This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 287 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Sam Hughes (7-5-0) v. Jaqueline Amorim (6-0-0)
Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Jaqueline Amorim - Height: 5'3" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Amorim is making her debut and should have an edge everywhere. Hughes could find success with takedowns, but if she cannot get top control, she likely loses position.
UFC 287 Pick: Amorim
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10-0) v. Steve Garcia (13-5-0)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 29 finishes in 39 wins
Steve Garcia - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Nuerdanbieke likely has the edge in the first round, but I expect the striking and wrestling of Garcia to take over after. Garcia is one of my favorite dogs on the card.
UFC 287 Pick: Garcia
Ignacio Bahamondes (13-4-0) v. Trey Ogden (16-5-0)
Ignacio Bahamondes - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Bahamondes will have a significant edge on the feet, while Ogden will have an advantage on the mat. However, Ogden likely struggles to get this fight down and will eat too many shots shooting for takedowns.
UFC 287 Pick: Bahamondes
Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) v. Lupita Godinez (8-3-0)
Cynthia Calvillo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Loopy Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a stern test for Godinez. Both ladies have found success on the mat, but Calvillo has the better stand-up. This should be a close fight and possible split decision from the judges. However, Calvillo has faced better competition; I see her experience pulling through.
UFC 287 Pick: Calvillo
Karl Williams (8-1-0) v. Chase Sherman (16-11-0)
Karl Williams - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 679" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
Chase Sherman - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Sherman will need a knockout early before being taken down. Williams will suffocate him on the mat if he cannot find it. Williams is one of the safest plays on the card.
UFC 287 Pick: Williams
Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0) v. Jospeh Pyfer (10-2-0)
Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 33 finishes in 35 wins
Joe Pyfer - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Pyfer looked great in his debut but was against much weaker competition than Meerschaert. This will be an excellent test to see where he is at. I like Meerschaert to avoid the power and eventually find a submission.
UFC 287 Pick: Meerschaert
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-10-0) v. Luana Pinheiro (10-1-0)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Luana Pinheiro - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to take place on the mat, as both ladies are proficient wrestlers. Waterson-Gomez has much better experience and will need to avoid the chain takedowns of Pinheiro if she wants to come out on top. If Pinheiro has her way with Waterson-Gomez, she could absolutely crush value.
UFC 287 Pick: Pinheiro
Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0) v. Chris Curtis (30-9-0)
Kelvin Gastelum - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 30 wins
DFS Perspective: I like the volume from Curtis to take this one, but without a finish, it likely ends up lower scoring. Gastelum has never been knocked out, so this is a fight I will avoid for DFS.
UFC 287 Pick: Curtis
Raul Rosas (7-0-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (8-1-0)
Raul Rosas - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Rosas delivered his promise in his debut and now draws a slight step up in competition. Rodriguez has been taken down too easily in his UFC tenure, and that will really hurt him in this fight. I expect Rosas to come out hot and dominate the ground game.
UFC 287 Pick: Rosas
Kevin Holland (23-9-0) v. Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0)
Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Improving wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a 15-minute striking affair. Both guys have power and could land something flush, but I see this going to the judges. If Ponzinibbio can figure out the length of Holland, he pulls this out with his volume.
UFC 287 Pick: Ponzinibbio
Rob Font (19-6-0) v. Adrian Yanez (16-3-0)
Rob Font - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
Adrian Yanez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal grappling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are excellent strikers, and this fight should completely depend on how fast Yanez starts. If he comes out slow, he will fall behind, and Font likely takes a split decision. On the other hand, if he starts fast, I expect him to take all three rounds or potentially give Font his first career knockout loss.
UFC 287 Pick: Yanez
Gilbert Burns (21-5-0) v. Jorge Masvidal (35-16-0)
Gilbert Burns - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 21 wins
Jorge Masvidal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 35 wins
DFS Perspective: Masvidal still has solid power, but a knockout is the only way I see him winning this. Burns will likely have more volume and will have a massive edge on the mat. I expect him to make quick work of Masvidal.
UFC 287 Pick: Burns
Alex Pereira (7-1-0) v. Israel Adesanya (23-2-0)
Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Israel Adesanya - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Izzy is still quick and one of the best strikers in the world. However, much like the last fight, I expect Pereira to find the better shots and become 4-0 against his rival. This fight should stay on the feet with both fighters having their chances, but Pereira seems to have Izzy's number, so I will roll with the dog once again.
UFC 287 Pick: Pereira
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 287 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
