This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Saudi Arabia Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Saudi Arabia card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 17-10 ~ Dog Picks 3-2
Drake's Bet of the Week: Hamdy Abdelwahab -110 ~ 2-0 +268
DFS Lock of the Week: Terrance McKinney - 1-0
Fanduel Captain: McKinney/Pavlovich
Hamdy Abdelwahab (5-0-0) v. Jamal Pogues (11-4-0)
Hamdy Abdelwahab - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 0 wins
Jamal Pogues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not like what we have seen from Pogues through three fights. He pushed to a decision in all three and showed no urgency for anything more. Abdelwahab's first UFC fight was a win that was overturned, but he looked the part of an aggressive heavyweight. I expect him to have every advantage in this fight and put Pogues away early.
UFC 311 Pick: Abdelwahab
Bogdan Grad (14-2-0) v. Lucas Alexander (8-4-0)
Bogdan Grad - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Lucas Alexander - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Alexander does great when competing against someone willing to stand and box with him. Grad is making his debut and may oblige. If this is 15 minutes of striking, I expect Alexander to pull out the win. If Grad is wise, he will look for takedowns early and often, where he will have a considerable advantage. This is as close as it gets to a 50-50 fight, but Alexander has the slight edge.
UFC 311 Pick: Alexander
Jasmine Jasudavicius (12-3-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-4-1)
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 12 wins
Mayra Bueno Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Jasudavicius continues to improve with each fight and moved to 6-2 in the UFC with her latest win. Bueno Silva is trending in the opposite direction. Since her overturned win in 2023, she has lost consecutive fights pretty badly. She is always a submission threat, but Jasudavicius should have her way in this one.
UFC 311 Pick: Jasudavicius
Terrance McKinney (15-7-0) v. Damir Hadzovic (14-7-0)
Terrance McKinney - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
Damir Hadzovic - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Taking McKinney in any fight is a high-risk, high-reward play, given his penchant for finishing or getting finished in the first round. Thankfully, for this fight, he gets the aging Hadzovic. While he could still get knocked out, it is more likely that he will record another first-round finish. He will be heavily owned in DFS given the DFS point potential.
UFC 311 Pick: McKinney
Shamil Gaziev (13-1-0) v. Thomas Petersen (9-2-0)
Shamil Gaziev - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
Thomas Petersen - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight will likely be much closer than most anticipate, and I would not be surprised to see Peterson win. This should primarily play out on the feet, but Gaziev will likely shoot for a couple of takedowns throughout the fight. Either could knock the other out, but given Gaziev's overall body of work, I would give him the edge.
UFC 311 Pick: Gaziev
Muhammadjon Naimov (11-3-0) v. Kaan Ofli (11-3-1)
Muhammadjon Naimov - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Kaan Ofli - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I am going to write off Naimov's most recent loss, as he made a mistake and got punished for it. Ofli was destroyed in his debut against a lesser opponent and will likely struggle to get anything going in this fight. Naimov should get back on track, and I would not be surprised to see him dominate.
UFC 311 Pick: Naimov
Fares Ziam (16-4-0) v. Mike Davis (11-2-0)
Fares Ziam - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Mike Davis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an interesting fight. Ziam earned his fourth straight win and first UFC finish last time out. He is a highly defensive fighter and does not take many hits. Davis, who also won his fourth in a row, is much different, often putting himself in the pocket to bang away with his opponents. If Ziam can exact his typical game plan, he will make an excellent dog play. However, I think Davis finds more success than Ziam's past opponents and gets the job done.
UFC 311 Pick: Davis
Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0) v. Vinicius Oliveira (21-3-0)
Said Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 18 wins
Vinicius Oliveira - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 21
DFS Perspective: Nurmagomedov is great at finding ways to win. He excels at all aspects of the game and typically scores well in DFS wins. On the other side, Oliveira has looked excellent in both of his UFC fights and will likely keep this fight close. You will want a piece of both of these guys for mass-entry GPP contests. This should be a highly entertaining fight, and I will take my chances with the dog.
UFC 311 Pick: Oliveira
Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) v. Jair Rozenstruik (15-5-0)
Sergei Pavlovich - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 84" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 18 wins
Jair Rozenstruik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Pavlovich struggled with range in his last fight but will not have that issue here. He will have the reach advantage and likely the power and speed advantages as well. Rozenstruik has looked phenomenal in both of his last fights and if that carries on to this fight, Pavlovich could be in trouble. That said, If Pavlovich is legit, then this is a get-right spot where he should power through Rozenstruik within the first couple of rounds.
UFC 311 Pick: Pavlovich
Shara Magomedov (15-0-0) v. Michael Page (22-3-0)
Shara Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
Michael Page - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: If Page is going to win this fight, he needs to not screw around in the ring and use his reach advantage. Given how his first two UFC fights have gone, there is little trust. Magomedov has been the complete opposite. He is 4-0 in the UFC and looks better with each passing fight. He has already shown he can get inside the pocket against guys with a reach advantage, so I do not foresee it being a big issue here. Magomedov winning by decision is likely. However, a high score for DFS is not.
UFC 311 Pick: Magomedov
Israel Adesanya (24-4-0) v. Nassourdine Imavov (15-4-0)
Israel Adesanya - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 24 wins
Nassourdine Imavov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: If Adesanya is on the back nine and Imavov is a rising contender, Imavov should win this fight. Adesanya has lost three of his last four, all against top competition, but it was not until his most recent fight that age looked like it was catching up. It could have just been the pace, but it is difficult to say. Imavov has won three straight against great competition, but Izzy still represents his biggest task to date. If he can use his wrestling, he will have a considerable edge, but if this is several rounds of pure striking, Izzy will have every opportunity to show that he still has it. Both guys are worth playing in GPP contests, but I will side with the younger dog.
UFC 311 Pick: Imavov
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
