This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 77 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-5-0) v. Ailin Perez (7-2-0)
Ashlee Evans-Smith - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
Ailin Perez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Evans-Smith returns to the ring after two and a half years, and ring rust will undoubtedly be a factor. I expect this fight to primarily take place on the feet, where Perez should have a considerable advantage with power and speed. After a tough debut, this is a fight Perez should win if she avoids making mistakes.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Perez
Carl Deaton III 17-6-0) v. Alexander Munoz (6-2-0)
Carl Deaton - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Alex Munoz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a low-level fight between two fighters with zero UFC wins. Deaton was completely ragdolled in his debut, while Munoz lost via split decision last time out. I do not trust either fighter. However, Munoz has fought better competition and looks to be slightly better everywhere. This fight is unpredictable and is better left for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Munoz
Tyson Nam (21-13-1) v. Azat Maksum (16-0-0)
Tyson Nam - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
Azat Maksum - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: The UFC vet Nam will be taking on the debuting undefeated Maksum in what should be a thrilling fight. Nam will always have a puncher's chance, but I expect Maksum to be better everywhere the fight goes and for him to be the first UFC fighter to take Nam down. Although Maksum is priced at a premium, I love him for all DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Maksum
Genaro Valdez (10-2-0) v. Evan Elder (7-2-0)
Genaro Valdez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Evan Elder - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an excellent fight to target for DFS, as someone is likely getting knocked out early. Both guys come out with a lot of forward pressure and heavy shots. I do not see this one getting out of the second round, making it one of the best fights to get a piece of. Elder has been slightly more impressive, but this could go either way.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Elder
Jack Della Maddalena (14-2-0) v. Bassil Hafez (8-3-1)
Jack Della Maddalena - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Bassil Hafez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Maddalena was supposed to fight last week but unfortunately had two opponents drop out last minute. He now draws a debuting Hafez, who has no high-level fights to his name. Maddalena will likely be the highest-priced fighter on the slate and the most owned, as he should end this early in the first round. He is the lock of the card.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Maddalena
Austin Lingo (9-2-0) v. Melquizael Costa (19-6-0)
Austin Lingo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a closely-contested fight, with Lingo having an edge on the feet and Costa the advantage on the mat. Lingo has solid takedown and wrestling defense but needs to avoid a precarious position that could get him submitted for the second fight in a row. Costa struggled against another grappler in his debut but will not have that issue in this fight. He will be the aggressor looking for takedowns where he should find success with his ground game. Lingo has faced better competition and should be able to stuff enough takedowns to win.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Lingo
Istela Nunes (6-4-0) v. Viktoriia Dudakova (6-0-0)
Istela Nunes - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
Viktoriia Dudakova - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This is likely Nunes's last fight in the UFC. She has lost three in a row, and I expect this to be her fourth. Dudakova will get touched up on the feet, but it will end soon after she gets this to the mat. She is electric on the mat, and with the weak ground game of Nunes, she should end this early by submission.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Dudakova
Tucker Lutz (12-3-0) v. Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-2-0)
Tucker Lutz - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Melsik Baghdasaryan - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a close fight that primarily takes place on the feet. Baghdasaryan is a technical striker with excellent precision. He has one-touch power, but we have yet to see it against greater competition. Lutz has dropped his last two fights to high-level grapplers and will love seeing a striker. He is loaded with power, and I expect him to push the tempo to keep Baghdasaryan on the back foot. Given Baghdasaryan's lack of tools, I like the Lutz to get back on track as a considerably large dog.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Lutz
Terrance McKinney (13-5-0) v. Nazim Sadykov (8-1-0)
Terrance McKinney - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Nazim Sadykhov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another big target for DFS contests, which should end with a finish. Sadykov is coming off an impressive knockout and will have several opportunities to find another in this one. McKinney's reckless style leaves him open for clean shots, so he has been knockout twice in three fights. However, he does have power and will have a considerable edge on the mat if he chooses to take it there. I like the experience of McKinney and expect a little more defense from him in this one. Give me the dog.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: McKinney
Ottman Azaitar (13-1-0) v. Francisco Prado (11-1-0)
Ottman Azaitar - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Francisco Prado - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Prado showed very little in his debut, so I am unsure why he is the favorite. He has power and a solid ground game but has yet to face high-level competition. Azaitar was knocked out in the first round of his most recent fight but has two UFC wins to his name, both by knockout. Both fighters suffered their first recorded losses and will be itching to get back into the win column. Azaitar has excellent forward pressure, and I see him clipping Prado before this hits the mat where Prado would have the edge.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Azaitar
Norma Dumont (9-2-0) v. Chelsea Chandler (5-1-0)
Norma Dumont - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 9 wins
Chelsea Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Dumont will have a considerable edge in experience, which plays a big difference in this fight. Chandler impressively won her debut, recording a first-round knockout after an onslaught of strikes, but draws a step-up in competition in Dumont. Dumont is great at slowing and controlling the pace of the fight and has excellent striking defense. I expect her to slow Chandler and record another low-scoring decision.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Dumont
Albert Duraev (16-4-0) v. Junyong Park (16-5-0)
Albert Duraev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Jun Yong Park - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Park is one of my favorite picks on the card. He can do everything Duraev can do but better. I expect him to have complete control of the fight, dictate where it goes, and put up a solid DFS score in the process.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Park
Holly Holm (15-6-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1)
Holly Holm - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
Mayra Bueno Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Holm continues to prove she has plenty left in the tank at 41. However, she must keep this fight upright and at a distance to safely navigate to a win in this one. Silva will have a considerable edge if she can get this to the mat, but Holm does have solid takedown defense. If she tries to strike with Holm for 25 minutes, she might also struggle to hit the mark enough to score a decision. I expect this to be close, and I think Silva can succeed with takedowns for at least three rounds to steal this away.
UFC Vegas 77 Pick: Bueno Silva
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 77 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
