The UFC is in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, December 6, for a solid UFC 323 card, which is the final pay-per-view card of the ESPN era. The main event sees Merab Dvalishvili rematching Petr Yan for the bantamweight title.
UFC 323: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
Below, I'll share my UFC 323 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Maycee Barber (14-2) vs. Karine Silva (19-5)
Maycee Barber takes on Karine Silva on the prelims of the UFC 323 card, and I'm backing Barber to get her hand raised.
Barber is fighting for the first time since March of 2024 due to injuries, and although the layoff is a bit of a concern, all signs point to her being 100 percent healthy.
Barber is a good striker, who's also very strong and has the ability to wrestle if needed. Silva, meanwhile, has just 11 percent takedown defense, so I do think Barber will implement her wrestling to rack up control time and earn the favor of the judges.
Ultimately, I like Barber to land the more damaging shots on the feet and use her wrestling to edge out a pretty clear-cut decision.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Maycee Barber (-180)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (11-1-1) vs. Fares Ziam (17-4)
For my underdog pick at UFC 323, I'm taking Nazim Sadykhov to get his hand raised over Fares Ziam.
Sadykhov has been impressive and is coming off back-to-back statement wins over Nikolas Motta and Ismael Bonfim. Ziam has also been on a good run, including beating Sadykhov's teammate, Matt Frevola.
This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts, but the reason I like Sadykhov is due to his volume on the feet. He lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute, while Ziam lands just 2.85. In what should be a close fight that could go the distance, I'll take Sadykhov as the underdog, ultimately rolling with the fighter who throws and lands more volume.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Nazim Sadykhov (+114)
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Weight Class: Middleweight
Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) vs. Brunno Ferreira (14-2)
For my prop pick at UFC 323, I'm taking Marvin Vettori and Brunno Ferreira to go over 2.5 rounds in their middleweight scrap.
Vettori is as durable as they come, and although this is a step down in competition, he also isn't much of a finisher. The Italian has gone over 2.5 rounds in nine-straight fights, and all nine went the distance, whether win or lose.
Ferreira, meanwhile, is a finisher, but he will have a hard time finishing Vettori, as the elite-level middleweights couldn't even finish him. I like this one to go the distance, but the safer bet is the over 2.5 rounds, which is just -154 and a great price.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Marvin Vettori & Brunno Ferreira over 2.5 rounds (-154)
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Weight Class: Featherweight & bantamweight
Mairon Santos (16-1) vs. Muhammad Naimov (13-3)
Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) vs. Petr Yan (19-5)
For my parlay at UFC 323, I'm taking Mairon Santos and Merab Dvalishvili to get their hands raised Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Santos is opening up the card against Naimov, and this is a great spot for the Brazilian to get another win. Santos won TUF and is coming off a lopsided win over Sodiq Yusuff, and now, to me, is fighting Naimov, who's a step down from Yusuff. The Brazilian is a great striker, as he will be able to keep this fight standing and come away with a pretty clear-cut decision.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Dvalishvili to defend his bantamweight title in the main event of UFC 323 against Petr Yan. Dvalishvili is a tough out for anyone, as his cardio and wrestling are insane. When they fought two years ago, Dvalishvili dominated Yan with his wrestling, and I have a hard time thinking the Russian will be able to stuff those takedowns this time around. Dvalishvili will cruise to a lopsided decision.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Mairon Santos & Merab Dvalishvili parlay (-143)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 323 card.
- Maycee Barber (-180)
- Nazim Sadykhov (+114)
- Marvin Vettori-Brunno Ferreira over 2.5 rounds (-154)
- Mairon Santos & Merab Dvalishvili parlay (-143)
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