This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 310 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 310 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (13-5-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (9-5-1)
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Lukasz Brzeski - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Brzeski has yet to show us anything that says he can win this fight. Especially if Nzechukwu shows up like he did in his most recent fight. He will have the edge everywhere and should not have an issue keeping this on the feet. However, I would only expect a high score for DFS with a finish within the first two rounds.
UFC 310 Pick: Nzechukwu
Clay Guida (38-24-0) v. Chase Hooper (14-3-1)
Clay Guida - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 38 wins
Chase Hooper - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Given the evolution of Hooper's game, I see no way Guida wins this fight. Hooper will have the edge everywhere this fight goes and should put up another solid score for DFS.
UFC 310 Pick: Hooper
Michael Chiesa (17-7-0) v. Max Griffin (20-10-0)
Michael Chiesa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
Max Griffin - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a fade type of fight for me. Chiesa got back in the win column last time out, but it was against an aging Tony Ferguson. Griffin also earned a win, but it was a split decision he arguably lost. Griffin is the likely winner of this fight, but I would not expect a high score for DFS.
UFC 310 Pick: Griffin
Cody Durden (17-6-1) v. Joshua Van 11-2-0)
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This could be a sneaky fight to pick for GPP contests. Durden is known for chaining takedowns, which racks up points quickly for DFS. On the other side, Van throws tremendous volume and also tends to score well for DFS. The winner of this fight could squeeze their way into the optimal lineup. If Van defends takedowns, it will be his fight to lose. However, I am going to take a chance on the dog and hope Durden finds success with them.
UFC 310 Pick: Durden
Chris Weidman (16-7-0) v. Eryk Anders (16-8-0)
Chris Weidman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Eryk Anders - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I have little interest in this fight for DFS. Neither guy is active enough to score well in a decision, and it is likely that it will go that way. Anders will likely have a tiny edge on the feet, which should be the difference in this fight.
UFC 309 Pick: Anders
Randy Brown (19-5-0) v. Bryan Battle (11-2-0)
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are riding three-fight winning streaks and should have equal chances to win this fight. The striking will likely be close, with the difference coming from Battle's ability to get this to the mat. He also has a much better chance of finishing this fight early. Battle makes a solid play for all DFS contests.
UFC 310 Pick: Battle
Movsar Evloev (18-0-0) v. Aljamain Sterling (24-4-0)
Movsar Evloev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 18 wins
Aljamain Sterling - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a tough fight to gauge. Both guys are credentialed grapplers, and this fight should come down to whoever gets control first. I expect a little striking, but I would give Evloev an edge there. I can see both fighters having moments on the mat, but I expect Evloev to get the better of most exchanges.
UFC 310 Pick: Evloev
Vicente Luque (22-10-1) v. Themba Gorimbo (14-4-0)
Vicente Luque - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins
Themba Gorimbo - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: I would love to believe there is still gas left in the tank for Luque, but it is difficult to think that, given his most recent fights. Gorimbo continued climbing in the division with a dominant win in his last fight and now draws another step up in competition. If we see the Luque of old, we could see a sizable upset, but it is more likely that Gorimbo has his way and earns his shot at a ranked fighter.
UFC 310 Pick: Gorimbo
Anthony Smith (37-20-0) v. Dominick Reyes (13-4-0)
Anthony Smith - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 35 finishes in 38 wins
Dominick Reyes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a tough fight to predict. Both guys are still capable of big fights and finishes, but they are also equally capable of being finished. It would be wise to play both fighters in mass-entry GPP tournaments, as the winner could score well with a finish within the first two rounds.
UFC 310 Pick: Reyes
Nate Landwehr (18-5-0) v. Doo Ho Choi (15-4-1)
Nate Landwehr - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Doo Ho Choi - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a good fight to target for GPP contests. Choi has been kill or be killed in the UFC, and Landwehr is not far behind him in that regard. Landwehr's chin is better than Choi's, and he will have a considerable edge in volume. Landwehr is the pick.
UFC 310 Pick: Landwehr
Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) v. Kron Gracie (5-2-0)
Bryce Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
Kron Gracie - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Although Mitchell has been on medical leave, I do not expect him to have any issue dominating this fight. He will likely be a popular play for DFS, and rightly so.
UFC 310 Pick: Mitchell
Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) v. Alexander Volkov (38-10-0)
Ciryl Gane - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Alexander Volkov - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 38 wins
DFS Perspective: Volkov is always live for a knockout, but I expect him to get completely outclassed and outpointed. Gane makes an excellent cash play for DFS.
UFC 310 Pick: Gane
Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) v. Ian Garry (15-0-0)
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 18 wins
Ian Garry - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Someone in this fight will lose their zero, and that fighter will be Garry. Rakhmonov is better in every facet of the game except for maybe technical striking. I expect Garry to crumble under the pressure of Rakhmonov and eventually get finished early. Rakhmonov is one of the best plays on the slate.
UFC 310 Pick: Rakhmonov
Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) v. Kai Asakura (21-4-0)
Alexandre Pantoja - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 28 wins
Kai Asakura - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Asakura is making a rare debut fight for the belt from the Rizin promotion. He is a powerful striker with a solid ground game and cardio issues. Pantoja is everything we expect from a champion, and I do not expect to see him lose the belt to the newcomer. Pantoja will have no issue avoiding the power of Asakura and should dominate the longer the fight goes. Lock him into your DFS lineups.
UFC 310 Pick: Pantoja
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
