UFC 314 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 314 is one of the best cards fight fans have been offered in months. It's also one of the most intriguing from DFS and betting perspectives, as big points and big dogs could score in equal measure. We'll take a look at all 13 fights across three platforms, including a BJJ ace looking to stake her claim to a title shot, and a surging middleweight looking to stop a hype train. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Virna Jandiroba ($8,300)
Jandiroba was my strawweight pick to be champion by the end of 2025 due to her ever-improving boxing and top notch BJJ game. While her title shot doesn't come here, she has a great chance to put herself at the front of the line with a win over Yan Xiaoan, who has struggled with smothering grapplers in the past. Xionan's footwork and toughness have helped keep her near the top of the division, but she's never faced a submission artist like "Carcara," who has secured 14 of her 21 victories via tapout.
Hailey Cowan ($7,600)
Cowan's tendency to leave her head on the center line makes it tough to stand behind her with confidence. Still, she draws what looks like a favorable matchup against Nora Cornolle, who has a hard time closing distance against fighters who can keep range. Despite being a kickboxer by trade, Cornolle seemingly can't help but initiate grappling exchanges. This should allow Cowan to take over the fight, as she is incredibly strong and vicious in clinch situations.
Tresean Gore ($7,000)
While I have questions about Gore's durability, it's incredibly hard for me to play Marco Tulio as a big favorite. The Brazilian knockout artist is so wild and unstructured that he often times needs to land the perfect shot to put opponents away, as he is unable to rely on sustained offense. Meanwhile, Gore has a solid jab and is a strong wrestler. The threat of the early finish should push players to have shares of Tulio, but I have serious concerns regarding his level.
Nikita Krylov ($8,800)
Dominick Reyes is riding back-to-back wins for the first time in six years, but knockouts of Dustin Jacoby and an Anthony Smith who was in no condition to fight have done little to convince me that the former title challenger is back in form. He has certainly never faced an opponent like Krylov, who is going to attempt to smother him with offense until he is able to bring the fight to the ground. There was a time when "The Devastator" would have feasted on an opponent with such little defense, but it seems likely that he just gets overwhelmed here.
Chase Hooper ($9,600)
Hooper has addressed concerns about his physicality and boxing to such a degree that I expect him to roll over Jim Miller in this spot. We know just how tough and grimey "A-10" can make any contest, but a five-inch height disadvantage won't do him any favors when it comes to closing the distance. The scrawny kid of a few years ago could conceivably have struggled with a fighter like Miller, but present-day Hooper will likely use this bout as a springboard to title contention.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Michal Oleksiejczuk OVER 30.5 Significant Strikes, Mitch Raposo OVER 33.5 Significant Strikes, and Dan Ige OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes
A potential early finish combined with Sedriques Dumas's fondness for wrestling has kept this total low, but all of that grappling has exhausted "The Reaper" in past fights, which makes me think he will return to his roots as a striker here. Both men will be wary of the power possessed by the other, which should make this fight boring enough to get beyond the first few rounds, but exciting enough for us to easily surpass this line.
We saw a much different Su Mudaerji in his loss to Charles Johnson, as the notorious brawler choose to fight from the outside quite often. Raposo has incredibly fast hands and fails to close distance even when it would be to his benefit, and I expect a robust total from the kickboxing match that ensues as a consequence.
Ige has never been afraid to collapse the pocket to work his boxing. He will have his hands full in this regard, as Sean Woodson carries a whopping seven-inch reach advantage, but we have seen him react negatively to pressure before, as it does not allow him to utilize his frame. I expect a back-and-forth technical battle, which will leave us plenty of room to spare on this total.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Fantasy Score
Yair Rodriguez Scores OVER 86.5 Fantasy Points and Julian Erosa Scores OVER 96.5 Fantasy Points
I believe there is a universe in which Patricio Freire is competitive with Rodriguez, but this would require him to stay on his pressure from the opening bell. The problem is we have seen him lax on this front as recently as his fight with Jeremy Kennedy in the PFL, which required him to make a comeback after getting hurt by an opponent not known for his power. Rodriguez's aggression and variety of attack will be a nightmare for the shorter man if he gets caught standing at range.
Darren Elkins has made a nice career of getting hurt in fights before rallying to excite fans with a comeback victory. I would be downright shocked if this can occur against Erosa, wo will carry a three-inch reach advantage and some slick grappling into the contest. Elkins was stopped cold when trying to create a messy scrap with Cub Swanson, and Erosa has all the tools to put on a similar performance.
UFC Bets to Consider
Alexander Volkanovski Wins via KO/TKO (+300)
Diego Lopes is a legitimate talent thanks to his power and elite jiujitsu, but he's about to bump into a very hard ceiling here. The Brazilian is so stiff on the feet that he let Brian Ortega back into their fight after hurting him badly in Round 1, and the former champion is still an expert when it comes to footwork and finding his shots. Volkanovski's ability to get up off his back is such that no featherweight has held him there for long stretches of time, and the Australian fighter has never been submitted in 30 professional MMA fights. Unless he is ready for retirement, I expect Volkanovski to regain the belt in fine style.
Michael Chandler Wins via KO/TKO (+295)
I'm struggling to understand how Paddy Pimblett deals with the explosivity and power of Chandler after getting wobbled by multiple fighters who have far less of both. To be clear, Chandler is 1-4 in his last five fights for good reason, but we can't deny that the former Bellator champion has faced only the elite in his division of late. We have seen the range of "The Baddy" give fighters problems before, but I don't think he is ready for how quickly Chandler can close distance.
Jean Silva Wins via KO/TKO (+125)
Bryce Mitchell has taken to standing with his opponents far too much in recent fights. So much so that he didn't even attempt a takedown in the 1:57 he was in the ring with Josh Emmett before suffering one of the worst knockouts I have ever seen. Silva should be able to apply the same kind of forward pressure as Emmett, while benefitting from even more athleticism. Mitchell will need to either submit the fighting nerd or keep him on the mat for the better part of 15 minutes. I do not see either as particularly likely, as Silva has yet to be submitted in 17 professional fights.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Bets Bets for UFC 314 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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