This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 8 for UFC 313. The main event sees Alex Pereira defending his light heavyweight title against Magomed Ankalaev.
Below, I'll share my UFC 313predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Alex Pereira (12-2) vs Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1)
Alex Pereira is defending his light heavyweight title in the main event of UFC 313, and this is a good spot for the champ to retain his belt against Magomed Ankalaev.
The common perception going into this fight is that Ankalaev is a wrestler and will be able to take Pereira down, but Ankalaev is far from a wrestler. Ankalaev is averaging just 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and has just a 31 percent success rate on his takedowns.
Ankalaev is not the dominant wrestler many make him out to be, and Pereira has good enough scrambling ability to get up to his feet if he is taken down. Ankalaev also doesn't throw much volume on the feet. He's also had issues dealing with leg kicks, which is one of Pereira's great assets.
Pereira should be able to damage Ankalaev with his leg kicks to take down his base and eventually get a KO win here.
UFC 313 Bet: Alex Pereira (-115)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Jalin Turner (14-8) vs Ignacio Bahamondes (16-5)
There are a lot of underdogs I like on this card, but one I really like is Jalin Turner.
Turner is taking on Ignacio Bahamondes, who has had mixed results in the UFC. The biggest advantage Bahamondes has had in his career is his size and reach, but that won't be the case against Turner.
Turner should be able to push the pace against Bahamondes and land the better shots on the feet to win a decision, as we have seen Bahamondes slow down if he can't get an early finish.
UFC 313 Bet: Jalin Turner (+105)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Alex Morono (24-11, 1 NC) vs Carlos Leal (21-6)
Alex Morono hasn't looked good in his last two fights, but one thing he still has is durability, as he is hard to put away.
Carlos Leal is a massive favorite, and I think he will win, but I also believe this fight goes the distance. For just -115 to get over 2.5 rounds is a great spot. Morono has gone over 2.5 rounds in seven of his last nine fights and has gone the distance in 15 of his 22 UFC appearances.
When Leal finishes fights, it is by knockout, but he should have a hard time knocking Morono out, as he has a good chin. Ultimately, it will be a 15-minute kickboxing fight, with perhaps the odd takedown, but I trust Morono's chin to last for the over to hit.
UFC 313 Bet: Alex Morono & Carlos Leal over 2.5 rounds (-115)
Weight Class: Featherweight & Heavyweight
Mairon Santos (14-1) vs Francis Marshall (8-2)
Curtis Blaydes (18-5) vs Rizvan Kuniev (13-2-1)
For my parlay at UFC 313, I'm taking Mairon Santos and Curtis Blaydes to get their hands raised.
Santos won The Ultimate Fighter in his last fight with a good KO win, as he is a great and dangerous striker. The Brazilian should be able to land the better shots against Marshall and find the finishing shot early in the fight to get a big win here.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Blaydes to beat Kuniev, as this is too big of a step up for Kuniev. The way to beat Blaydes is to knock him out, but Kuniev doesn't have the power.
Blaydes should be able to use his wrestling to control Kuniev, which will lead to him getting a stoppage win in the second or third round as Kuniev fades.
UFC 313 Bet: Mairon Santos & Curtis Blaydes parlay (-141)
UFC 313 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 313 bets:
- Alex Pereira (-115)
- Jalin Turner (+105)
- Alex Morono-Carlos Leal over 2.5 rounds (-115)
- Mairon Santos & Curtis Blaydes parlay (-141)
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