Coke Zero 400 Preview: Fourth of July Fireworks

The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season holds the season offered 37 lead changes and was one of the most competitive events since the season-opener. The Daytona 500 also offered 20 lead changes, so we should be in for a hotly-contest race this weekend. Despite the pack racing that super speedways create, we still have lots of lead changes and parity in these restrictor-plate events. However, we also need to remember the 12 cars that DNF'd at Talladega is also a season high mark, and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too. So we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing. We should be in for that same style of fireworks in the Coke Zero 400 this weekend. The racing at Daytona at night always introduces a new dynamic to this style of racing. While there are many parallels we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this spring for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the restrictor-plate tracks. This information will for the foundation of our picks for this week's race. We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway. While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at restrictor-plate tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis. The data shown below covers the last 11 years or 23 races at Daytona International Speedway.

While he didn't win either race, Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had a strong presence in the two super speedway races earlier this season. Earnhardt qualified well but bad luck and accidents saddled the veteran driver with DNFs at both Daytona and Talladega. He'll be out for redemption this weekend. Given that the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet is a four-time winner at DIS, we have to give him his due respect in this one. Aside from the Chevrolet and Ford angles on this event, we'll need to keep a look out for the Toyota teams of Joe Gibbs Racing. Aside from Hamlin, his teammates Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards all have good history at the super speedways, and speed has not been a problem for the JGR teams on the larger ovals the last couple seasons. We'll take a look at recent history, and the 2016 Daytona 500 and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Our superspeedway specialist tops the contenders list this week. The four-time Daytona winner has a lot to prove in this Saturday night's Coke Zero 400. Earnhardt snapped a major dry spell at this track with his win in the 2014 Daytona 500, but he's been firing for effect ever since. He's won two of the last five Daytona events since that break through. Restrictor-plate racing requires a lot of experience and a lot of luck, and Earnhardt is one of the rare few who can "make" their own luck in this style of racing. His 10-career victories between Daytona and Talladega puts Earnhardt in a very elite class.

Denny Hamlin - Make no mistake, it's been an up-and-down season for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota. Hamlin does have the Daytona 500 victory, but his seven top-10 finishes add up to a subpar 11th-place ranking in the driver standings coming to Daytona this week. The good news is this could be where it all turns around for the Joe Gibbs Racing star. Hamlin has been stellar and has had great speed on these large ovals all the way back to the start of the 2014 season. He'll look to pull the season-sweep of Daytona in Saturday night's Coke Zero 400. Considering the speed that the No. 11 Toyota has shown on the restrictor-plate tracks the last couple seasons, he'll make a strong bid for the win.

Brad Keselowski - Coming off a subpar performance at the Sonoma road course, it would be a mistake to leave Keselowski off the contenders list this week. The Penske Racing star is a proven restrictor-plate racer, and has the pedigree to back that fact up. Keselowski is a four-time winner at the big oval in Talladega, and has shown the deft ability to avoid the "big one" during go time. While he's never tasted the thrill of victory at Daytona, the driver of the No. 2 Ford is starting to make some headway at this challenging oval. Keselowski has had great speed in both restrictor-plate races this season, and he netted the one victory at Talladega. This visit to Daytona could be a historic breakthrough for the Penske Racing star.

Kyle Busch - Busch has been consistently fast at both Daytona and Talladega this season. He's led a combined 31 laps between the two large oval events and he's the only driver in the series to come away with top-5 finishes in both. The fact that the No. 18 Toyota has been in the mix at crunch time in both superspeedway races this season is enough to warrant contender status this week. As to the history books, Busch is a one-time winner at Daytona International Speedway, although it has been some time ago since that victory. A lot of ups-and-downs have happened ever since. However, Busch has the speed and homerun potential to take this installment of the Coke Zero 400.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kevin Harvick - The veteran SHR driver has enviable career numbers racing at Daytona International Speedway. Harvick has two-career victories and 14 top-10 finishes at the historic speedway in Florida. The driver of the No. 4 Chevrolet has four top 10s in his last six starts on the restrictor-plate race tracks coming into this weekend. Harvick finished fourth in this season's Daytona 500, so he'll get another shot at victory lane this Saturday night. His career 47-perent top-10 rate at Daytona International Speedway puts him among some pretty elite company. He should make a strong and steady fantasy racing play at this high-risk oval.

Austin Dillon - It's been a pretty good season for the No. 3 Chevrolet team. Dillon has improved in many respects this year. There is good reason for an outperform start this weekend at Daytona. Restrictor-plate racing has been a strength of the young driver. Dillon has six-career starts at DIS with four top-10 finishes in those efforts. His success isn't just limited to Daytona, as he's had some good performances at Talladega as well. Dillon has four top-15 finishes in his six starts at the Alabama oval. That includes a career-best third-place finish in this May's GEICO 500. Considering how motivated this team will be to crack the top 10 this Saturday night, Dillon should put on a pretty good show.

Chase Elliott - The impressive rookie will be looking to make up for his disappointing finish in the season-opening Daytona 500. Elliott won the pole position for this season's Great American Race at Daytona, but was soon out of action when he lost control of the No. 24 Chevrolet and wrecked in the early stages of that event. The young driver would then go on to give us a glimpse of his superspeedway potential when the series visited Talladega a few weeks later and Elliott came away with another pole and this time a top-5 finish in the GEICO 500. Elliott will look to erase his Daytona 500 disappointment, and we believe he'll do it in a big way in Saturday's Coke Zero 400.

Kurt Busch - The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has enviable career numbers racing on the plate tracks. Busch cracks the top 5 at Daytona and a stunning 40-percent rate and the top 10 at an impressive 53-percent rate. He rides a three-race top-10 streak at this huge oval as the series comes to Daytona this weekend. That gives us great confidence in the No. 41 Chevrolet team this week. Busch has 10th- and eighth-place finishes in his two superspeedway starts this season. So the veteran driver has a lot of homerun potential in this event.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Daytona who can provide a solid finish

Joey Logano - Those young Penske Racing driver is carving out another fantastic season in the No. 22 Ford. Logano rides into Daytona weekend fifth in the overall driver standings, and with one victory to this point in the season. The good racing should continue for Logano this weekend at Daytona International Speedway. He sports some good finishing stats at the 2.5-mile superspeedway. He won last season's Great American Race in an impressive performance, and he finished sixth in this February's Daytona 500. Logano is poised to build on his recent success at Daytona International Speedway.

Martin Truex Jr. - The Furniture Row Racing veteran is riding a good string of performances after his top-5 finish at Sonoma this past week. Daytona will provide another opportunity to outperform, and a points boost to the No. 78 Chevrolet team. The encouraging sign has been this driver's performance on the big ovals this season. Truex has posted second- and 13th-place finishes at Daytona and Talladega during his good campaign of 2016. He very nearly won the Daytona 500 as he came to the stripe in a photo finish with Denny Hamlin's No. 11 Toyota. So it's a pretty safe bet he'll be a top-10 finisher in Saturday night's Coke Zero 400.

Carl Edwards - The Joe Gibbs Racing star put an end to his long Daytona dry spell with a top-5 finish in this season's Daytona 500. That performance snapped a six-race Daytona top-10 drought for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota. Edwards' top-5 finish the preceding fall at Talladega was a good precursor to his great effort in February's Great American Race. It seems that the veteran driver at this race team have turned the corner as far as restrictor-plate racing is concerned. Edwards should put up another good performance in this 400-mile battle under the lights.

Ryan Newman - The Richard Childress Racing veteran is running well coming to Daytona International Speedway. Newman is fresh off a top-10 finish at Sonoma this past weekend. The driver of the No. 31 Chevrolet will be riding a wave of momentum coming into the Coke Zero 400. His super speedway work has been strong of late. He has two top-10 and four top-15 finishes in his last five starts on the huge ovals. That includes a steady 11th-place finish in February's Daytona 500. Newman should be a driver to keep an eye on at the historic Florida oval this Saturday night.

Trevor Bayne - The 2011 Daytona 500 winner has begun to resurrect his superspeedway racing ability. After winning the Great American Race five years ago, he's been largely irrelevant in these big oval events the last few years. However, that began to change in this event one year ago. Bayne had great speed in his No. 6 Ford and qualified fifth on the starting grid. He would go onto finish a strong ninth in last season's Coke Zero 400. Bayne would really open eyes in our last superspeedway event. He raced up front and led 22 laps at Talladega this spring in a strong bid for the win. Bayne would go onto finish 10th in that last restrictor-plate event. He'll be good again this weekend at Daytona.

Ryan Blaney - The Wood Brothers Racing rookie has made good strides in his big oval racing the last year. Blaney has two top-10 finishes in his last four outings at the superspeedways, and while both those came at Talladega the improvement has also been apparent at Daytona. The driver of the No. 21 Ford qualified seventh and finished 19th in this season's Daytona 500. Speed and qualifying well has not been a problem for this single-car race team. Blaney has been improving steadily on the huge ovals of Daytona and Talladega and we should see those results in the Coke Zero 400.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson - The three-time Daytona winner has always battled consistency issues on the large ovals. Johnson finished runner-up in this event one year ago, but the three superspeedway races since have all been finishes outside the top 15. That includes his subpar 16th-place finish in this season's Daytona 500. The No. 48 team certainly brings homerun potential to the race track each time they unload the car. However, certain tracks are not "locks" for Johnson to have a good performance. Daytona International Speedway is one of those on-again off-again type of tracks. It's best to save a start for him later in the schedule and give him a bye this weekend.

Danica Patrick - While her Stewart Haas Racing teammates, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch, make excellent fantasy racing starts this weekend the same cannot be said of the No. 10 Chevrolet team. Patrick grabbed one pole position and a pair of top-10 finishes in her first five starts at the Florida speedway. However, her last three starts at the track have been forgettable. Patrick's combined performance at Daytona and Talladega the last two seasons has been off for that matter. With no finishes inside the top 20 in those last six events and three crashes and DNF's in three of the last four, it's been quite challenging for Patrick.

Kyle Larson - The biggest factor of restrictor-plate racing success is experience, and that's simply the one thing that Larson lacks in his extensive toolbox. The impressive young driver has torn up the Sprint Cup Series to this point in his three-season career. However, the super speedways still pose a major challenge for the No. 42 Chevrolet team. Larson has only one top-10 finish in his first five starts at Daytona. During the span he also has three DNF's and an average finish of 30.8. Those numbers rank him among the bottom tier of the Sprint Cup Series drivers on the plate tracks. Talladega has been equally as puzzling for the CGR driver. There's little doubt that Larson will soon figure these big ovals out, but don't pin your fantasy racing success on him doing it this weekend.

Matt Kenseth - The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had it pretty tough this season, punctuated by his 20th-place finish at Sonoma Raceway last week. Kenseth will pull himself up and dust himself off for this Saturday night's Coke Zero 400. However, the hopes for a rebound have to be slim when the numbers are put in context. Kenseth's last six superspeedway starts have shown that the No. 20 team has plenty of speed, but no luck to finish these races. The veteran driver has only one top-15 finish in the last six combined Daytona and Talladega events and an average finish of 24.3 across those starts despite 83 laps led. The breaks have simply not gone Kenseth's way of late in this style of racing.