F1 DFS Picks and Monaco Grand Prix Preview

Monaco Grand Prix

Location: Monte Carlo, Monaco
Course: Circuit de Monaco
Course Length: 3.34km
Laps: 78

Race Preview

F1 returns after a longer than expected layoff following the rightful cancellation of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. We now head to Monaco, one of the most anticipated and tradition-rich events each year. As we enter the weekend, Red Bull has been even more dominant than expected, finishing all but one race as both the first and second-place finishers. After only five events, it's all but certain that they will claim both the Driver and Constructors' championships. Aston Martin has been the surprise team, and they're currently six points ahead of Mercedes for second place, led by Fernando Alonso. Mercedes had a significant upgrade planned for Imola, so if they are to overtake Aston Martin and make Red Bull so much as sweat, the next few races will be the time to see it. This likely isn't the weekend to see the changes pay off, though. Finally, Ferrari will look to join the fray after a disappointing start to the season as Charles Leclerc will get to enjoy a home race.

Key Stats at Circuit de Monaco

• Races: 71
• Winners from pole: 30
• Winners from top-5 starters: 68
• Winners from top-10 starters: 70

Previous 10 Monaco Winners

2022- Sergio Perez 
2021 - Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Daniel Ricciardo
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 - Nico Rosberg
2013 - Nico Rosberg
2012 - Mark Webber

As the stats above suggest, qualifying, pole position and track position are vital to a good finish this weekend. The course runs through the streets of Monaco and is extremely narrow throughout the entirety of the lap, making it very difficult to pass. The most obvious example came in 2018, when Daniel Riccardo limped through the majority of the race on a partially blown engine and still managed to retain the lead. Track position is imperative, so any mistake is likely to end a driver's chance of victory. As is typically the case, Pirelli has sent the softest set of tires to the track due to the limited grip and wear that the course creates.  

DraftKings Value Picks

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Max Verstappen - $14,400
Sergio Perez- $11,800

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Charles Leclerc - $9,600
Fernando Alonso- $9,400
Lewis Hamilton - $8,800
George Russell - $8,400

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Lance Stroll- $6,400
Pierre Gasly - $6,000
Esteban Ocon- $5,600

DraftKings Tier 4 Values

Yuki Tsunoda - $4,600
Kevin Magnussen - $4,200
Nico Hulkenberg- $3,800

My Picks

Captain – Max Verstappen - $21,600
Fernando Alonso- $9,400
Valtteri Bottas - $4,800
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,600
Kevin Magnussen- $4,200
Constructor – Alpine- $5,300

Max Verstappen is the best driver on the grid without much question and he has the best machinery. It'll cost you to roster him, and on a track where every mistake is magnified, there is justification to fade him. It's tempting to say Verstappen is the perfect driver, but he'll likely slip a few times this season. Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez checks in significantly cheaper and would be in the best position to take advantage of any troubles or mistakes that Verstappen experiences across the weekend.

Alonso has qualified second in two of five races and in a race determined nearly entirely by track position that's an important factor. As the fourth-highest-priced driver, he checks in at a value.

Building through two high-priced drivers is a risky approach, both due to the way mistakes are magnified and because it forces pay downs at multiple other roster spots. It's not apparent from the two points he's accrued, but Yuki Tsunoda has taken a significant step forward this season. He's finished 11th or 10th in every race and has largely cut the costly mistakes out his driving while showing off plenty of pace in a subpar car. If he can keep the same level of performance this weekend, he'll be great value.

Haas has proven quick on one-lap pace, but they fade over the course of an entire race. Hulkenberg could be the real value of the duo, as he's reached Q3 in three of five races and was knocked in Q1 only once. Magnussen has reached Q2 twice and Q3 once.

Bottas simply fits the price range left and is an example of the sacrifice that has to be made to build through Verstappen and one other elite driver. Keeping the lineup entirely the same with the exception of playing Perez as captain rather than Verstappen leaves $8,800, and the ability to add a third elite driver.

BestBets (Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)

Race Winner- Max Verstappen (+145), Charles Leclerc (+270), Fernando Alonso (+470), Sergio Perez (+750)

Top-Six Finish – Kevin Magnussen (+2200), Nico Hulkenberg (+2200)

Points Finish – Yuki Tsunoda (+195)

Team of winning driver – Red Bull (-110)

Much of the logic of these picks has already been covered, but on a track like Monaco we should be focusing on the fastest teams, teams capable of posting one fast lap to get track position, and drivers known for being quick. It's difficult to back Ferrari given everything in the last calendar year plus, which is ongoing miscues from both team and driver. However, there's no denying that Leclerc is one of the most talented drivers on the grid, and he's won pole position in back-to-back races at his home circuit.

Haas typically qualifies well and has strong one-lap pace. They struggle over time, but this is the track best suited for them to qualify well and keep position rather than fading into the field.

Finally, there's never been any doubt that Tsunoda is extremely quick when he's on his game. This year, he's cut down on some of the mental errors and other mistakes that have prevented him from showing that pace more consistently in the past. He's been in points contention every race weekend this year.