A 13-fight slate awaits us from the Apex this week, and we are here once again to break down every fight across four platforms to give bettors and DFS players their best shot at turning a profit. Picks this week include a fighter listed below the $7,000 threshold on DraftKings, as well as a Muay Thai aficionado looking to provide a rude welcome to the light heavyweight division. Our betting lines this week are taken from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Luana Santos ($8,300)
Juliana Miller is so wild and unstructured that it's difficult to pick her to win outside of an incredibly favorable matchup. While she will be able to use her jiu-jitsu against such an active wrestler in Santos, the controlled top pressure from the Brazilian will likely have "Killer" throwing up submission attempts that aren't particularly close, which will allow Santos to advance to more advantageous positions.
Rafael dos Anjos ($8,200)
Prior to his fight with Belal Muhammad, we had never really seen a committed grappler try and wrestle Vicente Luque. Given all the success "Remember the Name" had taking Luque to the floor, it's easy to imagine that the former lightweight champion can follow a similar path to victory. It's also worth noting that there's a question as to whether Luque should even be sanctioned to fight, as he is likely still recovering from a brain bleed he developed after his loss to Geoff Neal last August.
Jamie Pickett ($6,800)
I feel like my hand is being forced here, as Josh Fremd can be safely avoided against almost anyone on the roster at his current price of $9,400. That's not to say Pickett hasn't looked vulnerable in recent fights, but Fremd struggled to look good even in victory against Sedriques Dumas, bailing out of the pocket in response to strikes and finishing with a guillotine so effortless it draws comparisons to the fight between Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane. If Pickett is simply on his way out of the organization, Fremd could pay off as a contrarian play, but "Night Wolf" still features a nice jab and an ability to wrestle, which is enough for me to take a shot.
Jaqueline Amorim ($9,100)
Montserrat Ruiz is something of a throwback fighter, as her success or failure in the cage almost entirely hinges on whether she can execute head-and-arm throws. Once she gets to this position, "Conejo" is extraordinarily good at keeping it, however, we saw in her knockout loss to Amanda Lemos what can happen if she is forced to stay at range. While Amorim won't pack that kind of power, she is an experienced and aggressive grappler, which makes me think she will be ready for a throw that has been prevalent in women's MMA since the days of HOOKnSHOOT.
Polyana Viana ($7,500)
Striking has always been a means to an end for Viana, which made it all the more surprising when she knocked out Jinh Yu Frey with a combination of punches inside the first round. This purposeful striking will come in handy against Iasmin Lucindo, who likes to flood the pocket with offense and look for takedowns. Viana's range should make it more difficult for Lucindo to build on combinations, allowing "Dama de Ferro" to dictate where the bout takes place.
A.J. Dobson ($7,800)
I consider Dobson to be the most skilled winless fighter in the organization. As a slick boxer with a wrestling background, it's a bit surprising to me that he has yet to put a mark on the board, but he should find more joy against Tafon Nchukwi -- a sloppy, plodding fighter who has been knocked out in each of his last two fights. As long as he can stay with his footwork and mix up his attacks, Dobson should be able to get his hand raised here.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Da'Mon Blackshear OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes, Martin Buday Under 56.5 Significant Strikes, and Marcus McGhee UNDER 40.5 Strikes
Blackshear's grappling has come mostly by necessity during the course of his UFC run, but "The Monster" is perfectly comfortable having a kickboxing match from range. Jose Johnson should oblige him in this regard, leading to a total that comfortably exceeds our mark here.
The term "significant strikes" is very important for our next bout, as I fully expect Buday and Josh Parisian to have an exhausting clinch battle for the better part of 15 minutes. It's also worth noting that both of these men slow considerably as a fight progresses, which means the strikes from distance should be few and far between if someone doesn't go to sleep early.
The inevitable low strike total in this fight will have little to do with McGhee, as JP Buys will shoot with reckless abandon early and often. This generally leads to a binary situation where Buys either gets knocked out, or secures opponents on the ground. It's been the latter for "Young Savage" more often than not in his UFC career, but either way should result in a depressed significant strike total for McGhee.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Isaac Dulgarian – 1.95 X Multiplier
Dulgarian may have the perfect antidote to the grappling-heavy style of Francis Marshall, as he will constantly pressure forward and can throw heavy, accurate counter shots. Dulgarian is the much crisper striker in this matchup, while Marshall relies more on wearing his opponents' down. While he may be a debutante, Dugarian seems far too composed in the cage to be flustered by the moment.
Mike Breeden – 2.25 X Multiplier
In the space of a few months, Terrance McKinney has gone from an explosive knockout artist who dictates fights on his own terms, to someone who is made uncomfortable when he is not in complete control. We saw this most recently in his bout with Nazim Sadykhov, as McKinney seemed desperate to get takedowns from the opening bell and was getting hit hard whenever the fight was in space. Breeden will march forward and throw big shots at "T.Wrecks" while looking for takedowns if they present themselves. McKinney has always been a boom or bust fighter, but it's hard to trust him in his recent form, particularly as he is taking this fight on short notice.
Bets to Consider
Hakeem Dawodu wins via KO/TKO (+175)
Dawodu's reputation for going to decision may make this play seem risky, but he will be so much faster than Cub Swanson that it would surprise me if he didn't land a fight-altering blow at some point. The featherweight mainstay has looked more hurtable of late, having been finished by strikes in two of his last three fights. While Dawodu has had some peculiar losses of his own of late, he should be able to get this done with tools alone.
Khalil Rountree wins via KO/TKO (-134)
As a general rule, I believe moving from heavyweight to light heavyweight is a bad idea. There are very few exceptions to this, as fighters lose the advantages they had in a low-skill division by moving to a weight class full of superior athletes. In the case of Chris Daukaus, his hand speed was a big part of what got him those early knockouts in his UFC career. He now faces an opponent in Rountree who is not only fast and explosive but is rounding out his game with new techniques all the time. Unless he plans on wrestling, I predict Daukaus will find that his home in the UFC is as a heavyweight despite the rough patch he has hit of late.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 78 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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