UFC 316 Expert Picks: Predictions for the Main Card

UFC 316 Expert Picks: Predictions for the Main Card

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

MMA Expert Picks & Predictions: UFC 316 Pay-Per-View Card

Fan-favorite Sean O'Malley looks to get his belt back against the man who originally took it Saturday night at the Prudential Center in New Jersey, as he'll square off with Merab Dvalishvili in a rematch of their September 2025 clash. Also on the card, current women's bantamweight champion Julianna Pena finds herself as a massive underdog against relative newcomer and former Olympian Kayla Harrison.

As a reminder, the following selections are purely picks. If you're looking for betting or fantasy-specific breakdowns of these fights, check out the following articles on RotoWire:

UFC 316 DraftKings Picks
UFC 316 Betting Picks
UFC 316 Fight by Fight Breakdowns
UFC 316 Multi-Site DFS Preview

We also have a MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer to try if you're looking to try out different combinations of fighters or generate multiple lineups, plus UFC 316 odds from every major sportsbook.

MATCHUP

WEIGHT 

CLASS

JONJAKECHRIS
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (-325) vs.
Sean O'Malley (+260)

Bantamweight
Championship

DvalishviliDvalishviliDvalishvili
(C) Julianna Pena (+455) vs.
Kayla Harrison (-625)

Women's
Bantamweight
Championship

HarrisonHarrisonHarrison
Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs.
Joe Pyfer (-380)

Middleweight

PyferPyferPyfer
Mario Bautista (+145) vs.
Patchy Mix (-175)

Bantamweight

MixMixMix
Vicente Luque (+215) vs. 
Kevin Holland (-265)

Welterweight

HollandLuqueLuque
     
UFC 316 RECORD 0-00-00-0
2025 RECORD 12-1114-99-14
2025 PERCENTAGE .522.609.391
2024 RECORD 45-1941-2339-25
2024 PERCENTAGE .703.641.610
2023 RECORD 42-2544-2335-32
2023 PERCENTAGE .627.657.522
2022 RECORD 34-2740-2125-26
2022 PERCENTAGE .557.656.490
2021 RECORD 35-2842-2137-26
2021 PERCENTAGE .556.667.586
2020 RECORD 36-1834-2028-26
2020 PERCENTAGE .667.630.519
2019 RECORD 39-1935-2332-26
2019 PERCENTAGE .672.603.552
ALL-TIME  338-209347-200 274-219
ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE .618.634.556

 

MATCHUP

WEIGHT 
CLASS

JOE
"SUNTZU"

COLE     DRAKE
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (-325) vs.
Sean O'Malley (+260)

Bantamweight
Championship

O'MalleyDvalishviliDvalishvili
(C) Julianna Pena (+455) vs.
Kayla Harrison (-625)

Women's
Bantamweight
Championship

HarrisonHarrisonHarrison
Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs.
Joe Pyfer (-380)

Bantamweight

PyferPyferPyfer
Mario Bautista (+145) vs.
Patchy Mix (-175)

Women's
Flyweight

BautistaMixBautista
Vicente Luque (+215) vs. 
Kevin Holland (-265)

Lightweight

HollandHollandHolland
     
UFC 316 RECORD 0-00-00-0
2025 RECORD 15-814-914-9
2025 PERCENTAGE .652.609.609
2024 RECORD 40-2440-2443-21
2024 PERCENTAGE .625.625.672
2023 RECORD 41-2644-2336-31
2023 PERCENTAGE .612.657.537
2022 RECORD 38-2339-2239-22
2022 PERCENTAGE .623.639.639
2021 RECORD 38-2543-2117-14
2021 PERCENTAGE .603.672.548
2020 RECORD 36-18N/AN/A
2020 PERCENTAGE .667N/AN/A
2019 RECORD 34-24N/AN/A
2019 PERCENTAGE .586N/AN/A
ALL-TIME 279-167177-97149-97
ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE .626.646.606

THE PICKERS

Jon Litterine: RotoWire lead MMA beat writer and scribe for our weekly DrafKings preview. Lead analyst on the RotoWire MMA Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @JonLitterine.

Jake Letarski: RotoWire.com Operations Manager, plus MMA and NCAA Hoops Senior Editor. Host on the RotoWire MMA Podcast and guest on the RotoWire Fantasy Football Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @RotoJake.

Chris Olson: Contributor at RotoWire to "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," as well as The MMA MashupDFS Baseballa MMA gambling columnist and fight recaps. Follow him on Twitter at @RealChrisOlson.

Joe "SunTszu": Known more commonly by his Twitter handle @SunTszu, Joe is a Hedge Fund Executive by day and high-volume DFS player by night. He is a 2x "Bracket Challenge" & "Gotham qualifier. You can also find him as one of the original contributors of "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," a DFS-centric video breakdown. He is also a co-creator of the "Creating Alpha in DFS" podcast.

Cole Shelton: Cole Shelton is a full-time sports writer focusing on MMA. His work has appeared on BJPenn.com, CBC Sports, Sports Betting Dime and Blue Jays Nation. He currently pens the MMA Best Bets column on RotoWire. Follow him on Twitter at @ColeShelton91.

Drake Burden: Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities. Follow him on Twitter at @DBurdz.

RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jake Letarski plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotojakeski, DraftKings: RotoJakeSki.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jake Letarski
RotoWire Editor for College Basketball and MMA. Frequent podcaster, plus radio and video guest. Follow Jake on Twitter at @RotoJake.
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