This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
The Memorial Day race weekend was a letdown primarily due to weather, but we'll march on to the next Enjoy Illinois 300 NASCAR race at World Wide Technology Raceway (aka Gateway) this Sunday. We have a limited sample at the track, as it has only been run since 2022. It's a short, flat track, but its unique feature is that it's longer than most comparable tracks at 1.25 miles per lap. That makes it somewhat difficult to compare it to other tracks, though New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix provide at least some guidance.
Kyle Larson under 36.5 NASCAR Points (fourth place or better with no stage wins)
Typically, I want to rely heavily on trends, driver ratings and other stats to make my selections, but in Larson's case, considering his circumstances this week may be the best way to evaluate. Not only did he endure an exhausting week physically as he attempted the double over Memorial Day weekend, but he then went through a lot emotionally as a speeding penalty took him out of contention at the Indy 500 and weather ensured he never even got the chance to get on the track at the Coca-Cola 600. He shared some of his sadness of how the weekend went down on social media and has since heard the entire motor racing world debate whether he should receive a waiver to compete in the playoffs despite not starting, and ultimately not participating in, a major Cup Series event. That's a pile of distractions, and his projection remains ridiculously high. If you want the more scientific approach, Larson has only a 78.6 driver rating at Gateway in the two races here, though he did finish fourth in 2023.
Christopher Bell under 35.5 NASCAR points (fifth place or worse with no stage wins)
Bell is coming off of his second "win" of the season, though it came in a rain-shortened race. There's no doubt he carries a ton of speed, but he's also prone to mistakes and that's reflected in his resume this season. Despite two wins and four top-five finishes, his average finish is 16.6 and he's finished 30th or worse on five occasions. He's a volatile driver prone to mistakes, so I'm always inclined to take his under. Bell has a decent track record at Gateway with 11th and ninth-place finishes, but his projection this week is particularly ambitious.
Brad Keselowski over 31.5 NASCAR points (ninth place or better with no stage wins)
When folks around the industry have talked about the rise of Ford in recent weeks, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are likely the first names to come to mind. However, based on performance, it should be Keselowski. He's finished inside the top five in four of his last six races and six times overall this season. For those looking to comparable tracks, BK has a fourth-place finish at Phoenix this season and was eighth at Richmond.
Joey Logano over 32.5 NASCAR points (eighth place or better with no stage wins)
Kyle Busch over 30.5 NASCAR points (10th place or better with no stage wins)
Given the limited sample we have at World Wide Technology Raceway, it's a bit risky to bet significantly on track history. However, both Logano and Busch have been excellent here. Bush has a driver rating of 137.6 in his two races, leading 187 of a possible 480 laps across the two years. He won the race in 2023 and finished second in 2022. Perhaps he'll just never find his pace this year, but this would be a good race for him to do so.
Logano's track record isn't quite as dominant, but he won the inaugural race in 2022 and finished third last year while tallying driver ratings over 100 on both occasions.
