UFC 316 Expert Picks: Predictions for the Main Card

Written by

Jake Letarski

Updated on June 18, 2025 3:46PM EST

Find your PERFECT PICK

View RotoWire's advanced analysis across all major sportsbooks and DFS.

Daily Picks
Effortless Analysis
Data-Driven Decisions
Web and App Support

MMA Expert Picks & Predictions: UFC 316 Pay-Per-View Card

Fan-favorite Sean O'Malley looks to get his belt back against the man who originally took it Saturday night at the Prudential Center in New Jersey, as he'll square off with Merab Dvalishvili in a rematch of their September 2025 clash. Also on the card, current women's bantamweight champion Julianna Pena finds herself as a massive underdog against relative newcomer and former Olympian Kayla Harrison.

As a reminder, the following selections are purely picks. If you're looking for betting or fantasy-specific breakdowns of these fights, check out the following articles on RotoWire:

UFC 316 DraftKings Picks
UFC 316 Betting Picks
UFC 316 Fight by Fight Breakdowns
UFC 316 Multi-Site DFS Preview

We also have a MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer to try if you're looking to try out different combinations of fighters or generate multiple lineups, plus UFC 316 odds from every major sportsbook.

MATCHUP	WEIGHT CLASS	JON	JAKE	CHRIS
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (-325) vs. Sean O'Malley (+260)	Bantamweight Championship	Dvalishvili	Dvalishvili	Dvalishvili
(C) Julianna Pena (+455) vs. Kayla Harrison (-625)	Women's Bantamweight Championship	Harrison	Harrison	Harrison
Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs. Joe Pyfer (-380)	Middleweight	Pyfer	Pyfer	Pyfer
Mario Bautista (+145) vs. Patchy Mix (-175)	Bantamweight	~~Mix~~	~~Mix~~	~~Mix~~
Vicente Luque (+215) vs. Kevin Holland (-265)	Welterweight	Holland	~~Luque~~	~~Luque~~

UFC 316 RECORD		4-1	3-2	3-2
2025 RECORD		16-12	17-11	12-16
2025 PERCENTAGE		.571	.607	.429
2024 RECORD		45-19	41-23	39-25
2024 PERCENTAGE		.703	.641	.610
2023 RECORD		42-25	44-23	35-32
2023 PERCENTAGE		.627	.657	.522
2022 RECORD		34-27	40-21	25-26
2022 PERCENTAGE		.557	.656	.490
2021 RECORD		35-28	42-21	37-26
2021 PERCENTAGE		.556	.667	.586
2020 RECORD		36-18	34-20	28-26
2020 PERCENTAGE		.667	.630	.519
2019 RECORD		39-19	35-23	32-26
2019 PERCENTAGE		.672	.603	.552
ALL-TIME		342-210	350-202	277-221
ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE		.620	.634	.556

MATCHUP	WEIGHT CLASS	JOE "SUNTZU"	COLE	DRAKE
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (-325) vs. Sean O'Malley (+260)	Bantamweight Championship	~~O'Malley~~	Dvalishvili	Dvalishvili
(C) Julianna Pena (+455) vs. Kayla Harrison (-625)	Women's Bantamweight Championship	Harrison	Harrison	Harrison
Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs. Joe Pyfer (-380)	Middleweight	Pyfer	Pyfer	Pyfer
Mario Bautista (+145) vs. Patchy Mix (-175)	Bantamweight	Bautista	~~Mix~~	Bautista
Vicente Luque (+215) vs. Kevin Holland (-265)	Welterweight	Holland	Holland	Holland

UFC 316 RECORD		4-1	4-1	5-0
2025 RECORD		19-9	18-10	19-9
2025 PERCENTAGE		.679	.643	.679
2024 RECORD		40-24	40-24	43-21
2024 PERCENTAGE		.625	.625	.672
2023 RECORD		41-26	44-23	36-31
2023 PERCENTAGE		.612	.657	.537
2022 RECORD		38-23	39-22	39-22
2022 PERCENTAGE		.623	.639	.639
2021 RECORD		38-25	43-21	17-14
2021 PERCENTAGE		.603	.672	.548
2020 RECORD		36-18	N/A	N/A
2020 PERCENTAGE		.667	N/A	N/A
2019 RECORD		34-24	N/A	N/A
2019 PERCENTAGE		.586	N/A	N/A
ALL-TIME		283-168	181-98	154-97
ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE		.627	.649	.614

THE PICKERS

Jon Litterine: RotoWire lead MMA beat writer and scribe for our weekly DrafKings preview. Lead analyst on the RotoWire MMA Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @JonLitterine.

Jake Letarski: RotoWire.com Operations Manager, plus MMA and NCAA Hoops Senior Editor. Host on the RotoWire MMA Podcast and guest on the RotoWire Fantasy Football Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @RotoJake.

Chris Olson: Contributor at RotoWire to "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," as well as The MMA Mashup, DFS Baseball, a MMA gambling columnist and fight recaps. Follow him on Twitter at @RealChrisOlson.

Joe "SunTszu": Known more commonly by his Twitter handle @SunTszu, Joe is a Hedge Fund Executive by day and high-volume DFS player by night. He is a 2x "Bracket Challenge" & "Gotham qualifier. You can also find him as one of the original contributors of "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," a DFS-centric video breakdown. He is also a co-creator of the "Creating Alpha in DFS" podcast.

Cole Shelton: Cole Shelton is a full-time sports writer focusing on MMA. His work has appeared on BJPenn.com, CBC Sports, Sports Betting Dime and Blue Jays Nation. He currently pens the MMA Best Bets column on RotoWire. Follow him on Twitter at @ColeShelton91.

Drake Burden: Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities. Follow him on Twitter at @DBurdz.

RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jake Letarski plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotojakeski, DraftKings: RotoJakeSki.