This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 289 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 289 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Bantamweight Championship
Amanda Nunes (22-5-0) v. Irene Aldana (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Nunes ($9,500), Aldana ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Nunes (-390), Aldana (+200)
Odds to Finish: -260
Nunes was scheduled for a third fight against Julianna Pena here before the latter withdrew due to injury. Aldana agreed to step in about a month ago, so both women should be ready to go on fight night.
Now 35 years of age, Amanda shocking lost her 135-pound title to Pena in December 2021. She looked awful from start to finish in that fight, eventually being choked out late in Round 2. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Nunes rebounded and destroyed Pena via unanimous decision last July to retain her belt. I don't think this is a spoiler or anything, but I would pick her going away when/if a rubber match with Pena does eventually take place.
The UFC's decision to give Aldana the title shot here is pretty underwhelming -- she's currently ranked No. 5 in the division -- but the company lacked other options.
Aldana has fought a half-dozen times since July 2019, going 4-2, with the setbacks being a split decision loss to Raquel Pennington (who Aldana was due to face against before stepping in here) and a unanimous decision loss to Holly Holm. The wins came against Macy Chiasson, Yana Santos (Kunitskaya), Ketlen Vieira and Vanessa Melo. In short, it's not an impressive resume of victories.
Irene has more power than your typical bantamweight, but she struggles to generate secondary means of offense, and her stand-up defense is a bit iffy. She's already exceeded what would be termed even the most optimistic expectation upon her December 2016 arrival, and I was going to pick her to take the rematch from Pennington, but I wager she has little-to-no shot here.
Nunes could easily be slipping some given her advanced age. It would be perfectly understandable. Of course, Aldana is two months older than Amanda. Irene also has no history of consistently getting her opposition to the mat -- she averages 0.2 takedowns per 15 minutes -- which is one area an opponent may theoretically be able to damage Nunes.
This has the look and feel of a rout. Amanda is the better athlete, has more power and has an edge in the grappling game the size of the Atlantic. Upsets happen in this sport (look at the first fight against Pena), but they're few and far between. Any Aldana victory is likely to come via decision, and it's impossible to project her to out-point Amanda over the course of five rounds.
I have zero issues dumping a large chunk of my DK budget on Nunes, while I have zero interest in Aldana as a "punt" play. I think the latter is in for a long evening.
UFC 289 PICK: Nunes
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Charles Oliveira (33-9-0, 1NC) v. Beneil Dariush (22-4-1)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($7,600), Dariush ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (+125), Dariush (-145)
Odds to Finish: TBD
These two were scheduled to co-main event UFC 288 in early-May before a minor Oliveira injury forced it to be postponed roughly a month. I'm glad they were able to re-book the bout, as it's smart matchmaking.
The former UFC Lightweight Champion, Oliveira won the title by knocking out Michael Chandler in May 2021. He followed that up with submissions of Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje before dropping the title to Islam Makhachev in a lopsided submission defeat last October. The Makhachev performance would have been disappointing were it not for the fact Islam is easily one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport today. Charles has been so good for so long that he could easily work his way back into title contention with another impressive victory or two.
It seems as if Dariush has been campaigning for a massive fight like this for years, and he's finally getting it. He deserves it. Beneil has won eight in a row dating back to November 2018. His most recent fight was an excellent performance in a unanimous decision victory over rising star Mateusz Gamrot last October.
Oliveira's exploits are well known. He has the most finishes (19) and most submission wins (16) in UFC history. His 12 Performance of the Night bonuses are also most in company history. Still just 33 years of age, Charles has shown no signs of slowing down.
Dariush comes off as the exact opposite. He's not flashy. He doesn't say much. He just goes about his business. It's fair to wonder if that has impacted his perceived "marketability" with the company, but he's an excellent fighter with no holes in his game. He just doesn't have the single "elite" skill to fall back on, which is the case with Oliveira and his grappling.
Both the odds and DraftKings salaries for this fight are a bit of a surprise to me. Essentially, I expected them to be flipped, at which point I was absolutely picking Dariush.
Charles can get reckless on the feet at times, and although he's a wizard in the submission game and especially dangerous off of his back, Dariush should have a strength advantage. I could easily see him trying to grind Oliveira -- and his 55 percent takedown defense -- down in hopes of taking a decision.
The prices are still reasonable enough that I think Dariush is the play, but I'm far less confident about it than I would have been if he entered as an underdog.
UFC 289 PICK: Dariush
Welterweight
Mike Malott (9-1-1) v. Adam Fugitt (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Malott ($8,800), Fugitt ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Malott (-230), Fugitt (+170)
Odds to Finish: TBD
Common sense would indicate this fight is on the main card because this event is taking place in Vancouver, and Malott is probably the brightest Canadian prospect in the sport today. Still, he's an excellent fighter and deserves this showcase.
A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Malott has won each of his first two UFC bouts via first-round stoppage, knocking out Mickey Gall and submitting Yohan Lainesse. As great as he's looked to date, Malott will be 32 years of age in November and has all of 11 professional fights under his belt, so it's imperative he pick up as many reps in the Octagon as possible in the coming months/years.
Fugitt fought for multiple regional promotions prior to his July 2022 UFC arrival. He was knocked out by rising star Michael Morales in his company debut before rebounding with a knockout win over Yusaku Kinoshita this past February. The sample size is small, but Fugitt has the look of a solid, all-around fighter with no significant holes in his game (but limited upside at age 34).
Malott's lone professional loss came against fellow UFC fighter Hakeem Dawodu via knockout way back in October 2014. It was Malott's fifth professional fight and Dawodu's third, so that result is irrelevant.
Despite Malott's inexperience, I've been impressed with his fight IQ. He seems to have a good feel of what's going on around him inside the Octagon, which perhaps shouldn't come as a surprise considering he trains with Team Alpha Male on a daily basis. His physical gifts certainly aren't in question, so it's easy to see why so many people are high on his future potential.
Malott should also get some added energy without the crowd behind him, making him a fairly easy pick. I have to see Fugitt beat someone of note before I can back him.
UFC 289 PICK: Malott
Featherweight
Dan Ige (16-6-0) v. Nate Landwehr (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ige ($9,100), Landwehr ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Ige (-245), Landwehr (-185)
Odds to Finish: TBD
This is an easy and obvious "Fight of the Night" contender, as it features two of the most aggressive guys around at 145 pounds.
Ige's roster spot was in legitimate jeopardy following three straight defeats from June 2021 to June 2022, but he responded in a major way, knocking out Damon Jackson in emphatic fashion this past January. Ige has really struggled with high-end competition over the course of his 5.5 years with the company, but he's handled most everyone else, leaving him in a tough spot moving forward.
Landwehr lost two of his first three with the company, only to win his last three fights, including two via submission, both of which earned him a $50,000 Performance or the Night bonus. Due to how entertaining he is, Nate is going to have a job for as long as his record remains somewhat reasonable. He puts on a show each and every time out.
That said, having just turned 35 years of age, Landwehr's skill set would appear to be one that would age poorly. He's a below-average athlete and relies upon grit and toughness to be successful. We have seen him take a beating inside the Octagon time and time again and still keep on ticking, but Nate is going to be in a massive amount of trouble if his durability begins to wane even just a little bit.
This sets up as a good stylistic matchup for Ige. He's the better pure striker with much faster hands. As long as he remains composed and doesn't make any foolish mistakes, he should be in good shape. Landwehr absorbs a whopping 5.51 significant strikes per minute, and it's hard to string together an extended winning streak when you're absorbing that much damage.
We've seen Ige struggles in the past in terms of defending the takedown, and although Landwehr is averaging just 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes, he would be wise to try to close the distance between the two and drag the fight to the mat in hopes of grinding out a decision.
Nate holds mild intrigue as a significant underdog simply because we've seen him pull upsets before and his durability is legendary, but my guess is Ige does enough consistent damage in the stand-up to take a decision.
UFC 289 PICK: Ige
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault (15-6-0, 1NC) v. Eryk Anders (15-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Barriault ($8,400), Anders ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Barriault (-145), Anders (+115)
Odds to Finish: TBD
Now 36 years of age, Anders likely saved his job with a knockout win of Kyle Daukaus last December. A former Division I linebacker who helped the University of Alabama win the 2009 National Championship, Anders has displayed legitimate power and some athleticism over the course of his UFC run, but he's never really learned the finer points of mixed martial arts, too often getting sucked into brawls and displaying poor fight IQ. He's also bounced back and forth between both middleweight and light heavyweight, which I don't love.
Barriault finds himself in a similar spot, posting a record below .500 (4-5, 1NC) over the course of his first ten bouts with the company. He's a one-dimensional power puncher who throws everything he has into every single shot and lets the chips fall where they may. Considering how often he finds himself in a reckless brawl, the fact Barriault has been knocked out just once in 22 professional fights is extremely impressive.
Anders is unquestionably the better athlete, but he makes too many mistakes inside the Octagon, limiting any theoretical upside he may have. It's difficult to see that improving given his advanced age, which is concerning.
This has all the makings of a pick 'em. Barriault is a bit younger and should get a minor boost as the crowd favorite in his native Canada. Anders is the better athlete and probably the better grappler.
Barriault's 62 percent takedown defense, while not awful, is somewhat concerning in a fight in which neither man projects to a huge edge in any single area. Anders should simply try rack up ground control time, if for no other reason than to avoid the power shots of his opponent.
This seems like as good a place as any to back the underdog in order to save some salary. I don't have particularly high hopes for either man moving forward, but Anders should offer enough to remain competitive and hopefully pull a very minor upset.
UFC 289 PICK: Anders
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) v. Chris Curtis (30-10-0
DK Salaries: Imavov ($8,500), Curtis ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Imavov (-145), Curtis (+115)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 289 PICK: Curtis
Women's Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (13-4-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Maverick ($9,300), Jasudavicius ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Maverick (-295), Jasudavicius (+220)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 289 PICK: Maverick
Bantamweight
Aiemann Zahabi (9-2-0) v. Aori Qileng (24-9-0)
DK Salaries: Zahabi ($7,900), Qileng ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Zahabi (+110), Qileng (-140)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 289 PICK: Zahabi
Featherweight
Kyle Nelson (13-5-1) v. Blake Bilder (8-0-1)
DK Salaries: Nelson ($7,200), Bilder ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Nelson (+170), Bilder (-220)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 289 PICK: Bilder
Flyweight
David Dvorak (20-5-0) v. Steve Erceg (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Dvorak ($9,400), Erceg ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Dvorak (-295), Erceg (+225)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 289 PICK: Dvorak
Women's Strawweight
Diana Belbita (14-7-0) v. Maria Oliveira (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Belbita ($8,000), Oliveira ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Belbita (-105), Oliveira (-120)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 289 PICK: Oliveira
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 289 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
