Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 321
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 321 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 294-126-1 ~ Dog Picks 46-33-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Mateusz Rebecki +125
Bet of the Week Record: 22-12-1 +2028
DFS Lock of the Week: Jailton Almeida - 27-5
Fanduel Captain: Almeida/Haqparast
Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) v. Ciryl Gane (13-2-0)
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (11 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Explosive and technical heavyweight who blends boxing with quick level-changes
- Excellent timing and fight IQ; prefers a fast pace and early pressure
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 decisions, 4 submissions)
- Elite movement and distance control; works behind a piston jab and kicks
- Struggles under sustained wrestling pressure or chaotic exchanges
DFS Perspective: Aspinall's speed and grappling advantage make him the preferred DFS side. Gane's counter-striking offers tournament volatility, but Aspinall's finishing upside and wrestling control provide a safer and higher-ceiling play for both cash and GPP lineups.
UFC 321 Pick: Aspinall
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Virna Jandiroba (22-3-0) v. Mackenzie Dern (15-5-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (1 KO/TKO, 14 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Elite grappler and former Invicta FC champion with suffocating top control
- Relentless in scrambles but limited striking and slower footwork at range
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (8 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Dangerous submission artist with improving Muay Thai and sharper boxing fundamentals
- More aggressive with forward pressure and leg kicks; thrives in wild exchanges or clinch transitions
DFS Perspective: Dern's continued striking development and ability to dictate where the fight goes make her the preferred DFS side. Jandiroba's positional control can stall scoring, but Dern's improved durability and submission threat in any position create a higher ceiling. Expect Dern to mix damage and grappling more effectively this time, offering both finishing upside and steady scoring through activity.
UFC 321 Pick: Dern
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0) v. Mario Bautista (16-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (2 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Exceptional control grappler with fluid striking built around kicks and distance management
- Mixes wrestling and movement seamlessly; rarely out of position defensively
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 16 wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with strong clinch work and deceptive ground game
- Relies on volume and pressure but can be vulnerable to elite takedown chains
DFS Perspective: Nurmagomedov remains one of the safest DFS plays on the card. His pace, control and submission threat provide multiple scoring paths, while Bautista's resilience may extend the fight enough for solid output. Bautista's best chance lies in early pressure, but Nurmagomedov's relentless grappling and defensive composure should secure a dominant performance with high floor and ceiling potential.
UFC 321 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Alexander Volkov (38-11-0) v. Jailton Almeida (22-3-0)
- Height: 6'7" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 38 wins (24 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Towering kickboxer with clean straight punches and strong takedown defense
- Controls range with precision and punishes reckless entries with intercepting strikes
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (8 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 1 decision)
- Dynamic grappler with elite-level top control and smooth transitions to back takes
- Limited striking depth but explosive entries and heavy ground pressure once secured
DFS Perspective: This matchup comes down to whether Almeida can close the distance and impose his grappling before Volkov finds his rhythm. Volkov's size, jab and takedown defense make him a live underdog, especially in striking-heavy exchanges. Almeida's ceiling remains elite through control and finish potential, but his floor plummets if the fight stays standing. It's a slight lean to Almeida for GPPs, while Volkov offers sneaky leverage in DFS tournaments.
UFC 321 Pick: Almeida
Aleksander Rakic (14-5-0) v. Azamat Murzakanov (15-0-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Tall, precise striker who excels at maintaining range with kicks and long combinations
- Strong defensive fundamentals but often hesitant to engage after early exchanges
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Compact pressure fighter with explosive hands and powerful counters inside the pocket
- Durable, relentless, and thrives in chaos — particularly when opponents back up
DFS Perspective: Murzakanov's pressure and power make him the preferred DFS play. While Rakic's reach and technique could frustrate him early, Murzakanov's ability to close distance and land heavy combinations creates huge finish upside. If he can drag Rakic into a brawl or catch him off balance, Murzakanov's knockout potential offers elite GPP value and strong leverage against a more popular striker.
UFC 321 Pick: Murzakanov
Nasrat Haqparast (18-5-0) v. Quillan Salkilld (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18 wins (10 KO/TKO, 8 decisions)
- Crisp technical striker with lightning hand speed and strong counter-punching instincts
- Excellent takedown defense and composure under pressure; thrives in boxing range
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Tall, rangy Australian prospect with a sneaky kicking game and surprising power
- Aggressive early but can overextend and expose defensive gaps against elite counters
DFS Perspective: Haqparast's experience and sharp countering make him the preferred DFS side. Salkilld brings aggression and finish potential, but his defensive lapses could be punished by Haqparast's speed and timing. Expect Haqparast to control exchanges with accuracy and poise, likely securing a mid-tier scoring decision or late stoppage for consistent DFS value.
UFC 321 Pick: Haqparast
Ikram Aliskerov (16-2-0) v. Jun Yong Park (19-6-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16 wins (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Versatile and explosive middleweight with elite-level sambo pedigree
- Smooth striking transitions, excellent top control, and powerful finishing instincts
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Smart, compact striker who mixes in well-timed takedowns and strong clinch control
- High fight IQ and grit, but lacks the explosiveness to match elite athletes
DFS Perspective: Aliskerov's dynamic offense and fight-ending potential make him the clear DFS play. Park's durability and wrestling could slow the pace early, but Aliskerov's power and scrambling edge should take over as exchanges open up. Expect Aliskerov to push the tempo, threaten finishes on the mat or feet, and deliver one of the higher-ceiling DFS performances on the card.
UFC 321 Pick: Aliskerov
Mateusz Rebecki (20-3-0) v. L'udovit Klein (23-5-1)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 4 decision)
- Stocky powerhouse with suffocating grappling and heavy top control
- Relentless pressure and ground transitions; thrives in scrambles and close quarters
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 23 wins (9 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Explosive counterstriker with sharp boxing and slick head kicks
- Dangerous early, especially in exchanges, but can struggle to maintain pace against pressure
DFS Perspective: Rebecki's wrestling and grappling volume make him a strong DFS target. Klein's striking gives him a puncher's chance and GPP leverage, but Rebecki's durability and control game create a high-floor scenario. Expect Rebecki to weather early heat, secure takedowns and grind his way to dominant control time or a late finish, making it ideal for DFS scoring balance and upside.
UFC 321 Pick: Rebecki
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Abdul Al-Selwady (15-4-0) v. Matheus Camilo (9-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with a smooth blend of technical striking and tight grappling transitions
- Excellent balance and defensive awareness; rarely overextends in exchanges
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Aggressive finisher who thrives in chaos, mixing heavy hooks with slick submissions in scrambles
- Can be defensively wild, leaving counter openings against composed opposition
DFS Perspective: Al-Selwady's composure and ability to dictate pace make him the preferred DFS side. His measured striking and top control create a stable floor with finish upside if Camilo overcommits. Camilo offers GPP volatility with first-round danger, but Al-Sewady's sharper fundamentals and defensive poise give him the edge for consistent scoring potential.
UFC 321 Pick: Al-Sewady
Valter Walker (14-1-0) v. Louie Sutherland (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decision)
- Massive heavyweight prospect with crisp boxing and improved takedown defense
- Patient counterstriker who uses his jab and size to control distance and tempo
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Compact, explosive brawler with heavy low kicks and quick combinations in close range
- Brings relentless pressure but can struggle if kept on the end of long strikes
DFS Perspective: Walker's size, reach and technical advantages make him the preferred DFS side. His patient countering should expose Sutherland's defensive lapses as he presses forward. Still, Sutherland's early aggression and power create sneaky GPP appeal if he lands clean before Walker settles in. Expect Walker to take over after the opening minutes, either finding a late finish or racking up steady striking volume en route to a solid DFS score.
UFC 321 Pick: Walker
Jose Delgado (10-1-0) v. Nathaniel Wood (21-6-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Fast, explosive striker who brings aggressive combinations and heavy pressure early
- Dangerous in exchanges but still developing defensive awareness and composure under fire
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (7 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Technical, composed veteran with crisp boxing, leg kicks, and strong fight IQ
- Mixes striking and grappling seamlessly, excels in longer fights with adjustments mid-bout
DFS Perspective: Wood's experience and well-rounded skill set make him the preferred DFS play. Delgado's knockout threat makes him viable for GPPs, but Wood's pace, accuracy and durability give him the higher floor. Expect Wood to survive early danger, break Delgado down with volume and precision, and potentially secure a late stoppage or high-output decision win for reliable DFS scoring.
UFC 321 Pick: Wood
Chris Barnett (23-9-0) v. Hamdy Abdelwahab (4-1-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23 wins (18 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Wild, crowd-pleasing striker with unorthodox movement and surprising agility for his frame
- Limited gas tank and takedown defense; thrives only when chaos breaks loose
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 4 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 decisions)
- Olympic-level wrestler with explosive double-legs and raw physical strength
- Limited striking output and tends to slow drastically when forced into striking exchanges
DFS Perspective: This is not a fight to have high exposure to in DFS. Abdelwahab's grinding style and Barnett's inconsistency make this one messy and low-volume. Abdelwahab's control time could carry him to a decision, but it'll likely come with minimal fantasy output. Barnett's only DFS appeal lies in a KO moment. Low floor, low ceiling, and best avoided outside of contrarian large-field GPP lineups.
UFC 321 Pick: Barnett
Azat Maksum (15-2-0) v. Mitch Raposo (9-3-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with strong grappling and heavy top control
- Durable and efficient, but striking remains basic and predictable against faster opponents
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Quick, athletic scrambler with clean boxing combinations and sharp footwork
- Developing ground game, but can be bullied by physically stronger wrestlers
DFS Perspective: Maksum's wrestling volume and control make him the safer DFS choice. Raposo's speed and movement could create moments early, but Maksum's consistency in chaining takedowns and securing top time gives him a high floor. Raposo offers some contrarian GPP value through potential reversals and volume striking, yet Maksum's grind-heavy approach should produce steady scoring and possible finish upside if he dominates position.
UFC 321 Pick: Maksum
Jaqueline Amorim (10-1-0) v. Mizuki Inoue (15-6-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Explosive and well-rounded; powerful striking paired with elite jiu-jitsu control
- Improving cardio and fight IQ, allowing her to sustain pressure beyond the opening round
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (9 Submissions, 6 decisions)
- Durable and technically sound, but often struggles against superior athletes
- Can be forced into defensive exchanges and taken out of rhythm by heavy pressure
DFS Perspective: Amorim is the preferred DFS play with strong dominance potential. Her speed, grappling edge and improving striking make her a threat in every position. Expect her to control the pace, secure takedowns and push for a finish. Inoue's toughness could extend this fight, but Amorim's control time and damage output give her both a safe floor and elite GPP ceiling.
UFC 321 Pick: Amorim
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
