiger Woods' tee shot on the 16th hole on Sunday. Imagine if you will that your team – the team you followed as a child, the team for which you rooted for as you attended that school, the team you root for as an alum – was up, say, 22 points in the second half and it blew the lead, only to take back the lead with .3 seconds on the clock. Where once devastation lay after blowing that lead, now there's excitement; after all, they've got this.

You know what happens next. A miraculous shot goes through the net and the air is completely sucked out of the room. That's what it felt like when Tiger hooked his drive out of bounds on the 16th hole. No, he never had a huge lead and was never in control of the tournament on Sunday, but that same feeling, the feeling of being kicked in the midsection and temporarily losing the ability to breathe, that's what that drive had in common with a terrible loss in the NCAA Tournament.

Although Tiger fell short once again, there's no denying that many watching want him to win so badly. This phenomenon is both amazing and unprecedented. People have always rooted for Tiger, but it was always about witnessing history. Now, it's almost as if people genuinely like him and that's why they want him to win. For his part, Tiger is certainly more likable this time around as he seemingly flashed more smiles last weekend than he had in the 20 years prior. It's why it means so much to those watching in person and those of us at home. We get excited over every great shot and we hurt over every miss. It's just like March Madness – all year.

This week: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play - Austin Country Club, Austin, Texas

Last Year: Dustin Johnson defeated Jon Rahm.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Dustin Johnson

His win last year isn't enough to put him atop this list, but when combined with his T5 the year prior, that gives DJ a leg up. This event is obviously unique because of the format, and forecasting is different this week, as well. Track history is in play as well as current form and success in this format. DJ has all boxes checked this week.

Jason Day

Thanks to an opening-round 73 Day was never a factor last week, but he fought back for a respectable top-25, which leads me to believe his form is good enough to compete this week. Day won this event twice in the last four years, so we know he's OK with the match-play format. And one of those win came on this course, so we know he's comfortable on this track.

Louis Oosthuizen

Oosthuizen missed the cut last week, which is certainly worrisome, but he finished in the top 20 the week prior, so perhaps he just had a bad week. When it comes to match play, though, few golfers more reliable. Oosthuizen hasn't been eliminated in the first round since 2011 and finished runner-up on this course two years ago.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy looked so good last week that I'm hesitant to recommend him for a one-and-done format because of the fickle nature of this event. That said, he's certainly a go for every other format. McIlroy is not only in good form, but his track record in this format and at this course is solid. He won this event in 2015 at a different location and finished fourth on this course two years ago.

Paul Casey

Casey has all the boxes checked this week as well as his form is strong (he won a couple weeks ago), he's played well on this course (top 10 here last year) and he's comfortable in this format (six top-10s in the last eight starts here). With many owners in one-and-done leagues avoiding big names, Casey likely will be a popular pick this week, though, so perhaps he's the pick for those already in a good spot.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Branden Grace

Grace has only one of the three boxes checked this week, and that's a problem. He scored a top-10 in his most recent start, but he's never fared well at this event. His best finish on the current track was a T18 two years ago. Grace failed to advance past the first round at this event in three of five starts.

Jason Dufner

Dufner just doesn't appear to be cut out for this event. Dufner advanced past the first round just once in six starts, and never on the current course.

Daniel Berger

It's a little early to make a declaration about Berger's match-play skills. He's only played this event twice, but he's failed to get past the first round in both starts. His only two starts here were on the current course as well, so perhaps the course is the issue and not the format. Whatever the case, he's not a good play this week.

HaoTong Li

Li appears to have a bundle of talent and should be a factor at some point on the PGA Tour, but he's up against it this week. This will be Li's first start at this event, and he might be in the toughest group. Li will go up against Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed and Charl Schwartzel. His odds of escaping that group are miniscule.

Francesco Molinari

Molinari is generally one of the more reliable European Tour players on the PGA Tour, but he's never quite figured out this event. Molinari has teed it up at this event seven times and has escaped the first round just once. He'll also be up against three of the hottest golfers this season in Justin Thomas, Luke List and Patton Kizzire.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Tiger Woods (T5) - $338,200; Season - $3,805,116

This week: Paul Casey - I was all set to go with the contrarian play in Louis Oosthuizen, and then the brackets came out. Oosthuizen isn't in a bracket of death, but he has to get past Jason Day, which could be tough. Casey's group shouldn't be nearly as tough to get through. Therefore, he's the play.

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Zach Johnson - (T26); Streak - 1

This week: N/A