This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
FireKeepers Casino 400
Location: Brooklyn, Mich.
Course: Michigan International Speedway
Format: 2.0-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 200
NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Preview
Last week's visit to Richmond went caution free until the final scheduled lap. The late caution set up a barnstormer of a finish where Austin Dillon, who had put together the best race of his season, barged his way through Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on his way to victory. The controversial win left Dillon with an unlikely spot in the playoffs and plenty of criticism for his bulldozer moves to the victory but only temporarily. Following the race, NASCAR stripped Dillon of the playoff spot and 25 championship points for the driving. On-track retribution had been promised and everyone will wait to see when and if Hamlin and Logano offer their payback to the No. 3. This week, the series attempts to put the controversy behind it and turns its attention to high-speed Michigan International Raceway and the FireKeepers Casino 400. The lone season visit to this 2.0-mile oval comes with championship implications as it is one of just three stops on the way to finalizing the 16 playoff contenders. With Dillon's exclusion, Chris Buescher holds the 16th and final playoff spot due to a tie-breaker with Ross Chastain. Not far ahead of both of those drivers is Bubba Wallace, who is just three points ahead. Every stage point and finishing position will matter in the coming weeks, and Sunday's 400-mile affair will only serve to raise the temperature as the playoffs loom.
Key Stats at Michigan International Speedway
- Number of races: 106
- Winners from pole: 21
- Winners from top-5 starters: 63
- Winners from top-10 starters: 79
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 7
- Fastest race: 173.997 mph
Previous 10 Michigan Winners
2023 - Chris Buescher
2022 - Kevin Harvick
2021 - Ryan Blaney
2020 II _ Kevin Harvick
2020 I - Kevin Harvick
2019 fall - Kevin Harvick
2019 spring - Joey Logano
2018 fall - Kevin Harvick
2018 spring - Clint Bowyer
2017 fall - Kyle Larson
Michigan International Speedway is a fast and wide 2.0-mile oval that requires as much power as the engines can offer. The track's long full-throttle straights encourage drafting but place extra emphasis on clean air for handling through the long turns. The track does have a preferred line, but the wide racing surface enables drivers to try different lines to improve their handling and lap times. Drivers can run the top, bottom, and middle as their car changes throughout a fuel run, but being in clean air will be one of the most important goals throughout the race. Simply placing one's car in the right spot through a turn can block oncoming challenges from behind, disrupting another driver's preferred line. The long lap distance means pitting under green at Michigan is less of a penalty than shorter tracks, too. That characteristic makes fuel and tire strategy a path that teams can use to try to get ahead. Multiple races at this track in the past have come down to fuel mileage, but caution periods can force pit strategies to converge. Ford has won the last nine Michigan races and only two drivers have started outside of the top 12 and won since 2016.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the FireKeepers 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $10,700
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
Ryan Blaney - $10,300
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Christopher Bell - $9,800
Tyler Reddick - $9,600
Chase Elliott - $9,300
Brad Keselowski - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Joey Logano - $8,800
Chris Buescher - $8,600
Ty Gibbs - $8,400
Bubba Wallace - $8,300
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ross Chastain - $8,100
Alex Bowman - $7,800
Josh Berry - $7,200
Erik Jones - $6,700
NASCAR DFS Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Ryan Blaney - $10,300
Brad Keselowski - $9,000
Joey Logano - $8,800
Ross Chastain - $8,100
Austin Cindric - $7,000
Erik Jones - $6,700
Ford has won the last nine Cup Series races at Michigan, and one of the hottest Ford drivers this season has been Ryan Blaney (DK $10,300, FD $12,000). The defending champion is also a former Michigan winner who finished ninth or better in his last five Michigan attempts. Blaney also hasn't finished lower than 11th since New Hampshire. Another Ford contender is Brad Keselowski (DK $9,000, FD $11,500). The Michigan native craves a win at his home track. He made it to Victory Lane here last season as an owner with Chris Buescher, but Keselowski wants to win as a driver. The former champion has 14 top-10 finishes from 26 career Michigan starts and finished fourth in this race last season. Joey Logano (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) fits a similar mold. Victory was stolen from him a week ago, and he will want to make up for that this week. He is a three-time Michigan winner who finished 14th in last years visit.
The option tire introduced by Goodyear last week enabled Ross Chastain (DK $8,100, FD $7,800) to move forward to finish fifth despite starting 22nd. He won't have that same strategy available this week at Michigan, but this has been a better track for him. Chastain led a combined 45 laps in the last two Michigan races and finished seventh last year after starting on the front row. Considering Ford's success at this track, Austin Cindric (DK $7,000, FD $6,500) should also be considered for certain rosters this week. The Team Penske driver has a win and is preparing for the playoffs, and this week's race could be one where he make an impact. He finished this race in 12th last year despite starting 20th. The Penske Ford power should be an advantage this week, which potentially makes Cindric a good option this week. Finally, another Michigan native, Erik Jones (DK $6,700, FD $5,200) should be on fantasy radars. His average Michigan finish from 11 career starts is 15.2 and he finished in the top 10 in the last two. Another top-10 this week would be icing on the cake of the week he signed a multi-year extension to continue driving for Legacy Motor Club.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
Tyler Reddick - $9,600
Bubba Wallace - $8,300
Alex Bowman - $7,800
Josh Berry - $7,200
Michael McDowell - $6,600
Toyota has not won at Michigan since Matt Kenseth visited Victory Lane back in 2015. Prior to that, you have to look back to 2011 to find the second most recent Toyota victory at the track. For those reasons, Denny Hamlin (DK $10,500, FD $13,500) looks a bit riskier this week than others. Still, Hamlin has been one of the most competitive racers in the field this season and he finished in the top 15 in every Michigan race since 2018. Tyler Reddick (DK $9,600, FD $12,500) has been knocking on the door of another 2024 victory, too. He hasn't finished lower than sixth since Iowa in June. However, Reddick has never finished in the top 10 at this track and was 30th last year despite leading seven laps. Michigan has been better to Bubba Wallace (DK $8,300, FD $8,200), though. Reddick's teammate led 23 combined laps in the last two races at the track and scored a runner-up finish in 2022. While Toyota and 23XI Racing haven't had the best Michigan results, momentum right now appears to be on their side. Chevrolet hasn't been as successful at Michigan as Ford, but they've been better than Toyota. That is why Alex Bowman (DK $7,800, FD $8,000) may come into play for fantasy rosters this week. He dropped out of last year's Michigan race with steering trouble, but that was only after he led 19 laps. He finished ninth in 2022 and has two other top-10s from 14 starts at the track.
Bringing Ford performance to the higher-risk lineup are Josh Berry (DK $7,200, FD $7,000) and Michael McDowell (DK $6,600, FD $6,000). Berry crashed out of this race last season, but he finished sixth or better in all three of his Xfinity Series starts at the track. He finished 14th last time out at Richmond, and will be heading to Wood Brothers Racing for the 2025 season. McDowell has also been on a bit of an upswing recently with three finishes of 16th or better from the last four races. This will be his 18th series start at this track and his best finish of those was 20th in 2021.
