This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
A 13-fight card at the apex means 13 new opportunities for bettors and DFS players to potentially make money. We will attempt to facilitate good fortune by providing a full breakdown of the card across four platforms. Plays this week include one of the biggest dogs on the card going up against a powerhouse and a heavyweight who will look to put his favorite tactic to good use. Our betting line this week comes from William Hill and is accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ailin Perez ($7,600)
While she was unable to defeat the bigger, stronger, grappler in her UFC debut, Perez largely held her own against Stephanie Egger early, applying pressure and keeping up with the Judoka in scrambles on the ground. Hailey Cowan will relentlessly chase takedowns, but seems to struggle to get the fight to the ground consistently. This could end up being a sloppy fight with a lot of clinch fighting, which makes me opt for the salary reduction we get from choosing Perez.
Nikita Krylov ($8,700)
Ryan Spann's vicious knockout of Dominick Reyes in November has rightly turned some heads, but he has never beaten an opponent like Krylov, who will push a thunderous pace, mixing in takedowns with an underrated kickboxing game. Spann is live to find a submission off of his back here, as Krylov has shown himself to be a bit reckless in top position, but it's difficult to imagine "Superman" running over the Ukrainian fighter, as Krylov has been knocked out just once in 38 professional fights.
Andre Muniz ($9,100)
As the relative newcomer here, some may not be too keen to pay up for Muniz against a tested veteran like Brendan Allen, who is now 10 fights deep into his UFC career. There is a concern that the pressure of Allen could sap the gas tank of the Brazilian fighter, but I will bank on the athleticism and power of Muniz if this stays on the feet. While both are accomplished grapplers, I simply can't bet against the only man to submit the legendary Ronaldo Souza after 35 professional MMA fights.
Tatiana Suarez ($9,600)
Lest anyone forget how dominant Suarez was before injuries took her out of action, the 32-year-old's lowest DraftKings score in five UFC fights was 99 in her last bout with Nina Nunes in 2019. That kind of layoff may make Montana De La Rosa a punt play in GPPs, but Suarez has shown herself to be so much stronger than everyone she has faced that it's hard to imagine she won't be able to ragdoll this opponent in the same way. This seems particularly true when we note that Montana has suffered eight of her 12 losses by submission.
Don'Tale Mayes ($7,900)
This seems like a matchup made for Mayes, as he has pushed a grappling game in the Octagon. Augusto Sakai has lost in any number of ways during his four-fight skid, but the misfortune started when Alistair Overeem took him down three times en route to a ground-and-pound TKO. I expect Mayes to have success wrestling, but if he cannot, then I have no problem relying on his athleticism and kicking game against the more slow-footed boxer in Sakai.
Trevor Peek ($8,900)
I'm always a bit wary of fighters coming off the regional scene who simply want to flood their opponent with offense in the belief that they won't be able to keep up. I will put those feelings aside here, as I think Peek will be able to use his striking and wrestling to overwhelm Erick Gonzalez, who likes to take his time and set up shots in the pocket. Neither man is particularly concerned about defense, but Peek swarming the longer fighter should be able to mute Gonzalez's most dangerous attacks.
Nurullo Aliev ($8,800)
Aliev may prompt one to think of other grapplers from the Caucasus region, as he likes to throw big shots in order to back his opponent up and work his wrestling. Rafael Alves is an explosive, dynamic striker, but we have seen him slow down in past fights, making it hard to trust him against such a grinding style as Aliev will bring.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Jasmine Jasudavicius – 2.05 X Multiplier
Jasudavicius had a tough time with the footwork of Natalia Silva in her last fight, but Gabriella Fernandes likes to plant her feet and throw power shots, which should allow the Canadian fighter to stalk her opponent and look for takedowns against the cage. A 50 percent defensive striking rate may not seem ideal for this sort of matchup, but I will count on the ability of Jasudavicius to take a punch, as she has yet to be stopped by strikes in nine professional fights.
Yohan Lainesse 2.2 X Multiplier
I wasn't a big fan of what I saw from Mike Malott before he stepped into the cage with Mickey Gall, and that perception wasn't changed much by watching the BJJ fighter back up his Canadian opponent and bloody his nose with strikes. I was also a bit troubled by the way he pulls out of exchanges with his hands down and his eyes off his opponent. It may seem like I am burying the lead here, as Mallott is a powerful combination puncher who knocked Gall out, but I'm more than willing to take a shot with Lianesse, who is a fast, crisp striker who will mix wrestling into his attack.
Jose Johnson 2.05 X Multiplier
Johnson is a slick striker who may rely a bit too much on submissions from his back when taken down, but "Lobo Solitario" has shown good grappling defense in the past, always looking to get back to space and put his shots together. Garrett Armfield is a good, aggressive, wrestler, but gets hit far too much for me to be comfortable picking him here, especially since he has not shown tremendous accuracy in his takedown game.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Joe Solecki UNDER 2.0 Takedowns and Jordan Leavitt OVER 2.0 Takedowns
At the end of the day, these plays focus on necessity, as Solecki has shown himself a capable boxer and ground control artist, who doesn't often shoot for takedowns more than three or four times per fight. He will have his work cut out for him in trying to ground Carl Deaton, who appears very strong for this division, and should make things difficult by putting his opponent on the back foot.
By contrast, Leavitt's striking could generously be called a work in progress, which is likely why he shot nine times in his recent loss to Paddy Pimblett. Victor Martinez is a capable boxer, but tends to rely on his getup ability rather than focusing on defending takedown attempts.
Bets to Consider
Ode Osbourne (+130)
A dominating victory over the returning Jimmy Flick may have put some people on the Charles Johnson train, but I remain unconvinced. While Ode Osbourne has struggled with big punchers in the past, this doesn't exactly describe Johnson, who can allow his opponent to dictate terms inside the cage. I think Osbourne will be able to keep Johnson at bay as the longer fighter, while also keeping his opponent sharp by mixing in a takedown threat.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 70 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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