WGC-Mexico Championship Preview: Few Playing as Well as DJ

Heading into the Honda Classic, Rickie Fowler was among the favorites, but he was certainly not at the top of the list. After a solid opening round, he moved into legitimate contender status and midway through his second round, he took the lead. With no other big names in sight, I was left to ponder, out loud, on Twitter, if this thing was over. Admittedly, I might have been caught up in the dominant performance from DJ the week before, as with all the hype that has forever surrounded Fowler I forgot he was not in fact a great or even good closer.

This fact was brought to light when Fowler took the 54-hole lead for the fifth time of his career. Previous to last week's Honda Classic, Fowler was 0-4 entering the final round with the lead. Although he's won multiple times on the PGA Tour, he's always come from behind to do so; you might say he's the anti-Tiger.

It's all part of the normal evolution of a PGA Tour golfer, though. Not many come onto the PGA Tour ready to close. It's a process that usually involves plenty of heartache. Dustin Johnson was once like Rickie Fowler. He struggled to close in big situations, but he's since evolved past that stage of his career, with the help of a major win, of course. But getting there wasn't always easy for DJ, as we all know.

Fowler isn't at that stage just yet, though; he didn't exactly coast to the finish line last week, but a win is a win and closing a 54-hole lead is closing a 54-hole lead. It's progress, and that's all these guys can strive for.

This week: WGC-Mexico Championship - Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City

Last Year: Adam Scott shot a final-round 69 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Bubba Watson.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Dustin Johnson

Since we are at a new venue this week, there is no course history to use, so everything is determined by recent form. With that in mind, enter Dustin Johnson, who just two weeks ago decimated the field at the Genesis Open. I wouldn't use him in a one-and-done format this week because we have no idea how he'll take to this course, but in all other formats, he's a go.

Rickie Fowler

His form is not in question, his ability to beat strong fields is not in question, the only thing we don't know is how he'll take to this new venue. In that sense, he's in the same boat as everyone else this week. There's no reason to think his game will leave him just because it's a new venue. Fowler is a strong selection in all formats.

Jordan Spieth

Before Fowler and DJ, it was Spieth who was on top of the PGA Tour when he won a few weeks ago at Pebble Beach. Spieth has three top-10s in four starts this season and has yet to finish worse than T22. He's certainly in the mix this week, but unlike Fowler, he has more value down the road, so he's not a great one-and-done pick. In all other formats he's a solid selection.

Jon Rahm

Rahm is no longer a sleeper at regular PGA Tour stops, but this week, he's a sleeper. This will be Rahm's first WGC start, but he has the advantage of being like everyone else who's new to this course, so his odds are better than the average first-timer. Rahm has shown great form the last couple months, and if he can up his game this week, he could contend.

Gary Woodland

Considering the strength of the field, Woodland is also classified as a sleeper this week. Outside of the guys who have won the last few weeks (Spieth, Fowler and DJ), Woodland appears to be in the best form. Woodland finished runner-up last week and tied for fifth in his previous start at Pebble Beach.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Danny Willett

A year ago, Willett was in good form as he posted a T3 at this event, just about a month prior to his Masters victory, but he's rarely shown that form in the 11 months since. Willett is now in full recovery mode, doing whatever it takes to find his game. To this point in the season, he's yet to find it and it seems unlikely that he'll find his game this week.

Bubba Watson

If we are judging the field this week by current form, then Watson has little chance. Watson missed the cut at the Phoenix Open and withdrew from the Genesis Open, two events where he usually succeeds. If he couldn't play well in those spots, what are the odds he plays well here?

Phil Mickelson

With no course history and only recent form to go on, there are going to be spots where your gut comes into play. Mickelson has played OK recently, but for some reason, I don't see Mickelson playing well this week. I can't put my finger on it, but I think he struggles this week. I guess that's the definition of using your gut.

Russell Knox

Knox was a trendy pick at the Honda Classic last week because of his track record at that event and his form this season, but for the second consecutive week, he missed the cut. While Knox looked great during his first five events of the season, he hasn't resembled that golfer in his last two starts. He's too much of a risk this week.

Pat Perez

It might be a surprise to see Perez on this list, but again, this is pick is an instinct pick. Perez is off to a great start this season, but he's never shown the ability to play well for long stretches, and this stretch of solid golf is getting awfully long for Perez.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Luke Donald (T27) - $40,832; Season - $3,107,324

This week: Gary Woodland - A very tough call this week as there are some big names in the field, but with so many questions about how these guys will take to the new venue, I feel it's wise to not burn a huge name. With that in mind, I'll take Woodland, who has the recent form to contend this week ... if he likes this course.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 1026
Rank: 18,572

This Week:

Group A: Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson

Group B: Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Jimmy Walker

Group C: Sergio Garcia, Jon Rahm

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Camilo Villegas - (MC); Streak - 0

This week: N/A - N/A