This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 72 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Yadong Song (19-7-1, 1NC) v. Ricky Simon (20-3-0)
DK Salaries: Song ($7,800), Simon ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Song (-105), Simon (-115)
Odds to Finish: -165
These two were scheduled to be the co-main event of last week's card, but a Renato Moicano injury forced the cancellation of his scheduled bout against Arman Tsarukyan, pushing Song and Simon back a week and into the headline position here.
One of the more underrated bantamweights around, Song had a three-fight winning streak snapped in a TKO loss to Cory Sandhagen in a main event spot last September. Song has been with the company since November 2017 but won't turn 26 years of age until early-December. There remains a boatload of long-term potential here, although Simon represents another significant test.
Ricky is in the midst of his best run to date. The Oregon native won each of his first three UFC bouts -- including a submission of Merab Dvalishvili in his April 2018 -- only to suffer back-to-back losses at the hands of Urijah Faber (TKO) and Rob Font (unanimous decision). Simon has since rebounded with five straight wins and is a clear-cut, top-10 guy in a loaded division at this point.
As is the case every single time Simon fights, this bout will be determined by Song's ability, or inability, to defend Simon's takedown attempts. Ricky is averaging 6.55 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In nine UFC bouts, Simon has taken down every single opponent he has faced other than Urijah Faber (he lost that fight via knockout in 46 seconds). In the other seven bouts, he's landed at least two takedowns, including six-plus on four separate occasions. In short, Simon has proven to be a world-class wrestler, and it's up to Song and his 71 percent takedown defense to remain upright on a consistent basis.
I think Song is the better all-around fighter, but Simon's wrestling ability is this bout's greatest difference-maker.
Oddly enough, things have changed in the past week when these two were due to first fight. Simon's DK salary was originally $8,600, while Song was at $7,600. The Vegas odds had Simon as a -145 favorite, while Song was a +120 underdog. The money -- and the salaries -- have swung in the favor of Song over the course of the past seven days.
I'm still going to back Simon on the strength of his grappling, but this projects as a true pick 'em. It should be a terrific fight.
THE PICK: Simon
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Caio Borralho (13-1-0, 1NC) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Borralho ($9,500), Oleksiejczuk ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Borralho (-350), Oleksiejczuk (+260)
Odds to Finish: -200
A two-time winner on Dana White's Contender Series, Borralho has fought three times since making his April 2022 company debut. He won all three via decision against middling competition (Makhmud Muradov, Armen Petrosyan, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev). Borralho looks the part. He's a big, strong guy who developed a reputation as finisher on the Brazilian regional circuit.
While by no means a stud, Oleksiejczuk should represent a clear step up on competition for Borralho. Still just 28 years of age, Michal has won four of his last five, including three via knockout. Oleksiejczuk has power in his hands and is deceptively athletic. He's never going to fare well in a prolonged grappling match, however, with three of his five career losses coming via submission.
This fight seems almost certain to be determined by where it takes place. Oleksiejczuk tends to be far more active on the feet, which is to be expected considering Borralho is often controlling his opposition on the mat. Michal spent the vast majority of his UFC run at light heavyweight and has looked much more comfortable since dropping down to middleweight for his last two fights, both knockout wins. As long as his power carries over to the smaller weight class, he's a threat.
That said, he's at risk of being controlled on the mat for long stretches of this fight. Borralho averages 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, while landing an insane 75 percent of his attempts. For comparison's sake, Oleksiejczuk defends the takedown at a woeful 43-percent clip. Caio would be wise to completely forgo his striking and try to drag his opponent to the mat early and often.
I'm really worried Oleksiejczuk is going to be totally overwhelmed by the grappling game of Borralho, but I'm not willing to spend $9,500 of my budget to find out. Caio is the highest priced fighter on the entire card, and while he may very well pay off, Oleksiejczuk isn't a total pushover. He could very easily make this a more difficult fight for Borralho than his massive salary would lead you to believe.
THE PICK: Borralho
Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira (8-2-0) v. Cody Brundage (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($9,100), Brundage ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (-250), Brundage (+200)
Odds to Finish: -350
One of the most decorated mat specialists in the history of the sport, Vieira will be competing in just his eleventh professional mixed martial arts fight. Five of those bouts have been with the UFC, where he has three submission victories and two defeats (one submission, one unanimous decision) on his resume. Rodolfo is well behind where he needs to be in terms of experience at age 33, but he can handle any middleweight in the world foolish enough to roll around with him on the ground.
Brundage is the rare fighter that not only lost, but was knocked out on Dana White's Contender Series and still got a shot with the company. He's 2-2 in four fights with the UFC, including a knockout defeat to Michal Oleksiejczuk in his most recent bout last December. The sample size is small, but Cody appears to be a solid all-around fighter with no single elite skill to fall back upon in the event of trouble.
Both of these men are extremely reliant on their wrestling. Brundage is averaging 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Vieira is all the way up at 3.9 per 15. The main difference between the two -- other than the elite ground game of the Brazilian -- is that Rodolfo defends the takedown at 100 percent, while Brundage is at a solid -- but not elite -- 68-percent clip.
Of course, even if Cody is able to get Vieira to the mat, he is now in danger of being submitted by a four-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion. Vieira is also a seven-time Abu Dhabi Pro World Champion, two-time Pan American champion... well, you get the idea.
It's imperative Brundage turn this fight into an ugly brawl, but also that he does so while remaining upright. I might take him over Rodolfo is a prolonged kickboxing match considering the latter's inexperience in that area, but everything else favors Vieira. Cody isn't the worst "punt" DK play in the world, but I don't think he wins outright.
THE PICK: Vieira
Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (20-9-1) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rogerio de Lima ($8,600), Cortes-Acosta ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Rogerio de Lima (-165), Cortes-Acosta (+135)
Odds to Finish: -220
Rogerio de Lima is somehow in the midst of one of his best UFC runs to date despite the fact he will be turning 38 years of age in late-May. He's won three of four dating back to May 2021, with two of those victories (Andrei Arlovski, Ben Rothwell) coming via stoppage. Rogerio de Lima is in may ways your typical heavyweight. The power is entirely legitimate. He can also wrestle in a pinch, but his cardio is questionable and his submission defense has traditionally been awful. It's not a skill set that leads to prolonged winning streaks, particularly against quality competition.
A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Cortes-Acosta joined the UFC in October of last year and proceeded to take back-to-back unanimous decisions from Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman in a span of three weeks. Waldo is a massive human being. He's going to have a three-inch edge on Rogerio de Lima in both the height and reach department -- something that could very easily come into play in what projects to be a striking battle.
In terms of sheer power, the edge is clearly in the favor of the Brazilian. There's also a massive edge for Rogerio de Lima in terms of pro experience and quality of competition faced. Marcos has been in the Octagon with the likes of Nikita Krylov, Alexandr Romanov, Stefan Struve, Blagoy Ivanov, and others.
Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, wins with volume. The sample size is small, but he's averaging a whopping 7.81 significant strikes landed per minute. He'll have to be careful to avoid repeated power shots from Rogerio de Lima, but he's a better athlete than he gets credit for and should have a real chance to win this fight as long as he employs a bit of footwork and head movement.
There aren't a ton of underdogs I like to win outright on this card, and this seems like a good place to make a stand. Any Rogerio de Lima win will almost certainly come via knockout, meaning Waldo has a reasonable chance of emerging victorious if his durability holds up. He'll have to survive the first five minutes, but expect Cortes-Acosta to have a significant cardio edge late in the bout (if it gets there). I probably wouldn't bet it at even money, but there's enough value on the underdog side here to roll the dice.
THE PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Julian Erosa (28-11-0) v. Fernando Padilla (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Erosa ($8,800), Padilla ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Erosa (-160), Padilla (+130)
Odds to Finish: -185
THE PICK: Erosa
Heavyweight
Martin Buday (11-1-0) v. Jake Collier (13-8-0)
DK Salaries: Buday ($8,000), Collier ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Buday (-105), Collier (-115)
Odds to Finish: -125
THE PICK: Buday
Flyweight
Cody Durden (14-4-1) v. Charles Johnson (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Durden ($7,500), Johnson ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Durden (+120), Johnson (-145)
Odds to Finish: +150
THE PICK: Johnson
Welterweight
Josh Quinlan (6-0-0, 1NC) v. Trey Waters (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Quinlan ($8,500), Waters ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Quinlan (-185), Waters (+150)
Odds to Finish: -350
THE PICK: Quinlan
Bantamweight
Journey Newson (10-4-0, 1NC) vs. Marcus McGhee (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Newson ($7,300), McGhee (TBD)
Vegas Odds: TBD
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Newson
Women's Bantamweight
Stephanie Egger (8-3-0) v. Irina Alekseeva (4-1-0)
DK Salaries: Egger ($9,400), Alekseeva ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Egger (-300), Alekseeva (+240)
Odds to Finish: +100
THE PICK: Egger
Women's Bantamweight
Hailey Cowan (7-2-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (5-0-0)
DK Salaries: Cowan ($7,900), Horth ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Cowan (+115), Horth (-140)
Odds to Finish: +150
THE PICK: Cowan
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Kansas City with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
