Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC Qatar DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) v. Dan Hooker (24-12-0)
DK Salaries: Tsarukyan ($9,500), Hooker ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Tsarukyan (-550), Hooker (+410)
If we are to assume Islam Makhachev has moved up to welterweight for good, Tsarukyan has a legitimate claim to be the best or second-best lightweight in the world today. He's won four in a row and nine of 10 dating back to July 2019. He was due to face Makhachev -- who he lost to via unanimous decision back in April 2019 -- for the 155-pound belt in January before withdrawing due to a back injury. Tsarukyan is going to have a real case to be next in line for current champion Ilia Topuria if he is able to dispatch Hooker.
Hooker is difficult, if not impossible, to figure out. He's currently riding a three-fight winning streak, but the last two have come via split decision (Mateusz Gamrot, Jalin Turner). Prior to that, he went through a stretch when he lost four of five. He has wins over names like Gilbert Burns, Al Iaquinta, Paul Felder, Jim Miller and others, but I never truly felt he was on the same level as the top guys in the division. Not very far off, but not quite on par with the best.
Hooker has seven career wins via submission, and he can mix in a takedown here and there under perfect circumstances, but the bottom line is that he's a brawler. He lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.72. He's been knocked out three times, but it typically takes an armored convoy to get him out of there. I will say, it's a skill set that typically doesn't age all that well, and Hooker will be 36 years old next February.
Arman, on the other hand, has more ways to win a fight. He's hit-or-miss in terms of volume on the feet, but if he's not racking up high numbers in the striking game, he's typically grinding his opponents to dust on the mat. He's averaging 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 37 percent of his attempts.
If Hooker has one thing going for him, it's that he'll enter with a five-inch edge in height and three-inch edge in reach. It sounds great in theory, but do we really think Dan is going to overwhelm a guy absorbs, on average, 1.84 significant strikes per minute on the feet?
There's also a calmness with which Arman fights that I don't think Dan can match. Everything Tsarukyan does inside the Octagon is within the flow of the fight. Much of Hooker's movements feel forced at times. He's going to have to find a way to get Arman out of his comfort zone, and that's easier said than done.
I don't like the price because Hooker is tough as nails, but I think Arman wins this one going away.
UFC QATAR PICK: Tsarukyan
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Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Belal Muhammad (24-4-0, 1NC) v. Ian Garry (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Muhammad ($7,400), Garry ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Muhammad (+205), Garry (-250)
Muhammad won the UFC Welterweight Championship from Leon Edwards in July 2024 with a brilliant performance. He was a hefty favorite in his first title defense against Jack Della Maddalena in May and looked awful. He completely got away from everything that made him successful -- that being a relentless pace and non-stop grappling. By the time he flipped the script in Rounds 4 and 5, the damage was already done. Belal is a good fighter, but he's 37 years old and isn't particularly marketable due to his style of fighting. A two-fight losing streak would likely be a death sentence in terms of earning another title shot down the road.
Garry's UFC run has gone swimmingly, and far better than I would have originally envisioned upon his November 2021 company arrival. He won each of his first eight fights with the company before dropping a competitive unanimous decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov last December. He rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Carlos Prates in a main event spot in April. Much like Hooker in the lightweight division, I'm not quite convinced Garry is quite on the same level as the best welterweights on the roster, but he's most definitely a solid fighter.
Considering how the Della Maddalena fight played out, I'd be shocked if Muhammad doesn't go back to a wrestling-oriented game plan here. This is a three-round fight. One of two well-timed takedowns and some control time could be the difference between winning and losing. Of course, at 6-foot-3 with a 74-inch reach, Garry is the considerably bigger man.
And while Garry has earned a reputation as a pure striker, his takedown defense is pretty good. He checks in at 73 percent. He's agile on his feet and a good athlete. He stuffed 8-of-10 takedown attempts against Rakhmonov, which is no easy task.
Four inches taller and entering with a two-inch edge in reach, I think the most likely scenario is that Garry remains upright long enough to pick Muhammad apart on the feet. I don't expect the stand-up exchanges to be close. Ian is the much more gifted striker. He's taller, longer, more athletic and has better footwork.
Any Muhammad victory will be the result of takedowns and ground control time, and I don't see how you can predict that given what Belal looked like in the JDM fight, combined with his advanced age.
UFC QATAR PICK: Garry
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) v. Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1)
DK Salaries: Oezdemir ($8,900), Menifield ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Oezdemir (-225), Menifield (+185)
This has all the makings of a car crash and one in which picking a winner with any confidence would seem to be exceedingly difficult.
Going back to January 2018, the night he challenged Daniel Cormier for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, Oezdemir is 5-7 in his last dozen fights. Yes, some of those setbacks have come against elite competition (Cormier, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev, Carlos Ulberg), but he's knockout-or-bust offensively and extremely suspect defensively. I'm not a huge fan.
Menifield suffered back-to-back knockout defeats to Ulberg and Azamat Murzakanov in mid-2024, and his roster spot appeared to be in real jeopardy. He has since rebounded with a split decision win over Julius Walker in February and a shocking unanimous decision upset win over Oumar Sy in June. I trust Alonzo about as much as I trust Volkan despite the fact he (somehow) has a 6-2 (1NC) mark in his last nine fights overall.
I will admit that Oezdemir looked better in his recent Ulberg setback than I expected. Carlos landed the bigger shots, but Volkan was able to largely go blow-for-blow with a guy that is going to almost certainly be next in line for a title shot at 205 pounds. The issue is that Ulberg's style plays directly into Oezdemir's strengths. He's a point kickboxer, and Volkan is no slouch on the feet.
This is also a matchup in which it appears Oezdemir will be able to remain competitive. Menifield has no grappling to speak of. He moves differently than Ulberg. He's not as nimble on the feet, but he's willing to crash the pocket in an attempt to make things happen. I think that's how you have to go about attacking Volkan given his durability issues. Of course, with three knockout defeats on his own resume, there's no guarantee Alonzo is going to be able to handle the firepower coming back his way.
This pick comes down to price and nothing else.
If Volkan was maybe a -130 or -140 favorite and cost like $8,300, he'd be the pick. As is, I have to roll with Menifield. He's the value play in a major way, although on a card with 14 fights scheduled, I suppose passing entirely isn't the worst idea in the world.
UFC QATAR PICK: Menifield
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Welterweight
Jack Hermansson (24-9-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-1)
DK Salaries: Hermansson ($7,200), Orolbai ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Hermansson (+210), Orolbai (-260)
Now 37 years old, Hermansson has somehow alternated wins and losses in his last 10 fights dating back to April 2019. If that trend holds, he'll be in good shape Saturday considering he is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues in June. There's no upside with Jack at this stage of his career, but he gives you a competent performance most every time out, and that means he has value for a company which holds an event most every week.
Orolbai fought three times for LFA prior to his November 2023 UFC arrival. Considering his minimal high-level experience, his time with the company has gone quite well. He's 3-1 to date, and the lone setback was a split decision against Mateusz Rebecki in which he most definitely could have gotten the call. He remains a relative unknown, but he's a good fighter.
Hermansson can mix in a takedown or two in the flow of a fight, but he's makes his living as an uber-aggressive fighter. He's landed 100-plus significant strikes on five difference occasions during his UFC run, including a whopping 120-plus four separate times. I'm somewhat worried that the foot speed is going to slowly fade even more as Hermansson ages, which would be a big problem given the type of style he has to employ in order to be successful.
Orolbai's striking numbers (3.11 significant strikes landed per minute, 3.08 significant strikes absorbed per minute) are largely irrelevant because he's so reliant on his grappling game for success. He's averaging 5.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing 45 percent of his attempts. In his four UFC fights, Orolbai has racked up takedown totals of: 3, 2, 5, and 7. The next guy to completely shut down Orolbai's wrestling game will be the first.
Jack hasn't been taken down in his last seven fights. The most recent opponent to get him to the mat was Kelvin Gastelum in July 2020. In a three-round fight, one or two well-timed shots from Orolbai is all it takes, but I don't want to make it seem like I think this is going to be a walk in the park for Myktybek.
Again, I don't like the price on the favorite, but at least Orolbai has a theoretical clear path to victory if he can get his grappling game going. Much like Garry and the striking. He's the pick, albeit reluctantly.
UFC QATAR PICK: Orolbai
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) v. Shamil Gaziev (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Spivac ($7,800), Gaziev ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Spivac (+120), Gaziev (-140)
UFC QATAR PICK: Spivac
Flyweight
Alex Perez (25-9-0) v. Asu Almabayev (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Perez ($7,500), Almabayev ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Perez (+170), Almabayev (-205)
UFC QATAR PICK: Almabayev
Featherweight
Bogdan Grad (15-3-0) v. Luke Riley (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Grad ($7,100), Riley ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Grad (+220), Riley (-270)
UFC QATAR PICK: Riley
Light Heavyweight
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (7-0-0) v. Raffael Cerqueira (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Yakhyaev ($9,800), Cerqueira ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Yakhyaev (-1050), Cerqueira (+675)
UFC QATAR PICK: Yakhyaev
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2-0) v. Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Ulanbekov ($8,600), Horiguchi ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Ulanbekov (-205), Horiguchi (+170)
UFC QATAR PICK: Horiguchi
Bantamweight
Bekzat Almakhan (12-2-0) v. Aleksandre Topuria (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Almakhan ($8,200), Topuria ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Almakhan (+100), Topuria (-120)
UFC QATAR PICK: Almakhan
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev (24-8-0) v. Ryan Loder (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Naurdiev ($8,500), Loder ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Naurdiev (-130), Loder (+110)
UFC QATAR PICK: Loder
Lightweight
Nurullo Aliev (10-0-0) v. Shaqueme Rock (12-1-1)
DK Salaries: Aliev ($9,200), Rock ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Aliev (-300), Rock (+240)
UFC QATAR PICK: Aliev
Welterweight
Nicolas Dalby (23-6-1, 2NC) v. Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-2-0)
DK Salaries: Dalby ($6,900), Izagakhmaev ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Dalby (+260), Izagakhmaev (-325)
UFC QATAR PICK: Izagakhmaev
Heavyweight
Marek Bujlo (6-0-0) v. Denzel Freeman (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Bujlo ($7,600), Freeman ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Bujlo (+140), Freeman (-185)
UFC QATAR PICK: Freeman
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
