This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 314 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 314 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 102-42-1 ~ Dog Picks 20-9-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Michael Chandler +130 ~ 8-3-1 +815
DFS Lock of the Week: Jean Silva - 10-1
Fanduel Captain: Silva/Rodriguez
Nora Cornolle (8-2-0) v. Hailey Cowan (7-3-0)
Nora Cornolle - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Hailey Cowan - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Cowan will need to land takedowns and control position to have a shot, but her struggles maintaining top pressure could spell trouble. If Cornolle keeps it standing, she should dominate with volume and power -- don't be surprised if she secures a knockout. Cornolle could be a sneaky play if you think she gets the early finish.
UFC 314 Pick: Cornolle
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Tresean Gore (6-2-0) v. Marco Tulio (13-1-0)
Tresean Gore - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 5 wins
Marco Tulio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Gore's power is real, but his output and durability are major concerns. Tulio is the more active striker and has a clear edge in volume, which could be enough over three rounds. If Gore doesn't land something big early, Tulio will likely take over with pace and pressure.
UFC 314 Pick: Tulio
Su Mudaerji (16-7-0) v. Mitch Raposo (9-2-0)
Su Mudaerji - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Mitch Raposo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Mudaerji's significant reach and striking prowess present a challenge for Raposo, who may rely on his wrestling to neutralize the stand-up threat. If Raposo can't secure takedowns, Mudaerji's striking advantage could dictate the fight's outcome, and it would not be a shock to see Mudaerji record another early finish. I expect him to be a popular and solid play for DFS.
UFC 314 Pick: Mudaerji
Sedriques Dumas (10-2-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-9-0)
Sedriques Dumas - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Michal Oleksiejczuk - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Oleksiejczuk's aggressive striking and early-round power have been his trademarks, but he's currently on a three-fight losing streak. With a significant reach advantage, Dumas may exploit Oleksiejczuk's defensive woes. If Dumas can weather the initial storm and maintain distance, he could control the fight's tempo and capitalize as Oleksiejczuk's pace slows, particularly on the mat if he shoots for takedowns. However, the possibility that Dumas gets knocked out early is also in play.
UFC 314 Pick: Olekseijcuk
Darren Elkins (29-11-0) v. Julian Erosa (30-12-0)
Darren Elkins - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 29 wins
Julian Erosa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 25 finishes in 30 wins
DFS Perspective: Elkins' toughness has carried him through countless wars, and this one could be another grind. That said, Erosa is the more dangerous finisher with better tools on the feet and a sneaky submission game -- he's the more likely of the two to create a higher DFS ceiling. However, Elkins always makes a solid dart throw and should be used as such for larger tournaments.
UFC 314 Pick: Erosa
Jim Miller (38-18-0) v. Chase Hooper (15-3-1)
Jim Miller - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 38 wins
Chase Hooper - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: I'm not sure why the UFC is still slow-rolling Hooper, but this feels like a showcase. His grappling has always been slick, but his striking has come a long way, too. Unless Miller catches him early, Hooper should dominate everywhere, making him a great DFS play with a clear finishing upside.
UFC 314 Pick: Hooper
Xiaonan Yan (19-4-0) v. Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0)
Yan Xiaonan - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 19 wins
Virna Jandiroba - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Yan's crisp striking and ability to maintain distance will be key against Jandiroba's relentless takedown attempts and superior ground game. If Yan can keep the fight standing, she has a clear path to victory; otherwise, Jandiroba's grappling could dictate the outcome. Although Jandiroba only needs one takedown to find her submissions, I am getting to more Yan when building lineups. It was not long ago that Yan was fighting for the belt, and I feel she has the overall skill set to win this fight.
UFC 314 Pick: Yan
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Dan Ige (18-9-0) v. Sean Woodson (13-1-1)
Dan Ige - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Sean Woodson - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Ige will need to work his way inside against the much taller Woodson, who thrives at range. If Ige can't close distance and land something heavy, Woodson's volume and length should carry him to a win. If Ige works in his wrestling and can succeed with takedowns, he will have a considerable edge. However, Woodson is more likely to do whatever he needs to keep Ige on the outside looking in.
UFC 314 Pick: Woodson
Nikita Krylov (30-9-0) v. Dominick Reyes (14-4-0)
Nikita Krylov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 30 wins
Dominick Reyes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Krylov's aggressive grappling could test Reyes' takedown defense, but Reyes's striking power remains a significant threat. If Reyes keeps it standing, he has a clear path to victory; otherwise, Krylov's ground game might dominate. Krylov has the higher ceiling if you take a Reyes knockout off the table. However, there is risk going Krylov since he has not fought in over two years.
UFC 314 Pick: Krylov
Bryce Mitchell (17-3-0) v. Jean Silva (15-2-0)
Bryce Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Jean Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: I never go against the Fighting Nerds, and Silva is one of their best. His pace, pressure, and power should be too much for Mitchell, who's been hittable and fading lately. I'm all in on Silva and expect him to finish this early -- elite DFS upside.
UFC 314 Pick: Silva
Yair Rodriguez (20-6-0) v. Patricio Pitbull (36-7-0)
Yair Rodriguez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Patricio Freire - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 24 finishes in 36 wins
DFS Perspective: Pitbull's a legend, but he's a few years too late to the UFC. Rodriguez should be the faster, more active fighter and outwork him with volume and movement over three rounds. Unless Pitbull lands something huge early, this should be Rodriguez's fight to lose. He's a strong play with sneaky decision equity and the potential for late attritional damage.
UFC 314 Pick: Rodriguez
Michael Chandler (23-9-0) v. Paddy Pimblett (22-3-0)
Michael Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
Paddy Pimblett - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Chandler's explosive power and wrestling pedigree present a significant challenge for Pimblett, who has shown vulnerabilities against high-level competition. While Pimblett's grappling is formidable, Chandler's experience and athleticism could dictate the pace. If Chandler lands early, it could be a short night for Pimblett. Chandler makes an excellent dog play for DFS.
UFC 314 Pick: Chandler
Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) v. Diego Lopes (26-6-0)
Alexander Volkanovski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 26 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: I'm all in on Lopes here and wouldn't be surprised to see him end this early. He still hasn't shown the full depth of his BJJ, but if this hits the mat, we might finally get to see it. That said, Volkanovski is a former champ and still as dangerous as ever -- tough, composed, and battle-tested. Lopes has momentum and finishing upside, but you can never count Volk out.
UFC 314 Pick: Lopes
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
